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Skunked yesterday, but we're still guaranteed a flat bet profit for the meet, and have a positive R.O.I. for the last 921 races dating back to Labor Day weekend ( by $38 ).  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/21

 

Race  1

1.She'sfirstclass

2.Lucky Girl

3.Moon Sweeper

#6 SHE'SFIRSTCLASS hasn't faced the starter in more than eight flips of the calendar, but posted a decent ( adj. ) 57.1 before being sent to the sidelines, and is backed by a splendid DRF Formulator statistic this afternoon. Over the last 1,826 days, Whylie is as wiley as Wile E. Coyote with female dirt dashers returning off respites of 56 days or more the last three years, at 23-1 or undah ( 4 & up ), as he's 5 for 7 with that type, and will you just look at these prices -- $11, $24, $41, $8, $21, $5 & $7. Pure genius. #2 LUCKY GIRL is a bit of an in and outer, but recently showed behind a next out winner, and is another who is backed by a nice trainer stat, as Bond has the Goldeneye w/ his second off the shelf dirt equines who crashed the fiesta 41-50 days back that are 25-1 or undah ( $5, $9 & $4 ). #1 MOON SWEEPER rounds out the top three. 

 

Race  2

1.Macho Jack

2.Earned Success

3.Justin Front

#4 MACHO JACK was kept in jail after a next to last place finish when claimed in early January, and returned at the exact same level to score by three parts of a length. The money's already been made for Rudy, so he looks to cut bait and run as this one is nearly halved in price this afternoon. Formulator at it again, as the aforementioned shotcaller is 6-13 with locally based, second off the snag sand sprinters who won 6 to 50 days ago & are 5-1 or beneath ( $4, $8, $3, $7, $5 & $10 ). #2 EARNED SUCCESS is the clear speed of this deal, and his best work has most definitely come at this trip ( 5 fer 12 in comparison to being 1 fer 9 otherwise ). Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #5 JUSTIN FRONT owns a 9:2-2-2 ledger at today's dx. and can grab a piece. 

 

Race  3

1.Misty Taste 

2.Holmdel Park

3.Trapped N My Mind

#2 MISTY TASTE only bested one in her first try against winners, but that's never an easy transition, and he did in fact replicate the figure earned from the maiden breaker, so there's that. Eligible to move up on the dropdown. #1 HOLMDEL PARK fell short by less than a length in his only dance at this level, and may trip out from the pocket. #5 TRAPPED N MY MIND is another sliding down a few pegs and is sans eye cups for the first time. Meh. 

 

Race  4 

1.Frosted Indian

2.Iron Giant

3.The Red Wraith

Wide open maiden event here. Despite stretching out, #1 FROSTED INDIAN showed improved speed in the most recent, but perhaps Neville thought he was a bit too keen that day, as the blinker experiment is now but a memory. The gate breeze last Saturday was positively scintillating ( best of 117 ) and we like how there's no scary drop for this $15,000 auction purchase. #4 IRON GIANT is another with a crisp gate move on the docket for today's career starter and could spice things up a bit. #7 THE RED WRAITH draws decently and jockey/trainer combo have fared well together.  NOTE: AS OF 11:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Baby Boss

2.Eloquent Speaker

3.My Roxy Girl

#1 BABY BOSS is an extremely steady sort who was recently claimed for the third time in seven starts, and is reunited with a pilot under whose guidance resulted in two tallies from as many attempts. Mare who was bred by an hombre who was a sergeant of yours truly in the Mounted Unit, has a nice barn stat behind her, as clan is a snappy 7:5-2-0 with dirt fillies who were purchased 48-50 days back. The mutuels for that survey were ( $20, $8 x 2, $4 & $2 ), and gal has done well going today's distance of ground. #3 ELOQUENT SPEAKER has missed the board but once in her working life, and totes her lightest impost yet. Y'all know #2 MY ROXY GIRL has been our favorite horse in training for quite some time know, as not only has this $1,700 New York bred earned 312 times that amount to date ( possibly the best ratio for any NY gal sold at auction ), but it's how she tries which got her into our heart -- stretching out, nose to the ground, giving it her all. Voided claim when last seen is no bueno, but at least there's no scary drop, and 6YO is 1 of 3 off a break in the action. 

 

Race  6 

1.Mia Bea Star

2.Fair Lassie

3.Funny Bones Flag

#5 MIA BEA STAR goes from an apprentice to a leading journeyman for today's second try in the starter ranks, and Rice brings in a tidy but tight 3 for 6 record with Ozone Park based female dirt sprinters who missed the baccala < 44 days back ( four year olds & upward ), w/payoffs of $5, $6 & $8. #4 FAIR LASSIE has been ITM in her recent quartet, six of eight, and is claim protected after the Feb. 25th purchase; digs the local seagulls as well. #1 FUNNY BONES FLAG has done very little wrong, and although this allotment may be too salty for her, we can most definitely see a minor award at the very least. 

 

Race  7

1.Alphadora

2.Dancing Kiki

3.Foley Square

#6 ALPHADORA bested only two in the return engagement -- a horse & the chase ambulance -- but Coffey trainee had some extra perk in one of her two "2nd off the L/O" spins, winning by about a half'a dozen on this strip. Price play. #2 DANCING KIKI faded turning for home when facing victress's for the 1st time, but Franco sticks around, and the last has proven to be a key race, as all six returnees have come back to ring up a cumulative 6:3-0-2-1 record, which makes this one fairly live. #5 FOLEY SQUARE has won her last suet over a glib surface, and pre-layoff jock returns, which we always find reassuring. 

 

Race  8 

1.Tourist Attraction

2.Tiny Magoo

3.Madame Rose

#1A TOURIST ATTRACTION will be led over to the races today by her third different shotcaller in as many outings, and it's a substantial improvement over the most recent. Best effort to date was in a 2nd off the layoff scenario, and filly gets in light. Mild choice. #3 TINY MAGOO has by far the best collection of BSF's in the grouping, and recently finished a nose behind a next out winner vs. NY Breds right here when last in action. Will take some pounding at the windows. #4 MADAME ROSE showed her best speed to date just nine days ago, and once in a while -- despite going off at boxcar odds -- we've seen subtle improvement such as that result in a surprise finish resulting in big payouts. 

 
Aqueduct        ( Current ):    81-422     ( $957.20 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-13( 38.5% ) Favorites  Win %:   147-422  ( 35.1% )( As of Sunday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):   0-6           ( $0.00 )    Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites  Win %:     2-6       ( 33.3% )


Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 ) Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 ) Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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