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In support of our troops, for the remainder of the meet, we will donate 2X our column winnings to the Wounded Warrior Project ( https://www.woundedwarriorproject.org/ ). They're a wonderful organization which lend aid to those who have bravely fought for our country. It may come out to just $250-$270, but every bit counts. Feel free to root along, or join in whole or part. 

Saturday's $23.40 winner added $46.80 more to the above, bringing the total to ( at least ) $174.60 thus far.

Just a reminder that for today's selections & analysis of the Del Mar Debutante, merely go back one page.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Saratoga - 9/5 - God Bless Our Troops

 

Race  1

1.Sealithic

2.S Oh S

3.Sonnyneedsmoney

#1 SEALITHIC hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in the mornings for today's overture, but the dam won at first asking, the sire, maternal grandsire and paternal grandparents both scored second time out and the maternal granddam closed out the exacta when doing the same. Jockey/Trainer combination click at an 8:3-2-0 rate with dirt stock off breaks of 1-150 days ( 34-1 or undah ), and those winners came back $14 x 2 & $5. #9 S OH S was a bit tardy to the party when starting things out on July 25th, but that's usually a death knell for those breaking from the rail, and the "inside to outside" move can never be underestimated. #5 SONNYNEEDSMONEY has a decent looking worktab for today's career starter, and needn't be much in this spot. 

 

Race  2

1.Prospective Candy 

2.Lucky Latkes

3.Courted

#7 SPLIT THE FIELD at 35-1 when going over the blades for the first time down at the Shore three weeks back, and the figure earned that day was by far her best to date. There ain't no world beaters here, and note that an out of town rider comes in for the call. #9 LUCKY LATKES returned off nearly a 100 day break to close out the triple at double digit odds in an off the turf event on the local main at the end of July, and bay filly has a solid overall body of turf work. #10 COURTED completed the triple in her sole "second off the L/O" jammie, and cuts back today.  OFF TURF: 1(MGTO)-6-9-3(MTO)-2

 

Race  3

1.Mischief Reigns ( AE )

2.Little Nutter

3.Synonymous

#14 MISCHIEF REIGNS (AE) needs a little luck to get into the body of the race, but should that come to fruition, would be in a second off the layoff spot, while going over wither firm or soft ground for just the second time, and as we like to give runners two chances under a particular set of circumstances, this one's honest turf pedigree says to give her another shot over the stuff. #5 LITTLE NUTTER can be forgiven the off the turf event on 8/20, and closed out the exacta when dashing against slightly tougher down in Elmont in the start prior. May be a bit overlooked parimutually. #6 SYNONYMOUS takes a drop ( also known as a reduction ) in class today,  but we'll keep beneath because of the slumping pilot.  OFF TURF: 12-4-9-3-2  NOTE: AS OF 10:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Off We Go

2.Glass Ceiling

3.Rivendell

#4 OFF WE GO encountered a bit of trouble when returning off a five month sabbatical two fortnights ago, but aside from that, is 3:1-1-0 when dashing on the sand, and we like that there's no scary drop as of yet. Slight edge in a race with no first draft eliminations. #3 GLASS CEILING has been a bit camera shy over her last 14 trips to the frontside, but has a propensity for cashing some checks, and seems like a sensible candidate for the unders. #6 RIVENDELL ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is slightly better bred for the brown than the green, and as this one has handled himself nicely over the latter, we see no reason a solid effort isn't well within reach.

 

Race  5

1.Arch of Fire

2.Boss Cara

3.Thismightbetheone

#3 ARCH OF FIRE has bested but two in her last duet, but takes the biggest drop in the biz this afternoon, loses the human anchor, and rates a puncher's chance if able to get back to the penultimate turf try. #2 BOSS CARA is one of the few Mitch runners that hasn't finished up strongly at the stand, but discount the last, as it was on the goo. Lone turf attempt yielded an adjusted speed figure of 63.6, and that came without the use of Lasix, which is now a part of the package. Gal is another sliding down the ladder. #9 THISMIGHTBETTHEONE was kept in jail after the July 23rd snag, and given the snappy debut, should be left in the mix. Pre-claim pilot returns, which is something we always dig.  OFF TURF: 3-1-8-9-1A

 

Race  6 

1.Indoctrinate

2.Yankee Empire

3.Actuary ( GB )

#2 INDOCTRINATE doesn't have the sexiest of recent running lines, but the adjusted # from the Grantville heat came back a 71.6, and that would kinda fit well with most of these. Well travelled runner ( sixth different course in his last half'a dozen outings ) demands value, high riding Harkie getting the assignment. #7 YANKEE EMPIRE was an honest enough 3rd vs. slightly weaker in N.J. back in July, and that race has proven to be a key one, with eight returnees amassing a cumulative 8:3-1-1 mark in their followup affairs, with an average Beyer improvement of 1.9 pts. per. #5 ACTUARY (GB) makes his third start off the L/O here and is up for grabs for the 1st time.  OFF TURF: 9-6-3-5-4

 

Race  7

1.Vallelujah

2.London Pearl

3.Sedona Rocks ( AE )

#5 VALLELUJAH is one of many firsters signed on here, and while the worktab is a bit humdrum, we like that Robbie has tightened the screws a bit of late. Runner is a half to one who's 5:2-1-0 on a glib surface ( 30K earned ), and did well early on in winning his second start. Recognize that two of the immediate six in the family tree scored right outta the box. #10 LONDON PEARL will be led over by a shotcaller who simply never wins first time out, but has decent bloodlines, draws well, and ain't facing much. #15 SEDONA ROCKS (AE) better rub her lucky rocks if she wants to face the starter, as she needs a troika to get the sniffles in order to but on her dancing shoes, but if that happens, would have what we consider to be an advantageous slot for this sorta deal.  NOTE: AS OF 11:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Belle Gosse

2.Li Li Bear

3.Jester Calls Nojoy

#6 BELLE GOSSE ( as we hear it a lot, it means 'Beautiful" in French ) begins her career here, and after showing a 4th best of 47 workout back in mid July, Albertrani pretty much knew what he had here, and has given this one a steady string of maintenance breezes since, while searching for a spot. This one is a half to an ( albeit cheap ) runner who's a whopping 24:10-1-3 to date on a fast track, we see that 3 of the five immediate family members ( who we could get info on ) won at first asking. January foal has a maturity advantage over most of the unraced. #5 LI LI BEAR and #3 JESTER CALLS NOJOY are two fairly interchangeable animals who shouldn't be worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there, with the former having finished directly behind a return winner first time out. 

 

Race  9 

1.Evidence Based 

2.Shining Colors

3.Theodora Grace

#5 EVIDENCE BASED has been switched over to a slightly better clan after flopping in her last pair, and aside from the recent disappointment, posted an adjusted 80.1 in the initial turf route, and that came without blinkers & front wraps, which are currently a part of this one's makeup. As we delve a little further, that primary run has proven to be an UUBER key affair, as all twelve comebackers from that jammie went a whopping 12:7-2-0-1 next time out. If you can be forgiving of the recent troubled trip ( like we are ), then what you have is a live runner at a square number. #3 SHINING COLORS got the job done in her first start off the claim for Vazquez on the local main 25 days in the rear, and although she's never gone over the green stuff, is decently bred for it, so we're foreseeing a strong transition this afternoon. #8 THEODORA GRACE may plod along for a piece.  OFF TURF: 5-2-9-3-1

 

Race  10

1.Limonite

2.You're to Blame

3.Portos

#5 LIMONITE is one of five at the trip, one of two in 2nd off the shelf engagements on the sand, and has blinkers added for the firs time in this -- his 26th start. Meeeeeeeekest of choices in a heat that's hard to hug. #6 YOU'RE TO BLAME scored by nearly ten the only time he was made available for purchase -- and it happened to come over this oval just two starts ago. Seven year old "horse" ( clearly hoping to be a papa someday ) may be somewhat ignored given the recent disaster. #1 PORTOS is two of five at this trip, compared to being winless in six starts going other distances of ground, and that's reason enough to include.   NOTE: AS OF 11:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  11

1.Sue Ellen Mishkin

2.Sequist

3.Benbang

Featured race of the day is upon us, and as we simply loved her free swinging spirit first time out, we'll go with the #9 SUE ELLEN MISHKEN. New York Bred faces open company here, but we're not seeing that as being too relevant, given the fact that her visually impressive first win produced a speed figure that puts her no more than a handful of points behind the second tier today, That being said, the fave would need to bounce off the cracker jack debut for this one to get the lion's share, but should that one "choose not to run", then perhaps this one can snag the marble rye. #8 SEQUIST was nicely spotted in the maiden breaker down in Virginia and has worked well since. #4 BENBANG went coast to coast like butter and toast over the local slop on July 29th, and the runner up from that day scored next out, elevating her BSF by 20%. 

 

Race  12 

1.Clamor

2.Halpert

3.Volkert

#2 CLAMOR is a nibbler by rote ( having not been victorious in nearly two years ), but he's always right there at the end, as his last six defeats have been by an avg. of just 2.37 lengths per, but we like what we're seeing with the back to back lifetime best figaros, and will take a shot. #3 HALPERT has improved with each passing turf start, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Chance to improve once again with a tidier sojourn. #9 VOLKERT ran pretty evenly when last in action and may appreciate getting off the rail a bit.  OFF TURF: 6-5-1-9-3

 

Saratoga          ( Current ): 80-393   ( $578.30 ) Beatable Favorites    7-17 ( 41.2% ) Favorites Win %:     156-393  ( 39.7% )  ( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 6-34        ( $54.40 )   Beatable Favorites    0-2     ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:    15-34     ( 42.5% )


Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2923-15087 ($25,472.60)  Beatable Favorites : 371-1361( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5706-15169 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3008-15655 ($26,291.80)   Beatable Favorites : 386-1429( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 5889-15756 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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