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In support of our troops, for the remainder of the meet, we will donate 2X our column winnings to the Wounded Warrior Project ( https://www.woundedwarriorproject.org/ ). They're a wonderful organization which lend aid to those who have bravely fought for our country. It may come out to just $250-$270, but every bit counts. Feel free to root along, or join in whole or part. 

Our 10:2-2-3-1 day yesterday got us $14.40 in returns, bringing the total amount for the above charity to $121.40 !!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, Parler @BrooklynCowboy, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Saratoga - 9/3 - God Bless Our Military

 

Race  1

1.Dorsoduro

2.Bet

3.Coastal Chaos

After posting a quartet of mediocre works, #6 DORSODURO had the screws tightened a bit with a 36 & 3 gate move here last Wednesday, and although the pedigree on this one isn't spectacular, this one is a half to an 11:4-2-2 dirt runner ( 37K ), and another who won her first and only start at Oldsmar back in January. Lands in a weak spot. #2 BET bested only a horse and the chase ambulance when starting things out, but the 445 Tomlinson for today's distance of ground is extremely strong, and there're enough big names in the family tree which tell us to give this one another chance. #4 COASTAL CHAOS as good as any for the show dough. 

  

Race  2

1.Bubble Rock

2.She's Stormy

3.Determined Charm 

#3 BUBBLE ROCK down the lane. #9 SHE'S STORMY is displaying a couple of quick ( dirt ) works for today's first afternoon trip to the frontside, and as she's better bred for the green than the brown, one could surmise that this one wasn't fully extended in those grass workouts. This one is a fill to still active racer Get Smokin, who's 15:4-3-2 on the gramma ( 376 big ones ), and that includes an 11-1 showing at first asking on this course. ( Kinda cool for Bush to have fill siblings in the same barn -- wonder if they're "neigh-bors" ! ) #4 DETERMINED CHARM is an expensive auction purchase beginning her working life here, and is a half to "Daddy's Kid" ( 13:4-1-3 on the sod, netting 200 big one's ). The interesting thing about that horse ? It gave us our first ever win here.

Something about fathers and sons.  OFF TURF: 2-7(MTO)-8-3-1

 

Race  3

1.Good Culture

2.Rift Valley

3.No Que No

#7 GOOD CULTURE takes the mandatory hike in class after being claimed on "Bijou Day", and despite that, we're giving this one a solid chance as a result of the lifetime best figaro earned in the last ( despite a fair amount of trouble ). Third try over the strip could be a charm. #1 RIFT VALLEY loses the eye cups for today's turf to dirt/route to sprint attempt, and is made available for purchase for the first time for a barn who's on the duck at this meet. #4 NO QUE NO is another with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump for the first time, and colt completed the triple in his only dirt attempt last fall. Barn has won with their last six ( two different ) dirt starters.  NOTE: AS OF 9:44, DUE TO AN ERROR, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-7-1.

 

Race  4 

1.Gator Bite

2.Grape Nuts Warrior

3.Mr. Kringle

#4 GATOR BITE followed up the maiden breaking effort with a decent fourth place finish in his first try against winners at the end of July, and although we're not quite sure what has compelled the light bulb to come on with this one, but we'll stick with him for today's 3rd off the layoff attempt. #7 GRAPE NUTS WARRIOR has partaken in the superfecta in all three starts thus far, and it appears as if the blinker experiment was a one time deal, as they're left back in the tack room today. Leaving beneath because of limited value beneath a slumping rider. #9 MR. KRINGLE is a fairly consistent sort who enters today off a win versus what we would consider to be a somewhat tougher allotment, and makes all kinds of sense.  OFF TURF: 6-3-7-1-10  NOTE: AS OF 10:05, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-7-9.

 

Race  5

1.Papa Smooth

2.Noctilucent

3.Dee Bo

#5 PAPA SMOOTH was claimed out of this race back on the 23rd of July -- his first start against winners -- and despite merely finishing 4th that day, quite often the second start vs. winners can go a lot better than the first, and Irad sees fit to ride. #7 NOCTILUCENT is an extremely fragile sort who's been laid up after each of his four starts to date, and factoring that in with the last place finishes over his recent duet, it's no wonder this one's entered at an all time low. Extremely mixed signals here, but at least it's encouraging to see Looie stick around. #2 DEE BO is returned to the purchase level from two starts back ( a heat where he finished 3rd, in losing by just a length ) and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today.  NOTE TO ALL @SaratogaBets , @BataviaBets , @YonkersRaceway & @capitalotb READERS: Due to a gate scratch in R6, #4 will be our 3rd selection.

 

Race  6 

1.Uni Loves a Fight

2.Howdyoumakeyourmoney

3.Our Tiny Dancer ( AE )

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #10 UNI LOVES A FIGHT was 5th of 6 in the July 5th debut at Elmont, but that came over a track labeled "good", and right off the bat, deserves a shot on firm ground. This one is a half to a West Virginia runner, who after showing moderate success on the dirt, was transferred over to the verde, and has been quite successful, going 3:2-1-0 on the stuff ( including a tally on Monday ) -- with all three being career bests in the Beyer department. #2 HOWDYOUMAKEYOURMONEY ( who has utilized the maximum amount of characters in the moniker ) displayed some decent early hoof at first asking, and by adjusting the fig from that day, and prorating it to what we feel she can do on the gramma, we see this one finishing no worse than 3rd in today's spot -- second, if our Also Eligible is scratched. #13 OUR TINY DANCER (AE) needs a fair amount of luck to make it over to the races, but showed some decent hoof in both turf trips ( showing in one at 20-1 ), and could be dangerous if able to get dressed for the dance.  OFF TURF: 1-3-8-2-10  NOTE: AS OF 10:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Winning Factor

2.Hieroglyphics

3.Chocolate Bar

#3 WINNING FACTOR has had a bit of reversal of fortunes of late, as after getting a hat trick, this grey fella has failed in seven straight -- all under identical conditions. What's going to get him over the hump today? We're not sure. What we do know, is that on our first draft analysis of this race, we got the main body of nine down to five, and as none of those are backed by positive trainer stats, we'll be leaning towards the one with some value. Backers of #6 HIEROGLYPHICS clearly saw the writing on the wall back on 5/23, as they backed this one down to 5/2 that day, and the seven year old responded with a game score. Gelding owns a three fer five mark on the Inner, and has the sort of declining mark ( 29:8-4-1 ) that we love to see. #1 CHOCOLATE BAR has partaken in the superfecta in eight straight, and that's enough to merit inclusion.  OFF TURF: 2(MTO)-1-7-8-4  NOTE TO ALL @SaratogaBets , @BataviaBets , @YonkersRaceway & @capitalotb READERS: Due to ( another ) gate scratch, the #8 will be our 3rd selection.

 

Race  8 

1.Big Bobby

2.Prince of Pharoahs

3.Gold Panda

#4 BIG BOBBY was a well beaten but decently clear runner up when facing victors for the first time, and given the troika of speed figs earned to date, looms a serious contendah in facing a so so allotment. #3 PRINCE OF PHAROAHS is the only one we see with a chance of upsetting the applecart here, based on this one's two placings in as many starts off the shelf, as well as the recent removal of his procreating abilities. #1 GOLD PANDA went wire to wire in the goo a half'a month back, and could pose a threat should the top choice falter. 

 

Race  9 

1.Noble Emotion

2.Holiday Stone

3.backtohisroots

#3 NOBLE EMOTION fell short of the three bagger by just a half'a length on this course back on August 13th, and as this one has led at the top of the stretch in seven of ten affairs, you pretty much know he's going to be in the thick of things late in the game. Slight edge in a race with no tosses. #7 HOLIDAY STONE is a well travelled seven year old "horse", ( You cling on to them stones, buddy boy ! ) who starts on his 16th ( ! ) different strip today, in just 38 career starts who just finished third in a stakes where two next out runners have gone 2:1-0-0-1 in their followups. #6 BACKTOHISROOTS hasn't been in action since dumping the pilot back in the fall, but completed the triple in his only turf dash off a respite ( @ 12-1 ), and has been gelded since last loaded into the gate.  OFF TURF: 3-2-8-1-7

  

Race  10

1.Pruning

2.Salit

3.Lady Valentine

#8 PRUNING got clipped by a couple late in the game to finish 3rd, after leading on the turn for home at Colonial Downs, and gets a fair jock upgrade for the NY bow. Better post today, and her second start on firm ground as well. #6 SALIT showed some improvement when dropping a bit in the last, and that may prove to be a nice confidence booster for this one. Over the last 60 weeks, McPeek is 7 for 15 with maiden special weight filly turf stayers who were ITM 1-41 days back @ 18-1 or under, and the payouts for that sampling were $13 x 2, $5 x 3, $8 & $11. #4 LADY VALENTINE has worked extremely well since the solid turf debut, and deserves your respect.  OFF TURF: 7-10-6-12(MTO)-5   NOTE: AS OF 10:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

  

Saratoga          ( Current ): 78-371    ( $540.70 ) Beatable Favorites    7-16 ( 43.8% ) Favorites Win %:     149-371 ( 40.2% )  ( As of Friday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 6-34        ( $54.40 )   Beatable Favorites    0-2     ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:    15-34     ( 42.5% )


Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2923-15087 ($25,472.60)  Beatable Favorites : 371-1361( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5706-15169 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3008-15655 ($26,291.80)   Beatable Favorites : 386-1429( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 5889-15756 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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