We'd like to than all those who contributed to our 9 day drive at the end of the Saratoga meet for the Wounded Warrior Project, as we honored our heroes by raising $3,580 in total. That figure may be more, as one person promised a monthly gift & judging by his comment, intends to keep it going for a while. Additionally, there was about $150 donated to the Disabled Veterans Program as well.

You're all amazing.

God bless.  

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #4 Amazing Dream

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 9/16 - Opening Day - Steeplechase Day


Race  1

1.Booby Trap

2.Perfect Tapatino ( Fr )

3.Baltimore Bucko ( GB )

Welcome back, everybody !!   We're seeing the meet's opener as easy as 1-2-3. ( Not really, but aren't we clever? )  #1 BOOBY TRAP has been a completely different animal since going vertical, having won both starts over firm ground while wearing blinkers. Leslie Young ( who had herself a nice Saratoga ) is a tight two for five with ungraded hurdlers who scored less than three dozen days back ( 10-1 or less ) with the winners paying $10 & $6. We'll ride the hot hand. #2 PERFECT TAPATINO (FR) has done quite well since switching careers, going 4:1-1-1 thus far, and uncoupled barnmate with the above is backed by a 3 fer 9 DRF Formulator stat which has the above shotcaller at just that with those fitting the exact criteria as the above who were ITM last out ( $10, $6 & N.B. ). #3 BALTIMORE BUCKO completes the "Pizza/Escargot/Fish & Chips" triple based on the three exacta finishes since landing in the States. 



Race  2

1.Bodes Well ( Ire )

2.Amschel ( GB )

3.The Mean Queen ( GB )

#4 BODES WELL (IRE) couldn't have been more appropriately named when inheriting the lead after Garner made an inexplicable decision to go to the whip late in the game, and despite being quite lucky that day, it doesn't take away from the fact that this one was well clear of the runner behind him. May be a bit overlooked from a parimutual standpoint with The Mean Queen entered. #1 AMSCHEL (GB) has been a part of the triple in both starts this year behind the runaway Snap Decision, and drops eight pounds off the recent placing. #2 THE MEAN QUEEN (GB) should be shooting for six in a row today if not for the aforementioned mishap, and is an obvious factor. 



Race  3

1.Orb in the Tower

2.Breaking Stones

3.Good Culture 

#4 ORB IN THE TOWER hasn't been in action since The 5th of July, but gelding had put it all together after being gelded 2+ months back, earning the sheepskin on the local Inner, and now catches a glib surface for the first time. From a "trainer stat" perspective, shedrow is five of 11 with sod to sand stock of this ilk off breaks of 58-92 days @ 6-1 or under ( $12 & $7 ). There's a sub category of two for two with those on the cutback, and pre layoff pilot sticks around. #5 BREAKING STONES found the line first in his sole "second off the break " jammie, and cuts back today while having eye cups affixed for the 1st time. Just like a bellybutton, #3 GOOD CULTURE can be a bit of an in and outer, but has posted nice numbers right here, and with today's jockola.



Race  4 

1.Crowding Out

2.Lilac Girl

3.Split Then Double ( GB )

#2 CROWDING OUT has hit the board in both her starts thus far, makes her second start off a layoff, and we see no reason another sharp effort isn't within her grasp. Mild edge. #4 LILAC GIRL begins her working life this afternoon, and does such with a bullet gate breeze in tow, which always merits inclusion for a firster. Dam & damsire positively loved the gramma, and jockey/trainer combo have won four of their last seven in tandem at Belmont ( $13, $5, $9 & $26 ). Things to like. #8 SPLIT THEN DOUBLE (GB) has displayed improvement w/each passing start, and exits a race where seven comebackers went 7:2-1-3-1 in their followup engagements, with a negligible Beyer change amongst the allotment.  OFF TURF: 6-1-4-2-8



Race  5

1.Saratoga Kisses 

2.Gabriela's Miracle

3.Amore Fire

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #6 SARATOGA KISSES is made available for purchase for the first time, and Rudy Rod owns a snazzy 6-13 ledger with NYRA based dirt equines off absences of 58-60 days at 9-1 or undah, and there are sub categories of 3 for 4 with Irad astride, and 1 for 1 when going from green to brown. Note that this one improved by approximately 11.2% from her first dirt start to the second. #3 GABRIELA'S MIRACLE ( who should be no worse than 3rd today for all you show punters out there ) got better 2nd time around, and we like the improved speed shown that day. #1 AMORE FIRE has worked well since the most recent and can land a share.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: We have no idea why #4 AMAZING DREAM is 5/2 here. 


Race  6 


2.Lady Petrol ( GB ) 

3.Evvie Jets

#7 MISSPELL makes her 3rd start off the shelf this afternoon, drops in class, owns a solid overall bod of work, and 15% shedrow is a crisp 4 for 7 with locally based optional turfers going one turn to two, with the winners in that survey paying $7 and $6 x 3. Deserving chalk. #2 LADY PETROL (GB) ( uncoupled barnmate with our top choice ) has been beset by successive layoff lines, but nonetheless, you can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the speed figures, as this one seems to be sorting things out as she goes along. Could use with a little speed to cut into, and as there's not much signed on, we'll keep beneath. #9 EVVIE JETS went coast to coast like butter and toast against maiden platers on "Bijou Day", and that added to her ledger of consistency, as this one has never missed a superfecta placing; seems properly spotted in her first try against victress'.  OFF TURF: 9-6-3-5-1(MTO)



Race  7

1.Fox Red

2.Free Enterprise

3.Happy Farm 

#3 FOX RED has been an extremely popular item at the claim box, having changed addresses after his last quartet when being eligible, and a whopping 12 of 20 starts on the whole. This makes sense, as the chestnut chap is a check earning fool, and is sweetly spotted after being kept in jail after the July 28th purchase. Gelding is by no means a standout, but is a sensible selection in a heat where we landed on but three betting interests. From a trainer aspect, 22% clan is three of six with freshly purchased sand sprinters in the 51-55 day zip code ( $5 x 2 & $4 ). #4 FREE ENTERPRISE lost by only a noggin in his sole "3rd off the shelf" heat, & is a poyfect two for two with a For Sale sticker attached to his rump. #1A HAPPY FARM has the sort of perfect "declining" record we've grown to love over the years ( 26:10:7-2 ), and that includes stellar marks right here, and off the bench also. Must include.  NOTE: AS OF 5:22, DUE TO A GATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.



Race  8 



3.Farmington Road

#2 TEMPLE down the lane. #3 GUNNISON was as flat as a pancake when facing eleven salty foes up in the Adirondacks 41 days in the rear, but had four straight ITM finishes just prior to that, and goes up against about half that amount in this spot. Recognize that this one has rebounded well in the followups to his recent four out of the money finishes ( 4:1-0-2 ), and deserves a chance to make some amends at the 20-1 M.L. offering. #5 FARMINGTON ROAD hasn't seen the scene in nearly the full length of the calendar, but owns some back class & has a win & a placing in his last duet of starts outside of stakes company.  OFF TURF: 8-2-4-1-7(MTO)



Race  9 

1.Constitutional Rage

2.Lemon Taffy

3.Spun for Lu Lu

#1 CONSTITUTIONAL RAGE was a bit headstrong when last seen in this race up in Saratoga at the end of August, but was able to complete the superfecta at 12-1, and slides in five slots off of that performance. The BSF garnered that day was precipitously better than that of her initial turf route, so who's to say this one can't improve once again. #11 LEMON TAFFY ( by 'Lemon Drop Kid' out of 'Salt Water Reign" -- ya get it ? ) has done little wrong in both turf tries thus far, and was smartly re-claimed by Maker after being poorly spotted in an off the turf event by Kantarmaci in a "second off the claim" affair. Given that this one put forth a strong effort in the initial turf route ( WITHOUT Lasix, which is now in play ), new bossman kept her in prison hoping to pick up a fat check at the same level. #4 SPUN FOR LU LU outran her 29-1 odds in a big way when picking up the show dough when going long on the lawn for the first time, and deserves your respect once again.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-2-5 



Graded Stakes ( Current ): 6-36        ( $54.40 )   Beatable Favorites    0-2     ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:    16-36     ( 44.4% )

Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout