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Not much to get the pulse racing here yesterday, but we're guaranteed a flat bet profit for the meet, and have a positive return on investment for our last 912 races ( by $47 ). 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #2 Breakfastatbonnies


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/20

 

Race  1

1.Wicked Easy

2.Jade's Dream

3.Got the Gold

#6 WICKED EASY was a lively and well clear runner up in the is race 23 days back, and although the number came back a bit lowish, we're soothed by the fact that there's a tidy but tight DRF Formulator stat in play here. Over the last 260 weeks, DePaz is a delightful three for three with maiden claiming dirt stock who crashed the fiesta less than 51 days back @ are 6-1 or lower, and the winners in that survey came back $11, $7 & $10, and this one sheds 32 ounces while drawing ideally. #2 JADE'S DREAM takes the biggest drop in the game today, and Nevin has a juicy 7:4-0-1-1 boxscore when doing just that to their dirt equines off respites of 18-50 days ( $3, $4 & $5 x 2 ). #1 GOT THE GOLD is another one taking the plunge and catches a fast track for the first time. 

 

Race  2

1.Playwright

2.Hammerin Aamer

3.Blugrascat's Smile

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #6 PLAYWRIGHT has done his finest work at this trip ( 6 for 17, compared to oh-fer-19 otherwise ), and drops five lb.'s ( our hero after St. Patrick's Day ) off the recent/decent showing. No worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there. We gave the thumbs up to a friend to drop a slip for #5 HAMMERIN AAMER two back ( which didn't come to bear ), and after he scored that day, there was a hike in class was made afterwards, with an even fourth place finish being the end result. Connections have put about $32,000 into this animal ( with about 17K in net returns ), and a win & a claim here would give them a $2,000 profit on the whole transaction. I'd claim this sucker and keep him on the shelf for Belmont -- which he positively loves. #1 BLUGRASCAT'S SMILE is a salty ol' warhorse w/a 10:4-2-0-2 mark when first to load, and found the line first in his sole start at this level; would be no surprise. 

 

Race  3

1.Save

2.Salt Page

3.Just Read It

#4 SAVE has essentially gone coast to coast in both starts to date, and the fact that she replicated the maiden breaking figure in her first start versus winners is something which impresses us. 398 Tomlinson figure tells us that there may be some room for improvement, and it looks like Amoss has a goodie on his hands. #3 SALT PAGE has improved with each start to date, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. This is another who's bred extremely well, so I wouldn't be worried about a bounce off the last, and homebred has a big shot here. #5 JUST READ IT ( by 'Constitution"...dig it ) flopped on on the poly, but that ain't for everyone, and can make amends if able to get back to the penultimate effort. 

 

Race  4 

1.Vallarand

2.Pleasure Luck

3.Breakfastatbonnies

Another heat where our listed troika should suffice.  #4 VALLARAND must've appreciated either the Lasix or being in a third off the layoff scenario last time out, as gal got up in time to secure the diploma at this trip & over this trip. Three returnees fro that affair have come back to amass a cumulative 3:2-0-1 mark ( from two sui generis heats ), with ALL three improving in the Beyer department by an average of 17.333333333 points. Smartly spotted with a tag today by Charlie. #1 PLEASURE LUCK positively blitzed the competition the only time he broke from the pine, has yet to miss the board, and now has the wonder drug administered for the 1st time; solid show bet.   BEATABLE FAVORITE/3RD CHOICE: #2 BREAKFASTATBONNIES went all the way at first asking on the second of the year, but Gargan has an 0-10 record with 2TS'ers coming in off a tally; mixed signals. 

 

Race  5

1.Profusion

2.Warfront Fighter

3.Confectioner

#6 PROFUSION hasn't faced the starter for a couple of St. Patrick's Days, but gets a major trainer upgrade since last in action, has blinkers affixed for the first time, and gets his second shot over a glib surface. A threat if fully cranked up. #7 WARFRONT FIGHTER is a deserving favorite in this spot given the improving #'s over his last quartet, but we're not huge fans of taking single digit trainers at low odds, so we'll leave this fringe player beneath. #3 CONFECTIONER ( by Twirling Candy...ya get it ? ) is a lightly raced five year old who usually gives a decent account of himself, so we'll chunk in. 

 

Race  6 

1.Tiz Kaz Now

2.Leap to Glory

3.Quickflash

#2 TIZ KAZ NOW ground ( or is it 'grinded' ? ) out a win against mid level platers over this oval last week, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. The good news, is that Broberg nearly doubles his normative 24% win rate with freshly purchased allowance dirt dashers coming in off a win such as this, as he's 9-20 in that regards, w/a flat bet profit as well. #1 LEAP TO GLORY has done his best work going today's distance of ground, but has been camera shy for a year and a half, so we'll relegate this one to the "unders". #5 QUICKFLASH hasn't been in action since the fall, but Kimmel charge outran his odds when a lively and well clear runner up in his only try off the shelf when placing directly in front of a next out winner ( at 13-1 no less ). Grey gelding has some decent familiarity with today's pilot. 

 

Race  7

1.The Sicarii

2.Reed Kan

3.Full Salute

#6 THE SICARII was a mite tardy to the party on 2/28, but overcame that to grab the third place check when facing slightly tougher at 28-1, and though DeLauro wins just 6% of the time, he clicks to a 3-11 rate with mid level dirt dashers who hit the board < 44 days in the rear ( 18-1 or lower ). The payouts for that sampling were a healthy $36, $18 & $7, and recognize today's reunion with Cancel, who was aboard for this one's last tally. #7 REED KAN sure is a game old ridgling ( ouch ) as the 10 fer 25 lifetime mark shows, and he's also fared well in Ozone Park and going 3/4's. Seems to have lost a step over the last duet, but we'll give him another shot on the slight dropdown. #1 FULL SALUTE has been in the H.P.P/ ( Horsewitness Protection Program ) for quite some time, but 8YO has won two of six off the bench & is a snappy 4 for 5 when going in the gate first.   NOTE: AS OF 12:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Bustin Timberlake

2.Steam Engine

3.More Graytful

#2 BUSTIN TIMBERLAKE got the job done in a big way when winning at the level just below this on the 15th of February, earning a career best figaro in the process ( his second consecutive of such ), and has posted two solid works since; repeat well within reach. We're shocked to see Vargas keep the mount on #3 STEAM ENGINE in this spot. Runner was the easiest kind of winner in this race when last seen, and was justifiably DQ'd when the rider made not one, but TWO completely unnecessary infractions on the backside. Obvious factor once again -- with a tidier sojourn. #6 MORE GRAYTFUL is back in with state breds today, and the only way to do such would be to have a $40,000 claiming tag attached, which it is. 8:3-3-0 Queens mark pops off the page, and we'll toss into the hopper. 

 

Race  9 

1.Irresistible Girl

2.Winds of Capri

3.Summer Brew

#3 IRRESISTIBLE GIRL has posted a couple of decent running lines to start out her working life, and exits the same race as our top selection in today's fourth, so this one's stock goes up if that one put's forth a strong performance. Logical contendress. #5 WINDS OF CAPRI did much better than expected first time out -- closing out the exacta at 18-1 -- and the 378 Tomlinson figure for teh dx. says to us that the result was likely not a fluke. #9 SUMMER BREW has been 1-2-3 in all three starts over a fast track ( outside of stakes company ), and while a regression is always possible in the 2nd off the layoff / 2nd time Lasix deal, we'd be silly to exclude. 

 

Aqueduct        ( Current ):    80-413     ( $947.90 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-12( 42.5% ) Favorites  Win %:   145-413  ( 35.1% )( As of Saturday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):   0-6           ( $0.00 )    Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites  Win %:     2-6       ( 33.3% )


Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 ) Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 ) Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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