KevinCoxItem


Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis for Belmont, merely go back one page.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 9/19 - Woodbine - Canadian International & Woodbine Mile

 

 Race 9

1.Bluegrass Parkway

2.Walton Street ( GB )

3.Desert Encounter ( Ire )

#4 BLUEGRASS PARKWAY got up late in the game to win a listed stakes at the Pea Patch about six weeks back, and historically speaking, this one has lost by just 2 & 1 lengths in both "3rd off the layoff" engagements. Fella will need some pace to cut into, but picks up the best rider here, and is anything but hopeless at 10-1. #2 WALTON STREET (GB) has amassed a decent resume' oversees, is 11:4-2-2-1 when making left handed turns, and gets the wonder drug for the first time. #3 DESERT ENCOUNTER (IRE) completes the "Budweiser/Newcastle/Guinness" triple based on having won the last two renditions of this race.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-6-7

 

      Race 10

1.Duke of Hazzard ( Fr )

2.Set Piece ( GB )

3.Change of Control

#9 DUKE OF HAZZARD (FR) ( How about that theme song from the extremely popular show !! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMI6etur0d4 ) was a bit disappointing in the most recent at Goodwood, and while he's been camera shy the last couple'a years, good ol' boy totes the lightest impost of his career, is 3:1-1-1 over firm ground, and has been a part of the super the last three times he's been on a left handed course. #5 SET PIECE (GB) has been "miraculous" since switching over to the Cox barn, having won 6 of 11 ( four of 'em stakes ) after winning just one stake overseas. Should be rolling late. #6 CHANGE OF CONTROL has hit the board in his last septet under a myriad of circumstances, and that's reason enough to include.  OFF TURF: 9-6-3-5-1 

 
Belmont            ( Current ): 4-18        ( $50.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( 0% )   Favorites   Win %:      1-18     ( 5.7% )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 6-36        ( $54.40 )   Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:    16-36     ( 44.4% )


Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


  CoxLA2017