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What a way to celebrate our 15,000th race here yesterday, as we got home the $96 winner by a nostril ( thank you, Bijou ), to go along with two other winners of $10 each as well.

Many thanks to those who "paid it forward" to various charities with their winnings, and to all who entered yesterday's contest here also.

We have now, for the first time ever, guaranteed ourselves a flat bet profit for the meet -- with 3+ weeks remaining -- aided by that third highest winner we've ever had. Additionally, we have now ( once again, for the first time ), have a flat bet profit for three consecutive meets -- Aqueduct Fall, our yearly Graded Stakes Analysis, and Aqueduct Winter. As the late, great Billy Mays said, "But wait -- there's more!", as we now have a positive R.O.I. for our last 869 races ( going back half'a year to Labor Day Weekend ). Being we have $101 "wiggle room" in that regards, the number is guaranteed to get to at least 919 races. 

Let's keep it going today !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/7

 

Race  1

1.Qualifying Offer

2.Mia Calia

3.Vienna Code

#2 QUALIFYING OFFER was an honest enough third place finisher when starting things out right here in the middle of January, but as that race was in the goo, AND this one is substantially better bred for a glib surface, we're expecting an improved effort this afternoon. Jockey/Trainer combo have done fine work at the stand, and there ain't no world beaters signed on. Her race to lose. #4 MIA CALIA has been a part of the superfecta in her last troika ( significant for an Edmund Pringle runner ) and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon ( also significant ); can grind out a share. #6 VIENNA CODE could perk up with today's addition of blinkers. 

 

Race  2

1.Mani Pedi

2.Sweet Mia

3.Anydayisherday

These three and no more for all our rolling action...  #4 MANI PEDI has hit the board in three of four ( which includes a win over the strip ), and has proven to be a decent claim by Randi. This one should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there. #2 SWEET MIA finds herself at her lowest level to date and has a lot of early zip, but four year old has lost ground in the lane in her last six defeats, so we're getting some mixed signals here. #5 ANYDAYISHERDAY has never seen these depths before, and her best work has come right here in Ozone Park. Demand value for low percentage trainer and rider. 

 

Race  3

1.Dynamic One

2.Mutasallem

3.Gold Bear

#4 DYNAMIC ONE immolated some baccala when flattening out late in the game in finishing 4th down at Gulfstream on 1/23 as the stick favorite, but the figures from the last duet are solid in comparison to the rest of this grouping, and there's a solid DRF Formulator stat in play as well. Over the last 60 months, T.P. wipes the competition clean with maiden special weight dirt routers in the 36-50 day bracket at 6-1 or less, as he's a near perfect 6:5-1-0 in that regards. #6 MUTASALLEM was a bit tardy to the party when starting things out at G.P. a month ago, but ended up a decently clear 2nd at 9-1. Tomlinson figure tells us he may have outran his pedigree that day, so we'll leave beneath. #2 GOLD BEAR ( uncoupled entrymate to our top selection ) was as flat as a pancake first time out, but given the pedigree, we'll afford him another chance. 

 

Race  4 

1.Inscom

2.Creative Style

3.Ryan's Cat

#3 INSCOM was in the rear with the gear when returning off a 13 month hibernation, but six year old has never been entered this cheaply, and secures the meet's leading rider. From a tight survey, Atras is three of four with locally based, second off the L/O mid level dirt animals who missed the money 12-50 days back ( $3, $4 & $20 ). #1 CREATIVE STYLE takes the mandatory hike in class after the Feb. 15th purchase, but likes it here, and the pre-claim pilot returns ( something we always like ). #5 RYAN'S CAT has a lot of early hoof and runs sans the hood for the first time; not hopeless.  NOTE: AS OF 10:35, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.N

 

Race  5

1.Its All Relevant

2.Big Mountain

3.Creative Plan

#6 ITS ALL RELEVANT has been game in defeat in his last duet right here, but was a sensational "7 come 11" in this zip code prior to that, an is also two fer four in "true" 3rd off the layoff engagements. Deserving favorite. #4 BIG MOUNTAIN has been grisly in his last two trips to the track, and after being claimed off the recent clunker, Morley does the smart thing and slides this one down the latter after being kept in prison. Seeing Cancel stick around helps the case of those leaning this way, as well. #3 CREATIVE PLAN hasn't been in action since having his claim voided on National Amateurs Night, but has won both starts off the bench & is two of three at today's distance of ground.  NOTE: AS OF 10:39, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Sneakiness

2.Instinctive Rhythm 

3.Trash Talker

#1 SNEAKINESS merely split the field at 7 to 5 in the 2/5 heat where claimed from, but that was a saltier group that afternoon, but gelding has done nice work here and completed the exacta in his lone start when breaking from the innermost two slots. There's a nice trainer stat in play here, as Rudy Rod is a snazzy 5-12 with freshly purchased allowance dirt stock off this kind of break @ 12-1 or under ( $5, $2, $6, $8 & $15 ). #3 INSTINCTIVE RHYTHM can totally be forgiven the most recent ( "lunged at the start" ), and in doing such, what you're left with is an overall solid body of work, where he has essentially improved with each passing start. #4 TRASH TALKER has been in absentia for the full length of a calendar, but has never missed the $ in Queens, and has received the unkindest cut of all since last making it over to the frontside. 

 

Race  7

1.Lucky Move 

2.Espresso shot

3.Firenze Freedom 

#4 LUCKY MOVE is a check earning fool who has a 3:1-0-1 when cutting back from two turns to one ( on a fast track ), and is reuniting with Kendrick, under whose guidance she has amassed a 5:1-2-1-1 mark. Holding our nose a bit on the price here, however. #3 ESPRESSO SHOT is a $2,500 bred animal who has earned more than 400 large to date, so right off the bat, let's hear it for the little gal. Lightly raced 5YO has been freshened up a bit, but there's a bullet in the holster for today's comeback attempt, and bay gal has done okay off a break in the action. #1 FIRENZE FREEDOM has blinkers affixed for the first time and gets an excellent rail pilot in the irons.  NOTE: AS OF 10:43, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Black Irish 

2.Triple Americano

3.Me 'n Sap

#5 BLACK IRISH attempted to run sans jock last time out, but that ain't entirely legal, so they give it another crack today -- at a higher level, no less. Donk charge owns a decent body of work, and may be overlooked a bit, parimutually speaking. #2 TRIPLE AMERICANO hung up a fat figaro when beginning his working life a bit over three weeks in the rear, and the bloodlines tell us the result that day was likely not an aberration. Slides in seven slots and may trip out. #4 ME 'N SAP has some speed and may grab a slice of strawberry cheesecake. 

 

Aqueduct        ( Current ):    72-370     ( $910.90 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-12( 42.5% ) Favorites  Win %:   126-370  ( 34.1% ) ( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ):   0-5           ( $0.00 )    Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites  Win %:     1-5       ( 20.0% )


Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 )  Beatable   Favorites    1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %:     56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 )  Beatable Favorites      0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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