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A chalky three bagger to close out the week for us here on Sunday, but we're already guaranteed a flat bet profit for the meet and have a positive return on investment for the last 877 races ( with $96 to spare ). 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/12

 

Race  1

1.Know It All Red

2.Calidad

3.Jill's a Hot Mess

#1 KNOW IT ALL RED has only beaten one home in her last duet, but was extremely wide in the most recent, and is reunited with a pilot who's done some nice work of late. From an itty bitty sampling, Toscano is a tight two of three when giving his dirt stock this kind of drop off breaks of 25 days or less ( 63-1 or beneath ). The winners came back $12 & $13, and there ain't no world beaters signed on here. #9 CALIDAD is the most consistent performer in the allotment whose career best numero came over this strip, and 11% Levine more than triples that rate with maiden claiming sand stock who crashed the fiesta less than three fortnights back & are under the 28-1 watermark ( ridden by Carmouche ). The mutuels in that survey were $12, $10 & $6, and of course, we like the draw. #6 JILL'S A HOT MESS takes the biggest drop in the game while toting her lightest impost to date; watch out suckahs !

 

Race  2

1.Madera

2.Stonezapper 

3.Jara

#7 MADERA has been on the shelf since being snagged for 40 large back in December, and gelding ( who has yet to miss the money ) has been a popular item at the claim box, having been purchased in all three starts to date, and the last time this one was in action, the two who finished directly in front of her got their photos taken next time out, improving in the speed figure department by an average of four points. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, Rudy Rod is 11:5-2-0 with locally based mid level dirt stock who changed addresses 51-113 days ago & are 11-1 or undah ( $3 x 2, $6, $7 & $9 ). Dubb doesn't care one iota about losing a couple of fazools, so he drops this one in class for the comebacker. #2 STONEZAPPER hasn't been seen in more than the full length of a calendar, but has never been off the board and pre-layoff pilot returns -- something we always see as a positive. #5 JARA is confidently moved up the ladder despite being out of prison since changing confditioners, and can grab a slice.   NOTE: AS OF 10:29, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 3 & 1A WILL BE OIUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  3

1.The Caretaker

2.Manifest Destiny

3.Kosciuszko

#7 THE CARETAKER was positively awful in the January 21st event, and as a matter of fact, the claim that was put in for him that afternoon was voided afterwards. Seven year old "horse" ( You "take care" of those marbles, buddy boy ! ) has performed the obligatory workout for the state vet, so apparently all is okay for a runner who was a part of the super in 14 starts prior to that. There's no scary drop, and we'll give this one a chance to rebound. #1A MANIFEST DESTINY disappointed at 5-2 in the most recent, so perhaps this one needs a bit of Tzeonn Chang in the irons ( if only ! ). Bobby Klesaris sees fit to double his one in price despite being out of jail after ending up in a different shedrow at the end of January, and he's a sharpie, so that's good enough for us to include. #6 KOSCIUSZKO fared well in his recent voyage at 10-1 when finishing 3rd, and that seems like a reasonable spot to put him once again.  NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-3-2.

 

Race  4 

1.Tonilee

2.Tremayne

3.Bella Bay

#7 TONILEE was eased in her sole start on the brown stuff up at The Spa back in August, but got smacked around a bit that day, and as she disappeared for three months afterwards, perhaps we can draw a line through that, no? In a nutshell, this one's turf pedigree is slightly weaker than that over the main, and as the Beyers for the verde aren't ( for this grouping ) half bad, who's to say they can't be switched over to the sandy stuff ?  Recognize that this one's a half to a runner who went 5:1-1-0 going on a fast surface, and as Harkie is awful, you MUST demand value. #2 TREMAYNE broke some hearts on Saint Valentine's Day, but rates a chance if able to get back to the penultimate try. #5 BELLA BAY has shown zippo in the mornings for today's overture, but is a half to six dirt winners from eight runners to date ( four of them mutiple winners ), and is one of the last foals out of ill fated Effinex. 

 

Race  5

1.Advance Notice

2.Parade Field

3.Blood Moon

#1X ADVANCE NOTICE looms a solid favorite in this spot based on the five exacta placings from seven starts thus far, and although this one is a bit of a nibblah, the overall collection of speed figures is simply too tough to ignore, and note that this one has fared well when breaking from "outsidish" posts. #2 PARADE FIELD had a ghoulish trip 25 days in the rear ( "inside...pinned...3-4 wide..altered two times...NURSE !!" ), and new bossman obviously sees that this one is much better than the running line belies, so he protects him in today's starter allowance. Big shot. #3 BLOOD MOON has partaken in the triple in five of nine at today's distance of ground and may be in the mix late in the game.  NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race  6 

1.Deep Sea

2.Ekhtibaar

3.Attentive

We don't have the best of feels on this heat, so tread lightly.  #1 DEEP SEA has that type of "declining" mark that we like to see ( 40:11-8-2 ), and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today while owning a nice record in Ozone Park. Nine year old closer will have all the time in the world to work out a good trip from today's inside draw. #7 EKHTIBAAR has a tidy 5:2-1-0-2 ledger when going from 1X to 2X on the dirt, and could jazz things up a bit here. #5 ATTENTIVE rounds out the top three.   NOTE: AS OF 11:13 A.M. THURSDAY, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-7-1.

 

Race  7

1.Irish Constitution

2.Chasing Cara

3.Bustinmygroove

#3 IRISH CONSTITUTION is a neck shy of a perfect two fer two mark on a track labeled "FST" ( outside of Graded Stakes company ), and gets a major upgrade from single digit Luzzi to Morales in this spot, and is now the recipient of the "Wonder Drug" for the first time. Will need to hustle early. #2B CHASING CARA is a $20,000 homebred who has earned that amount back and then some for Mitch, and sheds a whopping seven lb.'s ( we're jealous ) while getting juice for the 2nd time. Not hopeless for this one. #4 BUSTINMYGROOVE is a New York Bred filly who just ran second versus open foes...AND against the boys. That's nothing to sneeze at, and how do you chunk out a runner who hasn't missed the triple in five straight starts ?  NOTE: AS OF 11:17 A.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUT TOP TWO CHOICES.  NOTE: AS OF 10:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Full of Fire

2.She's an Alpha

3.Vive La Liberty

#6 FULL OF FIRE has only bested four in three calls to the post, but we're assuaged by the fact that Noda is a tight 4:3-1-0 with "second off the claim/second off the respite" dirt equines off absences of less than 40 days ( $7 & $6 x 2 ), and Manny Man gets the call. #7 SHE'S AN ALPHA has eye cups added and retains Carmouche, despite the recent flopola at 3-2. Somewhat intriguing, if you can come up with an excuse for the last. #5 VIVE LA LIBERTY has worked well since the most current disappointment and is as bad as any for the show baccala. 

  

Aqueduct        ( Current ):    75-378     ( $923.40 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-12( 42.5% ) Favorites  Win %:   131-378  ( 34.7% ) ( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ):   0-5           ( $0.00 )    Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites  Win %:     1-5       ( 20.0% )


Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 ) Beatable Favorites    1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 ) Beatable Favorites    0-1   (  0% )     Favorites Win %:    17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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