Today is our 15,000th race analysis with Saratoga Bets/Batavia Bets/Yonkers Raceway/& Capital OTB (Approximately 2.13 million words written !), having NEVER taken a day off. From our first winner on our first day ( Daddy's Kid -- of course ) to now, it's been one hell of a ride. Obviously, we'd be nothing without you -- the bettors & readers -- and always enjoy interacting with y'all on various forms of social media. We have always striven to do things a bit differently than other public handicappers ( while keeping things interesting by adding in some "No BS" content, as well as the occasional movie quote ! ), and endeavor to keep doing such for some time to come ( while continuing to beat the takeout ). Two major components of our column has been transparency ( as we have ALWAYS posted our stats, not just for this meet or last -- but for ALL the years ), as you deserve to know who you're entrusting your time with, and having created the ( ALWAYS the original ) "Beatable Favorites" category, which has beaten the grain by a substantial margin since it's inception -- saving you all some baccala along the way. So once again, thank you kindly, and now, let's crush these two Grade One's...for Bijou.

Just a reminder for today's complete Aqueduct selections & analysis merely go back one page.

Profitable three bagger yesterday ( including a $38 winner and a $117 Ice Cold Double ) as we pad our flat bet profit for the meet ( until at least March 14th ), and now have a flat bet profit for the last 859 races goung back half a year ( to Labor Day weekend ), with $6 to spare.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Graded Stakes - 3/6 - Santa Anita - Santa Anita Handicap & Kilroe Mile


Race 9 

1.Flying Scotsman

2.Royal Ship ( Brz )

3.Count Again

#10 FLYING SCOTSMAN lit up the tote board when going coast to coast like butter and toast across the country three weeks in the rear, and although that was against optional foes, the figure earned that day is comparable to all signed on today. Tyler hasn't been himself for more than a year, but he's still one of the best "send" riders around, and recognize that this one ( beneath another Tyler ) found the line firstin his lone Arcadian effort ( from the outside, no less ). #4 ROYAL SHIP (BRZ) has been gelded since last seen & completed the tri behind two next out winnahs in his sole start off the bench. #8 COUNT AGAIN was eased at even money in the San Gabriel, but six year old has worked very well since, and 12-1 could be a gift if able to get back to the prnultimate effort.  OFF TURF: 1-4-2-9-10


     Race 10

1.Coastal Defense

2.King Guillermo


We took a shot on #4 COASTAL DEFENSE in the Pegasus, but it didn't quite work out that day, as he merely bested half the field at 19-1. Blinkers are now a part of the equation ( along with Johnny V. ), and we're not quite sure if the pilot can make 116, but if he can, that's what this one will be toting. Expecting a rebound. #8 KING GUILLERMO has been positively ghastly in the two tries after an extended absence, but those were on wet surfaces, and this one owns a win & a placing from as many starts going over a glib surface. #7 TIZAMAGICIAN will be on the choo choo early & can land a share.  


Aqueduct        ( Current ):    69-360     ( $796.00 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-12( 42.5% ) Favorites  Win %:   123-360  ( 34.2% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ):   0-4           ( $0.00 )    Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites  Win %:     1-4       ( 25.0% )

Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 )  Beatable   Favorites    1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %:     56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 )  Beatable Favorites      0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout