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Today marks our 15,000th race here, and for some info & thoughts on all of that, please go to Race 9.

Profitable three bagger yesterday ( including a $38 winner and a $117 Ice Cold Double ) as we pad our flat bet profit for the meet ( until at least March 14th ), and now have a flat bet profit for the last 859 races goung back half a year ( to Labor Day weekend ), with $6 to spare. 

Just a reminder that for selections & analysis of today's two Grade One races from Santa Anita, merely go back one page. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/6 - Our 15,000th Race

 

Race  1

1.Stormi Cat Lady

2.Destinationwnrscir

3.Quiet Type

The top two here should suffice for all the rolling action here.   #2 STORMI CAT LADY put forth a career best effort when having Lasix administered for the first time, and while a bounce is always possible off that effort, we like the switch from an apprentice to a hot journeyman this afternoon. Additionally, from a miniscule survey, Schosberg has won with both of his maiden special weight dirt starters who crashed the fiesta less than 44 days ago that are beneath the 8-1 watermark ( $5 & $6 ). #3 DESTINATIONWNRSCIR has put forth three solid efforts in as many calls to the post, and rates as the mainger danger to the above. #6 QUIET TYPE has partaken in the super in her last two outings & draws well.

 

Race  2

1.Mebs Web

2.Mama Kin

3.Gagliano

#5 MEBS WEB is a nibbler by nature ( 17:1-3-3 ), but is specifically better at this distance ( 4:1-1-0 ), and recognize that four returnees from the most recent have come back to amass a cumulative 4:1-0-1 record ( from two different races ) with a negligible Beyer change amongst the quartet. Slight edge. #4 MAMA KIN was eased last time out, but we've made some money with this type in the past, and gal finds herself at her lowest level to date while leaving the eye cups back in the barn. Eligible to rebound. #1 GAGLIANO lost by just a nose in the lone "3rd off the L/O" try, and is as good as any for the show dough. 

 

Race  3

1.Diddley

2.San Juan Diego

3.Professor Snape

#3 DIDDLEY has had a couple of difficult sojourns of late, but seven year old has found the line first the last three times he had clean trips, and it's encouraging to see Trevor stick around despite having had little success with this clan. #2 SAN JUAN DIEGO drops a bit in class today & gets an upgrade in the jockey department as well. #4 PROFESSOR SNAPE more than outran his odds when rallying for third right here a fortnight back, and deserves to be left in the mix despite the trainer's awful statistics. 

 

Race  4 

1.Kaz's Beach

2.Finacial Stability

3.Future Book

#1 KAZ'S BEACH overcame some traffic trouble to secure 20% of the pot in this race a month ago, and this one may fair even better this afternoon with a tidier trek and a glib surface; no worse than second for all you show punters out there. #5 FINANCIAL STABILITY will be the only one we'll utilize as a saver for the above, and we're doing such based on this one being protected against the claim after being recently purchased, his six successive ITM finishes from as many trips to the track, and a sharp 6:2-1-2 record at today's distance of ground. #6 FUTURE BOOK hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but has been gelded since last in action and is 4:1-0-1 on a local fast strip. 

 

Race  5

1.Simbasalltrouble

2.Bedazzling

3.Another Shot

#4 SIMBASALLTROUBLE is a steady if unspectacular sort who gets a major upgrade in the doctor appointment in this spot and rates a tepid nod in this weak allotment. #2 BEDAZZLING duked it out down & on the inside in this spot a bakers' dozen days ago, but has hit the board in his last two outings on a fast track, and draws the pine while playing "flip flop" in the pilot dept. w/the above; may offer some decent value, here. #3 ANOTHER SHOT rebounded after having his claim voided in the prior deal, and we see no reason another solid effort isn't well within reach.

 

Race  6 

1.Laobanandaprayer

2.Make Mischief

3.Search Results

First stakes race of the card is named after the Hall of Famer, Busher, and for some history on said equine ( considered to be one of the best fillies of all time ) feel free to peruse this site https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busher_(horse) .  As for the race itself, we see it as a wide open affair, but will lean towards #2 LAOBANANDAPRAYER. Philadelphia based New York bred may be a touch light from a speed figure perspective, and not only has this one been a part of the action in each & every trip to the frontside, but she's steadily improved in the Beyer speed figure dept. on a fast track, so who really knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Gal sheds four pounds, slides in two slots, and just may sit the perfect trip. #6 MAKE MISCHIEF is another Empire State foal who happens to be shooting for the hat trick, and as this one has fared decently versus open foes, we see it as definitely doable. #3 SEARCH RESULTS was visually impressive when winning at first asking down at Hallandale Beach in early January, and the 379 Tomlinson figure tells us that the result was likely not an aberration. 

 

Race  7

1.Chateau

2.Share the Ride

3.Wendell Fong

#3 CHATEAU jumps into the deep end of the pool for the first time, but offspring of Flat Out is flat out fast, is 8:4-2-2 at The Big A, and is backed by a DRF Formulator statistic, as Atras has a 5:3-1-0 mark with dirt sprinters who won 44-50 days back & are < 12-1 ( $10, $3 & $4 ). #2 SHARE THE RIDE comes in today off a sharp win in the General George ( named after the GREAT George Washington ), and it's difficult to look past a runner who's been 1-2-3 in his last octet. #6 WENDELL FONG is 4 of 9 at this trip ( in comparison to being 0-4 @ other distances of ground ), and may roll late for a share. 

 

Race  8 

1.Needs Supervision

2.Gone Glimmering

3.Landing Zone

#6 NEEDS SUPERVISON closed out the superfecta at 35-1 in the Barbara Fritchie, and to illustrate the importance of today's class drop, is her stellar 10:4-4-2 boxscore when being kept out of the maiden ranks. Legit shot at a legit price. #1 GONE GLIMMERING essentially went all the way in her first start off the claim, bringing this win machine's Ozone Park mark to two for three. Filly seems to dig the inside as well, as she's rung up a 6:3-1-1-1 record when breaking from the innermost two slots, and rates a shot in a heat with just two first draft eliminations. #3 LANDING ZONE rarely throws in a clunker & is 3:1-1-1 when cutting back from two turns to one. 

 

Race  9 

1.Weyburn

2.The Reds

3.Wipe the Slate

This year's rendition of the Gotham isn't just the featured event of the day, but it's also our 15,000th race analysis with Saratoga Bets/Batavia Bets/Yonkers Raceway/& Capital OTB (Approximately 2.13 million words written !), having NEVER taken a day off. From our first winner on our first day ( Daddy's Kid -- of course ) to now, it's been one hell of a ride. Obviously, we'd be nothing without you -- the bettors & readers -- and always enjoy interacting with y'all on various forms of social media. We have always striven to do things a bit differently than other public handicappers ( while keeping things interesting by adding in some "No BS" content, as well as the occasional movie quote ! ), and endeavor to keep doing such for some time to come ( while continuing to beat the takeout ). Two major components of our column has been transparency ( as we have ALWAYS posted our stats, not just for this meet or last -- but for ALL the years ), as you deserve to know who you're entrusting your time with, and having created the ( ALWAYS the original ) "Beatable Favorites" category, which has beaten the grain by a substantial margin since it's inception -- saving you all some baccala along the way. So once again, thank you kindly, and now, let's crush this Derby prep...for Bijou. 

Well, apparently we'll be sinking or swimming with Trevor McCarthy this afternoon, as I believe we've landed on him a total of four times. That being said, #8 WEYBURN may appear to be a bit overmatched from a numbers perspective, but let's delve into that a bit, shall we? Well bred colt posted a career best # of 76 last November, but we've adjusted that to an 82.7. Still light, you say? Well, that came over a wet track, and as we consider this one to be about 4.7% better bred for a dry surface, that figure can once again get adjusted to about an 86.6 . While that's not a spectacular number, the 379 Tommy says to us that this one may eventually do even better at some point in time. Colt has been working well for the comebacker, and we'll take a shot. #2 THE REDS sheds 64 ounces off a tally ( something we always dig ) and could sit a nice pocket trip. #4 WIPE THE SLATE loses the eye cups, gets an appreciable rider change, and cuts back from 2X to 1X.

 

Race  10

1.Quintarelli

2.Breithorn

3.Coolboy

Not really feeling the heat from today's finale, so tread lightly.  #3 QUINTARELLI displayed some life when finishing third last week, and 7% outfit is 2 for 9 with dirt platers who were ITM 1-10 days back at 40-1 or undah ( $5 & $19 ). Jock has come in with a bomber for Jimmy in the past. #9 BREITHORN finds himself at his lowest level to date, but leaves a race where six comebackers have gone 2-1-0 since, and while we'll be using, keep in mind that there was a voided claim with this fella last time out, so it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. #2 COOLBOY is another who prefers the fringes more than anything else, but closed out the tri when last in for today's price, and closes things out for us. 

 

Aqueduct        ( Current ):    69-360     ( $796.00 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-12( 42.5% ) Favorites  Win %:   123-360  ( 34.2% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ):   0-4           ( $0.00 )    Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites  Win %:     1-4       ( 25.0% ) 


Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 ) Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Belmont              ( Final ):     42-267     ( $370.40 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-16  ( 6.3% )   Favorites Win %      90-267   ( 33.2% )  

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 )  Beatable Favorites    0-1   (  0% )        Favorites Win %:    17-53   ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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Enter your full name, and one (1) selection to WIN from Race 9 (3/6 at Aqueduct) for a chance to win one (1) TourneyBETS polo shirt, while supplies last. Participants must have a valid account to qualify for prizes in the TourneyBETS polo shirt giveaway - do not include your account number in your selection post below. Multiple entries by players is grounds for disqualification. WIN selection must be in by 2pm Saturday (3/6).