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We had a positive R.O.I. for opening week here, so let's see if we can keep the mojo going !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 9/23

 

Race  1

1.Devious Mo 

2.Golani Brigade 

3.Casalsa

#2 DEVIOUS MO was an okay third when finishing two spots behind a next out winner in an off the turf event up north, and gets an upgrade in the jockey department today, while being backed by a solid DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 60 months, Rudy Rod is a swift 10 for 30 with locally based mid level dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta 14-50 days back ( ridden by Irad ). #3 GOLANO BRIGADE was taken seven wide in a seven horse field by Castellano last time out ( Nurse ! ), and he gets the boot today for a rider off to a crisp start at the stand. Lone "second off the layoff" try over this surface yielded a 3rd place finish, and we like this one's ability to send of rate a bit. #1 CASALSA comes in today off a lifetime best effort, and while a bounce is always possible, even something thin the middle of the last two efforts should be good enough. 

 

Race  2

1.Fort Washington

2.Street Vendor

3.Daunt

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #3 FORT WASHINGTON has a couple of nicely tucked a way crisp morning moves for today's initial afternoon departure from the gate, is a January foal facing a field of younger competitors, and has excellent bloodlines for this sorta deal. Note that the jockey/trainer combo have won 5 of their last 8 in Elmont, and look at these prices -- $6, $5, $7 x 2 & $68 !  #2 STREET VENDOR was a bit tardy to the party when starting things out on 8/15, but overcame that to rally strongly in securing 20% of the pot. 75K bred animal went for more than 6 1/2 times that amount at auction, so no reason to believe the last was a fluke. #7 DAUNT outran his 34-1 offering when losing by just over two lengths in the August 28th bow, & gets a slight boost in the jock area.  OFF TURF: 7-3-9-1-10(MTO)

 

Race  3

1.Mahaamel

2.Chowda

3.Will Sing for Wine

#1 MAHAAMEL has had some issues at the start in his last troika, but on the whole , possesses the best body of work in the field, and that incudes two strong efforts at Big Sandy. Logical. #4 CHOWDA nearly went all the way in a NYB stakes event up at the Lakes 31 days in the rear, and after being laid up three straight times, it's encouraging to see this one right back in action off that route; may land a minor share. #3 WILL SING FOR WINE got his Polaroid taken in his sole 2nd off the shelf jammie on the sand, and can rebound if able to have a cleaner trip than the most recent engagement. 

 

Race  4 

1.Boru

2.Rocking the Boat

3.Vettori Kin ( GB )

#7 BORU is an extremely consistent sort who's been a part of the superfecta in 13 of his last 14 outings, and that includes a 6:1-4-0 mark at today's distance of ground. There was a voided claim two back, so it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. #4 ROCKING THE BOAT showed little in the initial turf try, but we always give a runner two chances under a particular set of circumstances to prove themselves, and this one has some decent pedigree for the green stuff. Fella needs to win in order for a profit to be shown, should a claim ensue, so we're betting this one is cranked up. #3 VETTORI KIN (GB) is another who's "out of jail" after the recent purchase, and eight year old could be coming late with any pace to cut into.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8-1-9

 

Race  5

1.Convertible Freeze

2.Excursionniste

3.Juggler

#6 CONVERTIBLE FREEZE was in the rear with the gear when starting things out over the summer, but there's a ( uncharacteristic ) bullet gate breeze since, and not only did the paternal grandsire finish second in his only turf attempt ( a G1 ), but the maternal grandsire had a win & a runner up finish ( a G2 ) in his sole starts on the synthetic. May be a rare overlay for this barn. #7 EXCURSIONNISTE had a boatload of trouble when putting his working papers to use a bit over a month back, but managed to procure the show dough anyway, and has to be left in the mix. #9 JUGGLER has yet to miss a super, and now has a hood affixed for the 1st time.  OFF TURF: 8-4-9-1-2

 

Race  6 

1.Montauk Summer ( AE )

2.Bar Fourteen

3.Determned Fury 

We don't have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly.  #1A MONTAUK SUMMER (AE) needs one to get out in order to get in, but should that happen, would be toting along a solid, overall turf record, as well as a gutsy nose victory the only time he was in a second off the shelf heat. #2 BAR FOURTEEN has a bunch of early zip, and went coast to coast like Nutella on toast in his one and only turf dash ( which came on this course ). #7 DETERMINED FURY is a fairly consistent sort who gets a better jockey in the stirrups for today's 3rd off the respite affair.  OFF TURF: 11-10-1-9-6

 

Race  7

1.Got the Gold

2.V Pattern

3.Lucky Brody

Place an upwards arrow alongside the Beyers of #4 GOT THE GOLD, as this one is improving over time, and fella showed a little bit of a "Z" pattern in the comebacker when losing 1 1/2 lengths from the quarter to the half before gaining 5 1/2 from that point to the line in finishing second. The winner that day got the job done in his followup, improving in the speed figure department by 10% in the process. Front wraps were added in the most recent, so have a looksie pre race. #3 V PATTERN showed some improvement 2nd time out, and has Lasix administered while securing Saez in the stirrups. #6 LUCKY BRODY cuts back & may perk up with the blinker addition. 

 

Race  8 

1.Tis a Pity

2.Social Whirl

3.Kreesa La Wrote

#8 TIS A PITY rallied nicely ( and wide ) when closing out the exacta upstate on the first of the month, and gal found the line first in her only start on the Inner. Sensible selection in today's third off the L/O affair. #10 SOCIAL WHIRL shoots for the hat trick today, and as this one has improved with each passing turf start, we see it as being quite feasible. #4 KREESA LA WROTE regressed a bit in her first try against winners, but that happens with so many, and Jose sees fit to take the call.  OFF TURF: 3-4-5-9-2

 

Race  9 

1.Yankee Empire

2.King James

3.Halpert

#3 YANKEE EMPIRE was extremely flat on closing weekend in Saratoga, but the penultimate effort ( a sprint ) was honest enough, as he finished 3rd -- two spots behind a next out winner. Slight edge at a price. #6 KING JAMES has been a bit disappointing over the last duet, but chestnut chap got up in time in her only firm course start on the Widener, and is now available for purchase for the first time. #5 HALPERT is another who's never been up for grabs until today, and as this one has encountered some trouble in his last pair, may surprise with a tidier trip -- at elevated odds.  OFF TURF: 9-6-3-5-4

  

Belmont            ( Current ): 8-39        ( $84.70 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3   ( 0% )    Favorites   Win %:      6-39     ( 15.4% )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 7-40        ( $57.70 )   Beatable Favorites    0-2    ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:    19-40     ( 47.5% )


Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


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