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Profitable three bagger for us here yesterday, as we've secured a flat bet profit for opening week. Toss in a $48 Ice Cold Double, two Rolling Pick Threes of $275 & $121, and a successful Beatable Favorite, for good measure.  

Just a reminder that for today's coverage of the Grade One action from Woodbine, merely go back one page. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #5 Mr. Briggs


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 9/19

 

Race  1

1.Out of Sight

2.Fist Full of Dice

3.Saluki

#5 OUT OF SIGHT has undergone a positive trainer switch since the initial ( and honest ) turf attempt up at The Spa on August 5th, and as the turf pedigree is better than that of the dirt, we're fixin' to believe that there's ample room for improvement off that performance. Jock has some familiarity with this one, and in a race with no world beaters, we'll bite at a price. #7 FIST FULL OF DICE comes in today off a career best figaro, and secures Saratoga's leading rider. #9 SALUKI lost by just 3 & change at nearly 100-1 last time out, and is in a "2nd off the L/O" spot today; may still be overlooked some.  OFF TURF: 7-9-1(MTO)-2-8

 

Race  2

1.Indian Counselor

2.Wicked Indeed

3.Irish Giant

#2 INDIAN COUNSELOR hasn't been in action since mid June, but we're assuaged by the fact that the five year old has a win & a placing from as many starts off the bench, as well as Kantarmaci owning a snazzy 3 for 4 ledger with allowance dirt dashers in the 51-133 day bracket ( $5, $4 & $9 ). Last two tallies have come beneath today's pilot, and gelding owns a two for three record at today's distance of ground. Things to like at 6-1. #3 WICKED INDEED left himself with a bit too much to do when going 7/8th's last time out, but gets an added panel today, and is two of three at Big Sandy. #4 IRISH GIANT hasn't been in action for a third of a year, but late blooming five year old hasn't missed the exacta in either start, and is a factor if sound & fully cranked up.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 MR. BRIGGS will likely be overbet off his two turn form, but his one turn numbers are substantially lighter.

 

Race  3

1.Nonna Madeline

2.Paris Lights

3.Thankful

We don't have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly.  #6 NONNA MADELINE hasn't been in action in more than ten months, but has finished first & second in both tries off a respite, is one for two with Irad in the irons, and owns some back class. Take a looksie in the paddock. #5 PARIS LIGHTS is another classy gal who found the line first in her only one turn dirt try over a fast track; logical. #1 THANKFUL has done well in Elmont & may perk up with the blinker addition. 

 

Race  4 

1.Kawhi Me a River

2.First Law

3.Luna Warrior

#7 KAWHI ME A RIVER handled the recent surface switch with aplomb, essentially replicating the adjusted speed figure from the January bow, and given the touch of difficulty ( "Hit gate...paused" ), we're seeing potentially an even better performance today -- albeit at a substantially lower price. #3 FIRST LAW has ben a part of the triple in all five sod sprints to date, and we'd be Silly McGilly to exclude. #5 LUNA WARRIOR is a $150,000 bred animal who went for double that amount at an auction in January 2019, and is showing a sizzling 9th best of 153 breeze two fortnights back. Recognize that this one is a half tp a gal who went 15:4-3-2, earning more than 800 big ones.  OFF TURF: 5-1-7-6-3

 

Race  5

1.Scott Alaia

2.Seascape

3.Quantitativbreezin

#6 SCOTT ALAIA outran her 16-1 offering when completing the triple up in the Adirondacks on the 28th of July, and we love that the career best effort came in her first start against winners ( something which is never easy to do ). Sixth different pilot in as many trips to the track is a goodie in Looie, and we'll give her a slight edge. #5 SEASCAPE has been kept in jail since the Aug. 8th purchase, and is promptly dropped 7K off the 4th place finish. Using, but keep in mind that this one has now been put up for sale for 50K...32K...and 25K. Hmmmm...  #9 QUANTITATIVEBREEZIN was aggressively hiked up the ladder on 8/22, despite being out of prison by a day, and the connections were rewarded with a solid 2nd place finish. Sensible once again, but as front wraps were add that day, it would behoove you to take a gander pre race. 

 

Race  6 

1.Devil Or Angel

2.Father Walsh

3.Lord Brownie

#2 DEVIL OR ANGEL ( "She's no angel, believe me." ) was a gamely & well clear runner up in a near identical spot in Toga Town 23 days in the rear, and should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #1 FATHER WALSH ( founder of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmund_A._Walsh )  may be the only one we'll utilize as an exacta saver to the above, based on being a January foal, having shown some good speed first time out, and owning top flight turf pedigree. #6 LORD BROWNIE may show some improvement with today's surface switch, and how can we let this go without the ENTIRE Nick Yemana "Mooshie Mooshie" brownie clip for you wonderful folks, right here !!  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiCoLlHaVck   OFF TURF: 8-4-9-1-10(MTO)

 

Race  7

1.Alphalfa

2.Dancing Buck

3.New York's Finest

#3 ALPHALFA was licked after a half last time out, and has been promptly transferred over to a more successful trainer, who promptly spots this fella at a trip where he scored in his only attempt. Johnny V. rarely rides for Charlie, but when he does, he has a 4 for 17 mark, with a positive ROI. #7 DANCING BUCK was sent to the sidelines after a disappointing performance in a stakes event on the Mellon, but they all can't be winners, and this one owns a win & a runner up finish in his two other grass engagements. #6 NEW YORK'S FINEST positively knows where the line is, as the 32:11-1-2 mark belies, and that's reason enough to include.  OFF TURF: 2(MTO)-4-6-8-10(MTO)

 

Race  8 

1.Brattle House

2.Ifihadachance

3.Cartwheel

#2 BRATTLE HOUSE has done very little wrong thus far in her career, and despite the long layoff, is backed by a strong DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 1,826 days, C-Squared has won with half ( "Hahf" ) of his 18 optional dirt stock who haven't been seen in 51-263 days ( 4-1 or undah ) and there's a positive return on investment in that regards. #7 IFIHADACHANCE got smacked around a bit at the onset when facing similar in SAR, but still split the field that day at 9-1. Paired up once again with Saez ( 3:1-2-0 ) and has done okay at Belmont. #6 CARTWHEEL is more than doubled up in price after showing in a $20,000 event, and as this one is two for three in second off the bench heats, we'll incorporate because of the confidence shown. 

 

Race  9 

1.Minaun ( Ire )

2.Plum Ali

3.Our Flash Drive

Today's featured race is named after the great mare, Pebbles, and for your viewing pleasure, we have her victory in the 1985 Breeders' Cup at Aqueduct ( that's right -- Aqueduct !! ) right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcFaVAZrPTE .  As for the race itself, we'll give a slight nod to #3 MINAUN (IRE), who will be led over by an hombre who's won with both of his ungraded turf stayers who missed the board 51-67 days back & are running sans Lasix ( $22 & $5 ). #1 PLUM ALI has won both her starts outside of the graded ranks, and has handled herself nicely when facing tougher competition; sensible addition. #2 OUR FLASH DRIVE shoots for the grand salami this afternoon, as this one has improved with each passing start, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards.  OFF TURF: 12-1-2-9-8

 

Race  10

1.Seizing the Dream

2.Blame It On Brutus

3.Flight to Paradise

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #8 SEIZING THE DREAM ( by "Carpe Diem", ya get it? ) hasn't faced the starter in nearly half'a calendar, but gets 2/3rd's of the "Around the World" treatment today ( adds a hood & loses the pistachios ), and Tagg is "It" with his turf routers in the 68-282 day zip code, as he's 7-21 with 'em, and the payouts were $14, $12, $10, $9, $5, $4 & $3. #2 BLAME IT ON BRUTUS switches over to what we believe will be his preferred surface moving forward after a decent showing first out. #3 FLIGHT TO PARADISE loses the blinks and should be no worse than third for all who like to grind out a show profit.  OFF TURF: 6-3-9-2-13(MTO)

  

Belmont            ( Current ): 7-29        ( $78.70 )   Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0% )    Favorites   Win %:      3-29     ( 10.4% )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 6-38        ( $54.40 )   Beatable Favorites    0-2    ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:    17-38     ( 44.7% )


Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


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