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One was the loneliest number for us here yesterday, but it's all gravy from here on out, as we've already secured a flat bet profit for the meet ( and the two meets prior, as well ).

Just a reminder that for today's coverage of Santa Anita's Beholder Mile, merely go back one page.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/13

 

Race  1

1.Saint Selby

2.B C Glory Days

3.Forty Two Ace

#8 SAINT SELBY lands in a fairly soft spot for today's career starter, has a couple'a nice works on the docket, draws well, and has a nice jockey/trainer combo in play as well. Moderate selection in today's opener. #2 B C GLORY DAYS is the clear speed of this deal, catches a fast track for the first time, and despite the recent disappointment, the race goes through this January foal. #7 FORTY TWO ACE had blinkers added in the most recent showing, but merely replicated the figure earned in the prior outing, so while we'll be incorporating, it's not with the utmost of confidence. 

 

Race  2

1.Love Me Tomorrow

2.Charlotte Webley 

3.Vitanza

We don't have the best of feels for this race, so please tread lightly...  #4 LOVE ME TOMORROW has oodles of early zip, and while this one gives up the ghost more often than not, we're assuaged by the fact that her best work has come right here ( 7:1-3-2 ) in comparison to other strips ( 10:0-1-5 ). Grab her by the tail to get the glory. #8 CHARLOTTE WEBLEY is another zippy sort who gets a jockey improvement off the most recent, and rates a big shot if the above stubs her hoof a bit. #2 VITANZA was all out to procure the sheepskin by a sliver three dozen days in the rear, and sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a while. 

 

Race  3

1.Strafe

2.Back Channel

3.Synonymous

#4 STRAFE ( a late bloomer to this game ) was a gamely runner up when debuting in this race on the 22nd of January, and the 390 Tomlinson figure tells us that not inly was the result likely not an aberration, but that there's ample room for improvement. #3 BACK CHANNEL ( uncoupled entrymate with the above ) has been beset by back to back layoff lines, and although she owns the best collection of speed figures in the allotment, we'll keep beneath because of her propensity for burning baccala. #1 SYNONYMOUS has a couple of decent morning moves for today's first trip to the track, but you'll need to check the scratch board here, as one half of the Pregman entry must be declared.   NOTE: AS OF 10:49, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Hero's Hope

2.Orpheus ( Arg )

3.Hawaiian Noises

#8 HERO'S HOPE was extremely wide when showing absolutely nada in his first start off the claim, so right off the bat, caveat emptor. Nonetheless, the figures earned in this one's last quartet are comparable to what several in here have posted, and perhaps this one perks up a bit with a switch back to Hernandez. Meeeeeeeeeek choice. #6 ORPHEUS (ARG) has only beaten home seven in her last triad, but owns a decent boxscore at the dist. and may grab a slice. #7 HAWAIIAN NOISES goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today and finds himself at his lowest level to date. 

 

Race  5

1.Fox Red

2.Storm Advisory

3.Shamrocked

These three and no more for all our rolling action.   #3 FOX RED is a very consistent sort who's partaken in the triple in seven of his last eight, and happens to be backed by a decent Daily Racing Form Formulator stat for today's drop in class. Over the last 1,826 days, Rudy Rod more than doubles his normative 18% batting average with locally based, second off the claim mid level dirt stock who were 1-2-3 < 50 days back & are 9-1 or undah, as he's 8-19 in that regards ( with a positive ROI ). #4 STORM ADVISORY is quite the ol' warhorse, as this one aims to go over the 600K mark with a tally today; needs to rebound off the recent disappointment. #2 SHAMROCKED takes the obligatory hike in class after being purchased two fortnights ago, and pre-claim jock returns, which is something we always dig.

  

Race  6 

1.Devious Mo

2.Alite

3.Royal Kaz

Another heat where our top threesome should suffice.  #5 DEVIOUS MO drops for the second straight time in today's 3rd off the layoff/3rd off the claim attempt, and R.R. is on the right track with his Aqueduct based maiden claiming sand stock ridden by Franco who were OTB 22-50 days in the past, as he's 5 fer 12 in that regards ( $3, $7, $11, $6 & $13 ). #9 ALITE appeared to bounce a bit off the career best outing, and is reunited with the pilot from that heat. #2 ROYAL KAZ ( who should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there ) has yet to miss the superfecta in any sprint to date and makes all kinds of sense versus these.

 

Race  7

1.Tiz Kaz Now

2.Wardenofthenorth

3.Gratto Swing

#3 TIZ KAZ NOW posted an adjusted 73.9 ( against tougher ) in one of his start off a true L/O, and scored by a pole ( directly in front of a next out winner ) in the other. There's a major trainer change in play for today's return to the races, and gelding has never been entered this cheaply. Things to like. #1 WARDENOFTHENORTH hasn't been in action since the fall, but is another who's fared admirably off a respite ( 74.7 ) and is snugly drawn for today's comebacker. #9 GRATTO SWING blew up the toteboard to the tune of nearly $150 two months back and should be left in the hopper.  NOTE: AS OF 10:53, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Big Engine 

2.Secret Rules

3.High Velocity

#2 BIG ENGINE was an honest runner up when returning off a bit of a freshening in the Hollie Hughes, and historically, this one has fared well in "second off the shelf" engagements. On that note, Rice ( any word on her hearing with the state yet ? ) is a tight 3 for 7 with Ozone Park based optional dirt stock off that type of break at 9-1 or undah ( in the money less than 51 days back ). The mutuels for that survey were $5, $8 & $3, and the miracle drug is once again part of the equation.#8 SECRET RULES has yet to finish off the board, and what the hell's wrong with that ?  #4 HIGH VELOCITY hung up an adj. 88.6 in his lone "true" 2nd off the bench deal, which would work decently in this spot. 

 

Race  9 

1.Call On Mischief

2.Kansas Kis

3.Sadie Lady

#4 CALL ON MISCHIEF went five wide in a field of a half'a dozen when spotted in a stake despite being one day out of jail last time out, and we like the fact that the always dapper Kelly Breen thinks enough of this animal to once again keep her protected against being purchased. recognize today's reunion with Juarez ( aboard for the debut victory ) who returns off a bit of an hiatus. #1 KANSAS KIS often gives a good account of herself ( as the 10 of 12 superfecta rate belies ), and does well when covered up on the inside. We always pay special attention to those who fail as a favorite, returning @ a decent offering. #2 SADIE LADY is extremely fleet afoot, but the 0-3 mark off a hibernation is enough reason for us to keep her underneath. 

 

Race  10

1.Forest Spirit 

2.Skippinandajumpin

3.In the Zone

#1 FOREST SPIRIT merely bested half the field in an identical spot last out, but Carlito has his "Way" with AQU based maiden claiming dirt equines off respites of 1-50 days ( ridden by Cancel ), as he's a crisp 4 for 7 in that area, w/healthy payoffs of $3, $20, $10 & $6. #4 SKIPPINANDAJUMPIN is backed by a tidy but tight trainer stat which has this barn at exactly that with freshly purchased runners of this ilk off L/O's of 42-50 days, as they've won with half of their six starters ( $3, $5 & $7 ). #7 IN THE ZONE closes things out for us.  

 

Aqueduct        ( Current ):    76-386     ( $926.00 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-12( 42.5% ) Favorites  Win %:   134-386  ( 34.8% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ):   0-5           ( $0.00 )    Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites  Win %:     1-5       ( 20.0% )


Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 ) Beatable Favorites    1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 ) Beatable Favorites    0-1   (  0% )     Favorites Win %:    17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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