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God Bless our military. 


In support of our troops, for the remainder of the meet, we will donate 2X our column winnings to the Wounded Warrior Project ( https://www.woundedwarriorproject.org/ ). They're a wonderful organization which lend aid to those who have bravely fought for our country. It may come out to just $250-$270, but every bit counts. Feel free to root along, or join in whole or part.

After yesterday's three bagger ( to go along with three placings & a showing, along with Ice Cold Exactas of $18 & $37 and a Beatable Favorite ), we have now raised $92.60 for the above charity, with several of y'all offering to match in whole or part.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Saratoga - 9/2 - God Bless Our Military

 

Race  1

1.Blue Atlas

2.Mopolka

3.Coworth Park

#6 BLUE ATLAS was next to last in her first start in nearly the full length of a calendar, but is historically 3:1-1-0 in second starts off a break, and has won her last two starts when entered for this price. We'll give this lady a chance to rebound. #8 MOPOLKA has won her last two starts when made available for purchase, is one of two when breaking from the outside, and owns a 3:1-0-1-1 ledger on the Inner; logical. #4 COWORTH PARK has been freshened up a bit since the showing down at the Shore, and is in for a tag here, which is fairly relevant, as she got her Polaroid taken the only time that occurred.  OFF TURF: 8-3-2-1-7(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 10:27, OUR AMENDED SELECTION WILL BE 3(MTO)-1-7(MTO)

 

Race  2

1.Iberville

2.Liza's Ready

3.Slipstream

We don't have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly.  #10 IBERVILLE ( a parish in Louisiana ) begins his working life this afternoon, and does such with several quick morning moves in tow. Pioneer of the Nile offspring is pretty well bred for this sorta deal, and while the dam hit the board in all four starts on the synthetic, daddy was a victor on that stuff and the grass as well. We're not a huge fan of playing May foals first time out, but as there are no Jan/Feb dropped animals, we'll give this one a good shot. #9 LIZA'S READY is a gal facing the lads, and gets a three pound break in the weights because of such, and obviously the connex must be respected in this sorta deal. #2 SLIPSTREAM split the field in his lone turf attempt, but had a touch of trouble that day, and can show some improvement here.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-8-6  NOTE: AS OF 10:31, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4(MTO)-11-7

 

Race  3

1.Miss Alex

2.Esotica

3.Cause to Dream

Another race that we're not feeling the heat from...  Nonetheless...#3 MISS ALEX was in the rear with the gear when facing winners for the first time, but that's never an easy transition, and 3YO gets a big time upgrade in the jockey department with a switch to Jose. This one was heading in the right direction before the wheels came off here in late July, and we're banking on a rebound. #2 ESOTICA returned after a voided claim to grab the diploma when winning by half'a dozen a month ago, and if you prorate that to her best figure over a fast track, then the 67.7 BSF would work vs. these. #5 CAUSE TO DREAM has been kept in jail since the claim ( & poor effort ) on July 22nd, and comes back at that same level for a trainer who knows a thing or two.  NOTE: AS OF 10:35, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 7 & 4 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY. 

 

Race  4 

1.Sonneman

2.Our Last Buck

3.American Power

#3 SONNEMAN was sent to the sidelines after finishing out of the money in his recent troika, but Asmussen charge got the job done the only time he came back after a break in the action ( excluding a match race ) and is displaying a bullet for today's comebacker. Mild choice. #1 OUR LAST BUCK put forth a decent showing when returning off a respite in the John Morrisey, and aside from that, has partaken in the superfecta in three of four "second off the bench" deals. Recognize that the lone start at today's tricky distance ended up in a win, as well as the 2:1-1-0 mark when starting from the pine. #2 AMERICAN POWER ( two of four right here ) can be all yours for $100,000 today, and to be honest with you, it'd be interesting to see if anyone ( pending paddock soundness ) takes a shot, as this one goes over the 200K mark in 2021 with a 3rd place finish today ( in just eight months ). Threat if 100%. 

 

Race  5

1.Brown Entry

2.Mubtadaa

3.Aruba

Both the #1 DEREGULATION ( second off the layoff while dropping in class & getting a good jock change ) and the #1A DEFERRED TAXES ( same as the above, sans the L/O scenario ) comprise decent factions of the Chad Brown entry. #3 MUBTADAA has lost a little bit of ground in the lane in each start to date, but perhaps facing maiden platers for the first time is enough to help this one get over the hump. #8 ARUBA begins his working life a bit late, but with Kitten's Joy upstairs, we'll toss into the hopper.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-8-5(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 10:39, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-5(MTO)-7

 

Race  6 

1.Knightly Mischief 

2.The Institute

3.Gimmedamoney ( AE )

#4 KNIGHTLY MISCHIEF beat only one home when staring things out on the main three weeks back, but there's a DRF Formulator stat in play which says that this one may be sitting on a goodie. Over the last five years, McPeek quadruples his normative 14% win rate when it comes to his locally based maiden special weight dirt dashers running without Lasix, as he's 4 for 7 with that type ( 2TS'ers ), with payoffs of $3, $38, $10 & $13. #1 THE INSTITUTE is an Into Mischief firster taking her first afternoon trek to the frontside today, and does such with a fat Tomlinson figure of 414, as well as a recent pair of snappy morning moves. Dam was a lovely 15:5-6-0 ( 778G earned ), and this one is a half to a runner who's hit the board in both starts to date. #11 GIMMEEDAMONEY (AE) is on the outside looking in, but there's no drop after the recent flop, and fella outran his 18-1 offering when placing behind a next out winner in the local bow.  NOTE: AS OF 10:43, DUE TO A LAYE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Motivated Seller

2.Tiple ( Ire )

3.Summer Brew

#5 MOTIVATED SELLER immolated some baccala when returning off a seven month break in the action at the end of July, but that was her first start in the goo, and the good news is that this one hung up an adjusted 97.9 in her lone "second start off a L/O", and the race appears to go through her once again, despite it being her first on the gramma. #6 TIPLE (IRE) was dead last in her first start after a long absence, but lost by less than two that day in a blanket finish, and got her picture snapped the only time she came back off a true layoff ( and at 14-1 no less ). #8 SUMMER BREW has been ITM in five straight, and that includes a third place finish off the shelf.  OFF TURF: 2-5-8-3-1  NOTE: AS OF 10:47, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 9-4-8

 

Race  8 

1.Journeyman

2.Candy Tycoon

3.Shotski

#1 JOURNEYMAN was an honest enough runner up in essentially the same spot 26 days in the rear, and is logical once again. Slight edge. #4 CANDY TYCOON has been essentially a losing proposition for the connections at this point, and they run up the white flag here, spotting her for $40,000. Johnny gets back in the saddle, and he's done some nice things with this one. #7 SHOTSKI rounds out the top three in an affair that doesn't quite get the pulse racing. 

 

Race  9 

1.Mystic Eyes

2.Silvery Rill

3.Let's Be Clear

#9 MYSTIC EYES went coast to coast like butter and toast on the Mellon at first asking, and the nice bloodlines ( and subsequent turf breeze ) tell us that the result was no fluke that day. Gal should be able to utilize the speed shown that day to cross over from today's outside slot, and get close to the front end -- if not the lead itself. #5 SILVERY RILL missed by only a head when battling maidens 0n 8/1, and although she jumps into stakes company, it's not that big of a deal. Nice trainer stat in play, as C-Squared is 5 of 11 with 2nd time starters/2nd time routers on the sod, who were 1-2-3 at first asking, and are running without the big "L" ( $5 x 2, $4, $10 & $18 ). #8 LET'S BE CLEAR improved by about 20% from her first start to the second, when getting the sheepskin on the main, and although the turf pedigree isn't great, this one is a half to a couple'a decent turfers from as many siblings to try the stuff.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8-1-9  NOTE: AS OF 10:51, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-10-1

 

Race  10

1.Boom Boom Kaboom

2.Perfect Banker

3.Hot Doctor

#5 BOOM BOOM KABOOM is slowly having the looks of becoming that kind of a maiden, but the overall body of work is decent enough ( for this grouping ), and blinkers are re-affixed in an attempt to get him over the hump. #12 PERFECT BANKER can be somewhat forgiven the last, as this one has performed poorly in both sand starts thus far, and rates a chance if able to get back to the penultimate try, where a 60.1 was produced on the Widener down at Belmont. #3 HOT DOCTOR is back in for a tag after getting waffled at the MDSPWT level, and should be right there if able to get back to the # posted from the race claimed two starts ago.  OFF TURF: 3-5-8-2-1  NOTE: AS OF 10:55, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 8-10-3

 

Saratoga          ( Current ): 76-361    ( $526.30 ) Beatable Favorites    7-16 ( 43.8% ) Favorites Win %:     145-361 ( 40.2% )  ( As of Thursday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 6-34        ( $54.40 )   Beatable Favorites    0-2     ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:    15-34     ( 42.5% )


Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2923-15087 ($25,472.60)  Beatable Favorites : 371-1361( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5706-15169 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3008-15655 ($26,291.80)   Beatable Favorites : 386-1429( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 5889-15756 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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