Just a reminder that for today's complete Aqueduct selections & analysis, merely go back one page.
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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Graded Stakes - 3/27 - Gulfstream Park - Florida Derby
#6 SIGILOSO may not appear to have shown much in all his starts to date, but we feel there's some things to like here -- at a big price, no less. Sano charge has steadily improved in each start to date, and although they have been mostly on the turf, our adjustment scale has this one with the potential of being vastly improved in today's initial turf route. As a matter of fact, going off the most recent threat, we have prorated the most recent effort to a 93.4, and recognize the blistering 21.65 middle move in the recent 2X grass deal. before petering out a bit late in the game. But wait -- there's more ! Over the last 60 months, 12% barn is a crisp 6-28 when going green to brown with those who finished off the board < 55 days ago, and at healthy mutuels, too ( $25, $18 x 2, $7, $5 & $4. #5 KNOWN AGENDA must've appreciated the juice, eye cups, or being in a second off the L/O scenario last time out, as he was extremely impressive in crushing optional foes. While a bounce is always possible, we'd be remiss in excluding. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow next to the #7 GREATEST HONOR, as this one has gotten better and better along the way, and we see no reason another solid effort isn't feasible.
Aqueduct ( Current ): 82-438 ( $968.60 ) Beatable Favorites 5-13( 38.5% ) Favorites Win %: 150-438 ( 34.1% )( As of Saturday morning )
Graded Stakes ( Current ): 0-6 ( $0.00 ) Beatable Favorites 0-0 ( N/A ) Favorites Win %: 2-6 ( 33.3% )
Aqueduct Fall ( Final ): 28-175 ( $454.00 ) Beatable Favorites 1-9 ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win % 56-175 ( 32.0% )
Graded Stakes ( Final ): 10-54 ( $122.40 ) Beatable Favorites 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorites Win %: 17-53 ( 32.1% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):
( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465 ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%) +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68 ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587 ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6% against a 15.6% takeout
Dirt Tracks 2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40) Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9% against a 16.6% takeout