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In support of our troops, for the remainder of the meet, we will donate 2X our column winnings to the Wounded Warrior Project ( https://www.woundedwarriorproject.org/ ). They're a wonderful organization which lend aid to those who have bravely fought for our country. It may come out to just $250-$270, but every bit counts. Feel free to root along, or join in whole or part. 

Yesterday's $23.40 winner added $46.80 more to the above, bringing the total to ( at least ) $174.60 thus far.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #10 English Breeze


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Saratoga - 9/4 - God Bless Our Military

 

Race  1

1.Giramonte

2.War Smoke

3.Sheriff Bianco

#7 GIRAMONTE has hit the board in each and every turf start to date, and we like that this one has shown the ability to send or rate a bit. Rider comes back from suspension, and not only do we like that, but we like hungry riders up here in the waning days of the meet. #5 WAR SMOKE overcame some trouble at the onset when rallying resolutely to pick up second place money in this race 18 days back, finishing the last 3/16th's in 16 & 2. Should be no worse than second for all you show punters out there. #9 SHERIFF BIANCO ( "...from tha Bonx." ) appears to be the clear speed of this deal and completes the troika of runners we'll be using for all our rolling action.  OFF TURF: 11-4-6-9-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Acker

2.Legit

3.Grumps Little Tots

#1 ACKER finds himself at an all time low today, is reacquainted with blinkers ( with which he showed some speed the only time they were slapped on ), and is one for two when going from one turn to two. Will need a lot of things to fall his way here, but we'll take a shot at a price in a race with no first draft eliminations. #5 LEGIT has been a popular item at the claim box of late ( with a change of address made in three of five ), and has been kept in jail since the last snag -- thereby making him eligible for a return at the same price. Could make amends off the recent flat effort with the hood blinking removed. #3 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS has never seen these depths, but owns decent records both at this trip & over this strip. 

 

Race  3

1.North Carolina

2.Ubiquitous

3.Cody's Wish

#1 NORH CAROLINA hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but has been working extremely well for the comebacker, and Tagg is "It" when being handed a runner at 44-1 or less, as he's 7:3-1-0 in that regards ( $15, $4 & $6 ), AND he's won his last three when bringing them back off breaks of more than 163 days, when ridden by Jose ( $11, $6 & $7 ) !!  #4 UBIQUITOUS showed stark improvement from the first start to the second, and may perform even better if able to work out a tidier trip today. #6 CODY'S WISH has completed the triple in both starts to date, and who are we to rock that boat? 

 

Race  4 

1.Screamin' By

2.Lilly Simone

3.Risky Mischief

#2 SCREAMIN' BUY is compelled to face open company here, after besting Empire bred N2X competition down in Belmont two months back, but this isn't really as big a jump in class as you may think. Filly has gone 52-57-70-71-74-76-76-82 in each & every sod start, so who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. #1 LILLY SIMONE is another who seems to be figuring things out as she goes along, and handled her first tango against winners with aplomb, placing behind a next out winner. Barn with a case of seconditis at the stand, so we'll leave beneath. #7 RISKY MISCHIEF got the job done in her only "second off the L/O" try, and it happened to come on the Mellon.   OFF TURF: 1-4-6-8-5(MTO)

 

Race  5

1.Cilla

2.Oxana

3.Amendment Nineteen

#4 CILLA shoots for the hat trick in this spot, and it's well within reach given the positive trainer switch, jockey upgrade, and that this one encountered some trouble in the career best effort about seven weeks back. Lots of things to like for one of the longest shots in the field. #1 OXANA has been positively brilliant since switching surfaces at Philadelphia Park back in June, but faces a stern test here and will have to be boogeying from the get go. #5 AMENDMENT NINETEEN was privately purchased by Juddmonte after placing in an allowance race here on 7/24, and is promptly handed over to the "miracle " man for today's jump into the deep end of the pool.  NOTE: AS OF 11:52, DUE TO A LATE SCRTCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Faith Runner

2.Irish Sea

3.Southern Sense

#1 FAITH RUNNER is a bit of an intriguing entrant in this maxed out field of two year olds. Regally bred runner was as green as broccoli di rapa at first asking, but getting some dirt kicked in your kisser is always a good learning experience, and notice how Dally has tightened the screws on this one since. Recognize that the dam scored 2nd time out, as did the sire, AND the maternal granddam. Oh yeah -- the damsire finished 3rd in a stakes ( after winning the bow ) at second asking. Eye cups are now a part of the makeup, and they were probably on for that bullet breeze, and we'll swing away at big balloons. #7 IRISH SEA showed a touch of early hoof first out, and as Shug runners improve over time, we'll chunk in at 15-1. #4 SOUTHERN SENSE may plod along for a piece. 

 

Race  7

1.Jurkovec

2.Tiz Eternal

3.Olympian

#6 JURKOVEC flashed a little bit of early hoof before playing the fade behind Kevin's Folly ( dig it ) at the end of July, and 366 Tomlinson figure for the trip tells us that there's some room for improvement here. Mild choice. #9 TIZ ETERNAL has been working nicely for today's overture, and Sackatoga has had some good fortune with a runner having Tiznow blood flowing through the veins. Mommy won first time out, and her mommy closed out the exacta when doing the same. This one is a half to a 4 for 17 dirt winner ( 149K ) as well as one who was 3-7 doing the same. #5 OLYMPIAN is bred up the ying yang & owns some nice morning moves for today's initial spin.  NOTE: AS OF 11:56, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Founder

2.Never Surprized

3.Public Sector ( GB )

#5 FOUNDER overcame a touch of trouble at the onset to win his first try over firm ground down in Joyzee, and is reunited with Jose Ortiz, under whose guidance is 3:1-1-0. Uncouple barnmate with the race favorite needs to step up his game once again, but that's entirely feasible, given the connections. #4 NEVER SURPRISED has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but must be incorporated, given the complete body of work. #1 PUBLIC SECTOR (GB) has partaken in the exacta in all starts but the Breeders' Cup, and this ain't no Breeder's Cup. Deserving chalk.  OFF TURF: 2-4-1-6-5

 

Race  9 

1.Golden Oldie

2.English Breeze

3.Cara's Dreamer

#5 GOLDEN OLDIE down the lane at 10-1. BEATABLE FAVORITE/2ND CHOICE: #10 ENGLISH BREEZE is the only one we see with a chance of upsetting the apple cart here, given the lively 3rd place finish in her only start on this course. Mitch Friedman's stock have been finishing strongly at the meet ( despite being winless ), and #1A CARA'S DREAMER appears to be a solid exotics inclusion.   OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-7-8-2-5  

 

Race  10

1.Rejected Again

2.Stayin' Out Late

3.Tuggle

We have positively no idea why the #5 REJECTED AGAIN is 30-1 in this spot, as the adjusted figure earned from the 19-1 placing ( against what we would consider to be a saltier bunch ) is comparable to many signed on, and that heat gives her a strong 4:2-1-0-1 record on this oval as well. #12 STAYIN' OUT LATE is a little bit of a fragile sort, but is a neck shy of being two of two with Santana at the helm, and could be rolling late with any speed to cut into. #1 TUGGLE has a pair of placings off the shelf, and finished 3rd in a G2 here two years ago. Leaving underneath because of the frigid barn.  

 

Race  11

1.La Signare ( Fr )

2.My Sister Nat ( Fr )

3.War Like Goddess

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #1 LA SIGNARE (FR) is a steady if unspectacular sort, and while this one was a 3rd place finisher in an identical spot 48 days in the rear, you may be thinking, "Well, what's gonna be different today?" Well, the six year old was steadied a bit in that deal, and ended up losing by just 2 1/2 at 16-1. Now, did that cost her the race? Who knows. But with ( at least ) one less horse, and a cleaner trip, who's to say she can't get it done for a barn who just got off the duck this past week. #4 MY SISTER NAT (FR) has a 3;1-2-0 ledger on the ITC, but has just one tally in about three calendars, so we'll relegate to the "unders". #3 WAR LIKE GODDESS shoots for the grand salami in this spot, and as she got her photograph taken in her lone "2nd off the L./O" attempt, we have to use. 

 

Race  12 

1.Forza Di Oro

2.Night Ops

3.Happy Saver

Pretty weak rendition of the Jockey Club this year, but here we go...  #1 FORZA DI ORO has had two monster layoffs thus far in his career, but has given nice accounts of himself after each with snappy scores ( the latter of the duo was at this locale ), and he even got the job done in his sole "second off the shelf" engagement. Should sit a perfect trip. #5 NIGHT OPS has been nibbling of late, and as we can't see a reason to get him on top, we'll leave underneath. #4 HAPPY SAVER had the five race win streak snapped in the Suburban, but has won off the shelf & can make amends. 

 

Saratoga          ( Current ): 80-393   ( $578.30 ) Beatable Favorites    7-17 ( 41.2% ) Favorites Win %:     156-393  ( 39.7% )  ( As of Sunday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 6-34        ( $54.40 )   Beatable Favorites    0-2     ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:    15-34     ( 42.5% )


Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2923-15087 ($25,472.60)  Beatable Favorites : 371-1361( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5706-15169 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3008-15655 ($26,291.80)   Beatable Favorites : 386-1429( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 5889-15756 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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