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A bit snakebit yesterday with a winner & three placeings ( two of those by a schnoz ), but at least we're right on it ! 

Just a reminder that for today's Grade 1 selections & analysis for Woodbine, merely go back one page.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #9 She's Dancing


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 9/18

 

Race  1

1.Slipstream

2.Java Buzz

3.Grand Sonata 

#3 SLIPSTREAM overcame a touch of trouble at the onset to split the field when debuting on the lawn two back, and followed that up with a decent showing in an off the turf event up at Saratoga. The turf breeding says to us that this one has a bit of a bright future on the lawn, and we're finding 6-1 as quite generous here. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, C-Squared more than doubles his normative 19% batting average when it comes to his locally based maiden special weight sod sprinters in the 31-67 day zip code ( $6, $7 x 2 & $10 ). #2 JAVA BUZZ was a troubled but sharp runner up behind a next out winner at first asking, and although this one may have outperformed his bloodlines a bit that afternoon. Having said ( or typed ) that, Linda Rice ( who is STILL awaiting final determination on her license revocation ) has won with both of her maiden special weight turf dashers making their 2nd starts at 6-1 or undah ( $8 & $12 ). #7 GRAND SONATA is nicely bred & can be any kind.  OFF TURF: 5-4-3-9(MTO)-1

 

 

Race  2

1.Baby I'm Perfect

2.Manifest Destiny

3.Summer Bourbon

#4 BABY I'M PERFECT ( we can relate ) nearly went all the way when facing similar up north 36 days in the rear, and is logical once again.  WE HAVE A TZEONN CHANG SIGHTING !! #1A MANIFEST DESTINY ( "We share their spirit, Brian!" ), has always been one of our faves, as he's often outran his odds, while the aforementioned pilot more often than not does the same. M.D. completed the superfecta at 23-1 vs. what we would consider to be a similar grouping up in the Adirondacks, and has done decently right here in the past. You'll get your money's worth. #9 SUMMER BOURBON is confidently hiked up in class after the 7/10 tally, and has the sort of "declining" ( 53:12-8-5 ) mark that we've grown to love. 

 

 

Race  3

1.Ingress

2.Bipartisanship ( GB ) 

3.Rhombique 

#8 INGRESS posted an adjusted 77.1 when debuting on the grass a bit shy of two months in the past, and right off the bat, that's a figure that would fit well in this grouping. The fact that she posted a substantially lower number in an off the turfer will give her a boost in the odds department, and shedrow has an 8:3-1-2 ledger with mdspwt turf stayers ridden by Junior ( $5 x 2 & $20 ). #2 BIPARTISANSHIP (GB) hit the board at 80-1 in a Graded event @ Fairyhouse, and sheds some lb's. while getting the big "L" for the first time. #1 RHOMBIQUE has some hefty Tomlinson numbers for this trip/surface, and can spice things up a bit.  OFF TURF: 2-8-1-9(MTO)-7(MTO)

 

 

Race  4 

1.Lone Rock

2.Empty Tomb

3.Moretti

Here we go folks -- a $300,000 optional claiming event. We actually had to read the conditions numerous times AND go on Twitter to see what we were missing here. Truth of the matter is that we're not missing anything. Four of the six entrants are exiting a claimer, or an optional claimer, with one being a listed stakes winner ( 15 1/2 months ago ), and another who won a Grade 2. Instead of hustling horses to make the race "Go", cancel the race & put that money back in the horseman's account to help the "ham & eggers".  As for the race itself, it was clearly pushed to aid Diodoro's #4 LONE ROCK, who is a neck shy of shooting for nine in a row here, and looms a heavy favorite. #3 EMPTY TOMB won his sole local try over a glib surface, and closed out the exacta in his lone pairing with Looie. #5 MORETTI has partaken in the superfecta in ten straight dirt events & should be in the mix once again.  NOTE: AS OF 12:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 

Race  5

1.No Time Alone

2.My Cara Mia Mine

3.Cricket West ( AE )

#5 NO TIME ALONE has closed out the exacta in both spins on the sod, and as Rosario is nordes des lignes today, Johnny V. subs, and that's fine by us, as he's on a sensational 12 for 21 run when riding for Ward at Belmont of late. We'e expecting this one to be a lot lower than 9-2 by post time. #2 MY CARA MIA MINE ( like many of Mitch's horses ) finished strongly to pick up 12% of the pot when beginning her working life in the Adirondack region on 8/12, and the family tree tells us that the solid effort that day was likely not a fluke. We like the mettle shown when breaking from a disadvantageous slot, and bulling her way through a seam late in the game to lose by only a neck. #13 CRICKET WEST (AE) needs one to get the sniffles in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that come to fruition, would be toting along a game, runner up finish in the August overture.  OFF TURF: 7-3-1-9-15(MTO)

 

 

Race  6 

1.Circle Back Jen 

2.Practical Paulie 

3.For the Flag

At first glance we didn't know who to go with here, but eventually, we circled back to #3 CIRCLE BACK JEN. March foal has a nicely hidden breeze on the docket, is a half to a 17:6-3-1 ( 226G ) dirt runner, ( whose sire was "Secret Circle" ), and may have to bob & weave should she be put into a tough spot early on. Hoping she doesn't come up empty when asked, and that she'll be able to toss her mane for the winner's circle photo. #5 PRACTICAL PAULIE has been conducting her morning affairs in a professional manner and has some nice bloodlines on the topside. #7 FOR THE FLAG may want more dx. down the road, but we'll toss in the "unders" here. 

 

 

Race  7

1.Space Launch

2.Shawdyshawdyshawdy

3.Ocala Dream

#7 SPACE LAUNCH gave way rather readily when returning off a bit of a freshening, but was doing good work prior to that, and is in a 2nd off the layoff spot for the first time, and rates a slight edge in a race with but two first draft eliminations. #8 SHAWDYSHAWDYSHAWDY took the overland route when last in action up at The Spa, but had a win & a placing in two turf tries outside of stakes company prior to that, and can most definitely make some noise at double digit odds. #3 OCALA DREAM has Lasix administered for the first time after a next to last finish in a stakes event, and given the quartet of superfecta finishes prior to that, we'll bite at 10-1.  OFF TURF: 12(MTO)-10-3-8-1

 

 

Race  8 

1.Beautiful Karen 

2.Snicket

3.Ok Honey

#3 BEAUTIFUL KAREN down the lane. #10 SNICKET is transitioned back to the dirt today, and has handled herself nicely over the stuff, and makes her first start on it with blinks affixed. Saratoga's leading rider takes the assignment, and of course, we dig the slot. #6 OK HONEY is a nibbler by rote ( 37:1-8-7 on a track labeled FST ), but has done her best stuff underneath today's jockey, and can grab a slice.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 SHE'S DANCING fills the bill because we like our top selection that much. 

 

 

Race  9 

1.Shantisara ( Ire )

2.Creative Flair ( Ire ) 

3.Harajuku ( Ire ) 

#6 SHANTISARA (IRE) has given a fine account of herself since arriving in the States this past spring, placing & winning in two separate turf events at two different locales. Best rider in the country retains the mount from the Arlington score, and keeping in mind that this one's lone blemishes were in the bow & pre layoff engagement, we see a bright future here. #1 CREATIVE FLAIR (IRE) has crashed the fiesta in five straight, and gets a tremendous switch in the saddle today from Smith to Buick. #7 HARAJUKU (IRE) finishes up the Erin Go Bragh tri based on the 2:1-0-1 record when making a left handed turn.  OFF TURF: 1-6-4-5-3

 

 

Race  10

1.Tango Tango Tango

2.Yibir ( Fr )

3.Bolshoi Ballet ( Ire ) 

#1 TANGO TANGO TANGO was a solid runner up in what was formerly known as the Arlington Million three dozen days back, and although the number garnered was just a bit short of a few others in here, we like that the trainer sees fit to add blinkers off a good effort, and Prat takes over for the injured Cannon. #2 YIBIR (FR) comes in today off a Grade Two in ( on a left handed course ) over in York last month, and sheds 64 ounces off that victory ( which is something we always dig ). Deserving fave. #8 BOLSHOI BALLET has won four of his last seven and closes out the "Apple Pie/Creme Brulee/Corned Beef" triple. OFF TURF: 1-8-2-7-6

 

 

Race  11

1.Air Show

2.Clear Humor

3.Advance Notice

#8 AIR SHOW was positively abysmal when going over the green stuff for the first time, but as he was still in jail after being claimed in the start prior, it wouldn't surprise us if Bruce put a false line on the page in an effort to dissuade any purchasers should he have decided to drop him back in for a lower tag next out, so let's ignore that deal. Three year old had been 1-2-3 in six of seven before that, and ninth different helmsman is coming off a decent Spa meet. #5 CLEAR HUMOR went coast to coast like butter and toast to grab the sheepskin 200+ miles northward a tad over two months in the rear, and sometimes when the lightbulb comes on, it can stay on for a while, so we'll chunk in despite the lowish numbahs. #3 ADVANCE NOTICE will be left over by a bossman who's 5 for 9 with freshly purchased allowance sand sprinters last in action 43 to 57 days back ( 9-1 or less ). 

 

 


Belmont            ( Current ): 4-18        ( $50.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( 0% )   Favorites   Win %:      1-18     ( 5.7% )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 6-36        ( $54.40 )   Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:    16-36     ( 44.4% )


Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


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