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Another solid day for us here yesterday as we went 10:3-4-1 on the card ( with the placings going off at 6-1, 2-1, 24-1 & 3-1 ), and additionally, we had the following...

--Three winners of $9, $4 & $6

--An $80 Quinella Box

--Four Exacta Boxes of $203, $32, $19 & $137

--Two Triple Boxes of $65 & $461

--Four Rolling Doubles of $121, $218, $18 & $10

--Two Rolling Pick Threes of $989 & $37 

We now have a $2.36 R.O.I. for the meet ( guaranteed flat bet profit ), and are in the black for our last three meets, 895 races ( with $80 to spare ).


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/14

 

Race  1

1.High Press

2.Camouflaged Kisser

3.Jailbreaker

#5 HIGH PRESS has only beaten home but one in two starts to date, but takes the biggest drop in the game today while being in receipt of the wonder drug for the first time. There's a trainer upgrade in play here form an outfit who does well when getting a runner handed to them, and we'll give this one a tepid nod in an opener with no first draft eliminations. #2 CAMOUFLAGED KISSER hasn't been seen since the second day of the year, but lightly raced five year old catches a glib surface for the first time, and brings along a decent work for the comebacker. #1 JAILBREAKER has a couple of decent running lines and is as good as any for the show dough.

 

Race  2

1.Kentucky Cool

2.Meetmeincali

3.Writers Regret

#2 KENTUCKY COOL sure is a game sort, having crossed the line first in four of seven ( having been set down in one of those ) and is hiked up in class for the 2nd straight time after the recent tally. Slight edge in a tight affair. #4 MEETMEINCALI went coast to coast like butter and toast in his sole try over a fast track and gets a bit time jockey switch from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon. Big shot in getting juice for the second time. #3 WRITER'S REGRET was a well beaten but decently clear runner up in this race on Saint Valentine's Day, and should be right there once again. 

 

Race  3

1.Steal My Heart

2.Cheatham Hill

3.Wailin Josie

#2 STEAL MY HEART outran her odds as the longest shot in the field when finishing 5th of 8 ( by just 4 and change ), and the figure earned from that day is comparable to pretty much everyone signed on, so why not give this one a shot at what will once again likely be a decent offering ?   #1 CHEATHAM HILL slides in from the eight hole to the pine and goes from a bug to a vet this afternoon, while cutting back a half'a panel. Best work has come right here, and this one could jazz things up a bit. #3 WAILIN JOSIE has partaken in the triple in her last quartet, and who are we to rock that boat? 

 

Race  4 

1.Clemenza 

2.Lemon Drop Road

3.Kid Cash

#1 CLEMENZA failed to bring home the cannoli money when faltering at 2-1 last time out, but the recent work was right on the button for this Breen charge. Four year old draws well, and should most definitely be tossed into the sauce. #2 LEMON DROP ROAD was quite disappointing in the most recent, and after that "L", gets the big "L" administered for the first time while also having blinkers affixed. We like that there's no scary drop -- yet. #3 KID CASH has hit the board in three of four dirt attempts ( while encountering some trouble in the lone blemish ) and gets a better helmsman in this spot.   NOTE: AS OF 10:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Ajaaweed

2.Lost In Rome

3.Magic Michael

#1 AJAWEED showed absolutely nada when returning off a full length of the calendar sabbatical, but as this one has some back class to him, we'll afford him another shot. #7 LOST IN ROME has been in the back half of the field in his last duet, but on the whole, has a nice body of work, which includes a two for three mark at the distance, and a 2:1-1-0 ledger when last to load ( with a win overlapping ). Hot pilot climbs aboard, and he was astride for a lively 3rd place finish way back when. #3 MAGIC MICHAEL is but a neck shy of having won all four starts since being claimed by Ness back in mid November ( Another Festivus MIRACLE !! ), and is difficult to dismiss. 

 

Race  6 

1.Knockout Punch

2.Step to the Bank

3.Much Trouble

#4 KNOCKOUT PUNCH was in the rear with the gear when facing winners for the first time, but don't judge too harshly, as that's not an easy transition for many diploma earners. Having said that, we like that this one is still protected against being purchased, and definitely rates a shot if able to get back to the penultimate effort. #3 STEP TO THE BANK has oodles of early zip, and may last a bit longer in today's third start off the shelf. #2 MUCH TROUBLE nearly went all the way in a similar spot a bit over five weeks ago, and three returnees from that heat have gone 3:1-1-0-1 in their subsequent outings, with negligible change in the BSF area. Carmouche is once again legged up, and he was on board for the last tally.   NOTE: AS OF 10:45, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Daddy Knows

2.Just Right

3.Wudda U Think Now

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #4 DADDY KNOWS has been alternating losses and wins over his last quintet, so today should be a score, right? If only the game was that simple. 5YO has done his best work on this oval ( 3 of 6, compared to a 1 for 7 mark otherwise ), and Manny Man ( who steered this one to victory in their only pairing ) gets the call. #2 JUST RIGHT has been a popular item at the claim box of late ( new address after his last three trips to the track ), and this is another one who digs the local seagulls, as the 7:3-1-0 Ozone Park mark shows, and sheds 32 ounces off a 1 1/2 length loss. #6 WUDDA U THINK NOW has yet to finish out of the superfecta and gets a hot Trevor in the stirrups.  NOTE: AS OF 10:49, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Echoes of Destiny

2.Reggae Music Man

3.It's Gravy

Today's featured race is named after famed New York writer, Damon Runyon, and for some edification on the man, feel free to go to this page right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damon_Runyon . As for the race itself, we'll lean towards the #4 ECHOES OF DESTINY. Gelding overcame a bit of traffic when rallying from the pack to light up the tote board at 26-1 back on the 6th of February, and although the number from that day came back a bit light, the pedigree tells us there's some room for improvement, and sometimes these lightly raced freshmen & sophomores can improve by leaps and bounds. We were on the #7 REGGAE MUSIC MAN first time out, and have dug his chances in each start since, so we see little reason to get off him now, after that snappy maiden breaker. #6 IT'S GRAVY got out of the maiden ranks last time out ("All you got to do is get out of here, and it's all gravy the rest of your life -- gravy." )  is another who's never missed the board, but loses Lasix now, so we'll keep in the "unders". 

 

Race  9 

1.Bastet

2.Lightfoot Miss

3.Despeight All Odds

#5 BASTET was a lively runner up behind a next out winner in a near identical spot two fortnights in the rear, and as a matter of fact, this one has been on the board in both dirt tries where the jock stayed aboard. Sensible selection. #2 LIGHTFOOT MISS was a well beaten third at this level last month, and may move up a bit for today's third off the shelf foray. #1 DESPEIGHT ALL ODDS is a bit of an in and outer, but takes the plunge here and draws snugly in the final to the week.

  
Aqueduct        ( Current ):    79-396     ( $944.20 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-12( 42.5% ) Favorites  Win %:   137-396  ( 34.6% ) ( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ):   0-5           ( $0.00 )    Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites  Win %:     1-5       ( 20.0% )


Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 ) Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 ) Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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