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Blanked on Sunday, but we still have a guaranteed flat bet profit for the last three meets, as well as our most recent 904 races, dating back to Labor Day Weekend ( by $62 ). 

NOTE: IF TRACK IS UPGRADED TO FAST, ORIGINAL SELECTIONS ARE IN PLAY.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/19

 

Race  1

1.Life On the Edge 

2.Miss Liana

3.Cover Photo

#5 LIFE ON THE EDGE hasn't been in action since the fall, but filly posted an adjusted 67.7 in her lone start off a hiatus, and although that came on the turf, it prorates to about a 63.9 on the sand -- which more than fits here. Four year old is two for six over a glib surface and rates a slight edge. #3 MISS LIANA is 7:3-2-0 over a glib surface, and was a well beaten ( albeit decently clear ) runner up directly in front of a next out winner in her only other "true" 3rd off the layoff attempt; logical contender. #2 COVER PHOTO had an inexcusable flop at 7-2 in the most recent, but as this one had ascended the Beyer ladder over the triad just prior to that, we'll give her a chance to make amends in today's opener. 

 

Race  2

1.Overdressed

2.Take It Off

3.Investment Grade

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #1 OVERDRESSED found the line first the only time he was put in with a 20K tag attached to her rump, has pretty much been a part of the superfecta in every dirt attempt, and Maker more than doubles his normative batting average with 3YO mid level dirt stock in the 32-50 day range at 7-1 or less, as he's 15-41 in that regards ( 37% ) w/a positive return on investment. #4 TAKE IT OFF finds herself at her lowest level to date, and speedy sort goes from an apprentice to a journeyman here. #2 INVESTMENT GRADE was in the rear with the gear when facing winners in the first start off the claim for Papa Englehart, and is spotted at a more palatable level today.   NOTE: AS OF 11:57, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-7-5.

 

Race  3

1.Tiergan

2.Wild Banker

3.Moonlight Now

#6 TIERGAN got up in time to best what we would consider to be a tougher allotment right here 26 days in the rear, and that got him out of the local "nibbler" status, as he's now 7:1-4-0 in Ozone Park. Jockey upgrade in store in this spot, as Romero heads to Hallandale Beach, and Rudy Rod a poyfect 4 fer 4 with dirt dashers who got their photos taken 50 days ago ( $8 x 2, $6 & $13 ). Of course, we dig the draw. #5 WILD BANKER is another with some improvement in the irons and has done his finest work over this oval ( 2-9 ) in comparison to other strips ( 0-8 ). Should be coming late. #2 MOONLIGHT NOW hasn't been seen in a couple of St. Patrick's Days, but returns to the scene of his greatest glory, and is a threat if fully cranked up.  NOTE: AS OF 1:55 P.M. THURSDAY ( HAPPY SAINT PATRICK'S DAY, BTW !! ) WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR SECOND & THIRD SELECTIONS.

 

Race  4 

1.Venus Oyzo

2.Malibu Anthem

3.Cherokee Song

#7 VENUS OYZO takes the biggest drop in the game today, and according to DRF Formulator, Randi ( just 6% on the norm ) has won with 2 of 7 local maiden claiming dirt dashers who missed the baccala less than a dozen days back who are beneath the 25-1 watermark. The winners in that survey came back $24 & $19, and barn did right by us a few weeks back. #4 MALIBU ANTHEM has a mild propensity for burning some bread, but is 3rd off a respite and may have a reversal of fortune vs. this weak allotment. #1 CHEROKEE SONG ( 2nd half of the uncoupled entry with 'Oyzo ) has displayed improvement in each & every of her six outings on a fast track, so who knows where her ceiling is in that regards.   NOTE: AS OF 12:01, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Cobble Hill 

2.Joycee Has Pizazz

3.True Believe

#6 COBBLE HILL was in the rear with the gear when coming off a 4 1/2 month layoff on 2/27, but historically speaking, this one is one of two in second off the break attempts, two for  two at the dx., and there happens to be a solid DRF Formulator stat in play as well. Over the last 60 months, R.R. is on the right track with Queens based dirt stock at this level ( ridden by Manny Man ) off L/O's of < 38 days ), and the parimutual payoffs for that sampling were $6, $9, $5, $3 & $4. #1 JOYCEE HAS PIZZAZ shoots for the hat trick today and it's well within reach, given the recent figaros, upgrade in the saddle, and this one's proclivity for hitting the board. Recognize the fact that the 3rd place finisher from the most recent ( a notorious nibblah ) got the job done in a big way next time out, improving in the BSF department by 31.8% in the process. #4 TRUE BELIEVE drops in class off a fourth place finish and gets the meet's leading jock legged up.  NOTE: AS OF 12:05, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Mister Winston

2.O'Trouble

3.Edge of Fire

#4 MISTER WINSTON hasn't faced the starter since 'Toga time, but colt hung up an adj. 93.4 the only time he returned off a hibernation, and Brown has a lively 7 for 18 record with AQU based one turn dirt equines off disappearances of 51-391 days below 10-1. Note that the J/T combo are clicking at an 8:3-3-2 rate of late. #7 O'TROUBLE is in excellent form these days and was a gamely runner up in his one and only start off of this kind of layoff; draws the outside for the first time. #1 EDGE OF FIRE has been befallen by layoff lines after his last troika of events, but loses the eye cups and gets a rider who's some some good things this winter. 

 

Race  7

1.Doublepour

2.D J Stable Entry

3.Bellamy Dolce

#2 DOUBLEPOUR is a bit light from a BSF perspective, but sometimes these youngsters can improve by leaps and bounds, and we like the grittiness shown in two of his last three trips to the track. No worldbeaters signed on here, so we'll take a shot at a price in what we consider to be the most wide open race of the day.  Both the #1 MAKE IT IN NY ( one for two over this strip, getting juice & eye cups for the first time ) and #1A BOWING SNOWMAN ( 2:1-1-0 over a local fast track ) comprise adequate factions of the D J Stable entry. #4 BELLAMY DOLCE rounds out the top three ( which is another way of saying that we've run out of loquaciousness at 1:43 in the morning ).   NOTE: AS OF 1:59 P.M. THURSDAY WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR SECOND & THIRD SELECTIONS.

 

Race  8 

1.Theitalianamerican

2.Scotto

3.Trustyourinstict

#9 THEITALIANAMERICAN is confidently hiked up in class despite trailing throughout in his first start off the Broberg claim, and we wonder if that has to do with something positive having been shown in the mornings with regards to today's blinker re-addition. Slight edge. #6 SCOTTO showed stark improvement when leaving the Sciacca barn, as he overcame some traffic to complete the exacta at 18-1, and while a bounce is always possible with a horse coming off a big effort when getting the miracle drug for the first time, we'd be remiss in excluding. #3 TRUSTYOURINSTINCT has a tendency to set money ablaze, but despite Contessa's 1-39 skein before his departure from training, we'll toss in because of the overall body of work.

  

Aqueduct        ( Current ):    79-405     ( $944.20 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-12( 42.5% ) Favorites  Win %:   142-405  ( 35.1% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):   0-6           ( $0.00 )    Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites  Win %:     2-6       ( 33.3% )


Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 ) Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 ) Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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