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Nice way to start the meet yesterday with a profitable three bgger ( $16, $18 & $9 ), a $125 Cold Late Daily Double, a $171 Triple Box, and a successful Beatable Favorite. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 9/17

 

Race  1

1.Kumar

2.Ekhtibaar

3.Tapalist

#7 KUMAR has never seen these depths, is three for five at Belmont, one for two with Rosario, and appears to lay over this bunch IF not scratched, and IF fully sound ( note the 7 of 8 off the board finishes, which includes a voided claim. #6 EKHTIBAAR is another finding himself at an all time low, and has excelled at this distance in the past, as the 4-11 mark belies. Recognize the snappy 6:2-0-2-2 ledger when going from two turns to one. #5 TAPALIST is one fer two at this level, 3:1-0-1-1 in third off the layoff engagements, and found the line first in his only trip on this strip. Take a peek in the paddock after the recent claim got squashed. 

 

 

Race  2

1.Megayacht

2.Balthus ( Ire )

3.Summer Silence

#2 MEGAYACHT hasn't been in action since debuting at the end of February, but there are a couple of decent moves on the worktab for today's comebacker, and from an itty bitty sampling, C-Squared is two for three with locally based turf stayers making their second start ( 68 days & up ), w/mutuels of $10 & $9. #5 BALTHUS ( IRE ) begins his working life today, and with Galileo on the topside, & a DRF Formulator stat showing this barn at 3 for 5 with male firsters fitting all this exact criteria ( $10, $15 & $4 ). #3 SUMMER SILENCE has gone 64-70-72 in his troika of turf outings to date, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Colt has been on vacation for more than two months, so it would behoove you to take a peek pre race.  OFF TURF: 1-2-7-9-5

 

 

Race  3

1.Trinni Luck

2.Perfect Grace

3.Love and Love

#5 TRINNI LUCK shoots for the hat trick today off a career best performance, and has shown some of her daddy's zip over the last duet. We don't consider this jump into the open foe ranks to be that steep, so another tally is most definitely within reach. #4 PERFECT GRACE has yet to finish out of the exacta and is in the "3rd start off the layoff" portion of his form cycle today. Totally logical. #6 LOVE AND LOVE is a very consistent sort, having partaken in the triple in her last quartet, 6 of 8, and 10 of 13; gal who showed just behind this one in the most recent scored in her next outing, improving in the Beyer Speed Figure department by 10.2%.  NOTE: AS OF 12:06, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 

Race  4 

1.Diamond Hands

2.Alittleloveandluck

3.Splitsecondsonny

#7 DIAMOND HANDS put forth a decent showing up at the Spa first time out, and is eligible to move up over firm ground today. From a small sampling, Clement is 3 for 8 with 2nd time starters/2nd time routers on the gramma, off breaks of less than 52 days. #6 ALITTLELOVEANDLUCK was a bit green when starting things out at the end of August, but gets off the rail a bit this afternoon, which could help her settle down a little bit early on. Eligible to show some improvement. #1A SPLITSECONDSONNY came along late in the game to close out the superfecta when going short in the bow, and this one is obviously well meant, having gone for more than 11X the stud fee at auction. Curious trainer change in play, but we'll include. 10-2B(MTO)-8-1-9

 

 

Race  5

1.Seismic Wave

2.Attentive 

3.Tizzarunner

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #9 SEISMIC WAVE is winless at this distance, but owns a one for three mark when coming back off a break in the action, and finished 3rd the only time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump. Pre-layoff pilot comes back, and that's always a good sign -- especially when it's a top flight pilot. #2 ATTENTIVE has been quite the popular item at the claim box, having left forwarding addresses after four of his last six trips to the frontside, and on the whole has done fine work at this trip & on this course. Ninth different jock in his last ten forays is a goodie in Irad, and we like this one's ability to sit just off the pace or come from the back of the pack. #5 TIZZARUNNER is confidently doubled up in class after the July 31st purchase, and can land a share. 

 

 

Race  6 

1.Afjan

2.Cairama 

3.Protonic Power

#3 AFJAN has had the screws tightened a bit by Pletcher over each of his last quartet of workouts leading up to today's initial afternoon spin, and although this is the first one to make it to the races from three dropped by this dam, the family tree is exceptional, and barn does well with runners of this type. #2 CAIRAMA -- bred for $15,000 -- went for more than half'a mil at Ocala back in March, and five of six members of the family tree scored in either their first or second career starts. #7 PROTONIC POWER ( uncoupled entrymate with our top choice ) has been conducting his morning affairs in a professional manner, and is a half to a 4 for 7 dirt sprinting winner over a fast track, as well as G1/G2 winner Princess Noor. 

 

 

Race  7

1.Momos

2.Big Everest ( GB ) 

3.Arzak

#2 MOMOS appears to be the controlling speed of this deal, and aside from that, this one had gamely showing right here last fall ( adj. 94.9 ). There are a couple who can possibly tangle with this one early on, but should that not come to bear, than 8-1may be looking like a gift a quarter of a mile in. #6 BIG EVEREST (GB) cuts back after procuring the sheepskin up in the Adirondacks 56 days in the rear, and while we're betting this one is going to want longer distances down the road, we'll include because of the way this one has steadily improved over time. #3 ARZAK got up in time to win a listed stakes at Presque Isle on the 2nd of August, and this one most definitely doesn't need to take his track ( or jock ) with him, as he's amazingly started at nine different venues beneath nine different helmsmen coming into today. We see no reason t exclude. 

 

 

Race  8 

1.Honey Pants

2.Bye Bye

3.Can't Buy Love

Extremely tight race here, so tread lightly.  #9 HONEY PANTS is an extremely steady sort who's been a part of the exacta in six of seven turf starts thus far, and included in that is a tally beneath Irad over this oval back in June -- bringing up her record on the Inner to 2 for 2. Grey gal has a tendency to burn a little bread, but we'll give her a soft nod. #10 BYE BYE said that to the rest of the competition in her first two turf dashes, before encountering some trouble in finishing 3rd by a neck the third time she sprinted on the sod. We love the draw and expect this one to be right there with a clean trip. #7 CAN'T BUY LOVE has a modicum of class and may grab a share.  OFF TURF: 4-1-9-5-3(MTO)

 

 

Race  9 

1.Reeley Psyched

2.Little Ms Scarlet

3.Bonana Fanna Foe

#7 REELEY PSYCHED was a daylight beaten but well clear third when going longer vs. tougher up north, in a fairly decent dirt debut, and from a trainer perspective, Bruce Brown is two for four with maiden claiming dirt runners who crashed the fiesta 41 to 57 days ago, and this one now gets in with a feather ( albeit one who still needs some polishing ). #6 LITTLE MS SCARLET put forth a solid showing directly behind a next out winner in Maryland about a month past, and did such against open foes. #2 BONANA FANNA FOE is second off the bench & picks up blinks & Jose. 

 

 


Belmont            ( Current ): 3-9          ( $43.80 )   Beatable Favorites      0-1     ( 0% )   Favorites   Win %:      0-9       ( 0% )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 6-36        ( $54.40 )   Beatable Favorites    0-2     ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:    16-36     ( 44.4% )


Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


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