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Quiet Sunday for us, but we still maintain our flat bet profit for the meet. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/5

 

Race  1

1.My Brother Neil

2.Rumdum Byda Sea

3.Full Moon Fever

We start out the truncated week here with three solid sets of DRF Formulator statistics, so let's get to 'em directly...  #3 MY BROTHER NEIL: John Toscano ( 11% on the norm ) is a tight 5:3-0-1 with maiden special weight dirt stock who crashed the fiesta 8-50 days back ( 6-1 or less ), w/ returns of $13, $8 & $4. #1 RUMDUM BYDA SEA: Pat Kelly ( just 7% day to day ) more than quintuples that rate ( 8:3-1-1-1 ) with locally based runners of this ilk off the same layoff as the above ( 40-1 or beneath ), and the payouts for that survey were $8, $5 & $65. #5 FULL MOON FEVER: 13% Dutrow just about doubles his regular batting average ( 6-24 ) with mdspwt. dirt dashers who were 1-2-3 less than 51 days back @ 8-1 or beneath ( $11, $3 x 2, $7, $17 & $9 ).  NOTE: AS OF 11:08, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.King of American

2.Curlin's Knight

3.Bulwark

#7 KING OF AMERICAN hasn't done much to get the pulse racing over the last duet, but we like to go back three races to find something positive ( & a solid price as well ), and the January 22nd effort was solid enough ( when finishing second in this race at 30-1 ). Price play in a forgettable affair. #1A CURLIN'S KNIGHT has closed out the exacta in five of his last eight trips to the track, and note that the runner who finished directly behind this one in the most recent got his photograph taken next time out, improving in the Beyer department by approximately 50%. Sensible inclusion, but the 36:1-2-5 mark has us leaving this one underneath. #5 BULWARK as hum drum as any for the show spot. 

 

Race  3

1.Inside Info

2.Money in the Bank

3.Mission Wrapitup

#3 INSIDE INFO hasn't seen the seen in five months, but Linda Rice ( who is STILL awaiting adjudication on her case with the state ) runner got the job done in his only attempt off an elongated absence, and is two for two when available for purchase. Small trainer stat in play here, as aforementioned shotcaller is 5:2-2-0-1 with Aqueduct based mid level dirt stock ridden by Cancel, off breaks of 51-231 days. #6 MONEY IN THE BANK has partaken in the exacta in four straight, is 3:1-2-0 right here, and both wins have come beneath today's pilot; logical. #4 MISSION WRAPITUP has hit the board in both starts at this level, and hot McCarthy sticks around. NOTE: AS OF 11:12, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Lorenzen

2.Mr. Ghost

3.Loaded Joe

Only one first draft elimination here, so tread lightly.  #1 LORENZEN is slowwwwwwwly approaching professional maiden territory, but gelding's best work has come underneath today's jockey ( two third place finishes ), and we'll give this one beneath a tepid nod. #2 MR GHOST showed little in the bow, but is halved in price this afternoon, and 408 Tomlinson figure for the distance tells us to give this one another chance. #5 LOADED JOE is a bit of an in and outer, but has some early zip and can cause a ruckus if able to catch a flyer.   NOTE: AS OF 2:57 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 11:16, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Spitball

2.Unrelenting Force

3.Dangerous Edge

#7 SPITBALL was a blase' 3rd in the first start off the claim, but is one for two when going over a glib surface and rates a slight edge. #3 UNRELENTING FORCE is a nibbler by rote ( 12:1-5-1 ), who comes in today off a solid ( albeit money burning ) effort versus similar a month back. #2 DANGEROUS EDGE has hit the board in both tries at today's dx., and note that hi lone win has come at today's distance of ground. 

 

Race  6 

1.Miss Mi Mi

2.Malibu Mischief

3.Flat Awesome Jenny

#2 MISS MI MI is a bit of a lightly raced six year old, but she shore is a game performer, as the 19 superfecta finishes from 25 career starts belies. Mare has been handed over to Miceli after the recent disappointment, and we like that there's no scary drop for a runner who's 3:1-0-1 when breaking from the pine; 7:3-1-2 mark in Ozone Park jumps off the page, and barn is 2-6 when getting handed a horsey who finished off the board < 51 days back right here ( $13 & $5 ). #7 MALIBU MISCHIEF has oodles of early hoof, and you don't have to twist our arm to incorporate a runner who's won 10 of 24 lifetime starts. #1 FLAT AWESOME JENNY was perfectly spotted when being one day out of jail, as this one got the job done right here -- where he's now two of three. 

 

Race  7

1.Violent Trick

2.Stand for the Flag

3.Maiden Beauty 

#1 VIOLENT TRICK was claimed for the fourth straight time when eligible for such ( and 5th of 7 overall ), and why not, as the sweet declining mark of 17:5-3-1 tells us this one knows where the line is. Chestnut gal has also done fine work at today's distance of ground ( 9:4-2-1 ), and is also 2:1-1-0 when first to load on the dirt. Recognize the fact that Maragh guided this one to a lively placing in their lone pairing. #5 STAND FOR THE FLAG gives it the ol' college try each and every time ( 10:2-4-2-1 ), but we'll leave beneath because of her hanging tendencies of late. #5 MAIDEN BEAUTY has won two of four, and that includes a tally the last time she had a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump. Gal has been in good dirt form for quite some time now. 

 

Race  8 

1.Love That Face

2.Wicked Breeze

3.Big Tony's Girl

These three should suffice for all our rolling action.  #2 LOVE THAT FACE was a gamely runner up in this race three weeks in the rear, and although there's a chance for a bounce off that second off the L/O try, we'd be remiss in excluding. #4 WICKED BREEZE merely split the field up at the Lakes at first asking, but has been given some time to sort things out, and has blinks added for the comebacker. #5 BIG TONY'S GIRL ( who should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there ) has hit the board in three of four and makes all kinds of sense. 

 

Aqueduct        ( Current ):    66-352     ( $748.20 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-12( 42.5% ) Favorites  Win %:   118-352  ( 33.6% ) ( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ):   0-3           ( $0.00 )    Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites  Win %:     1-3       ( 33.3% )


Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 )  Beatable   Favorites    1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %:     56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 )  Beatable Favorites      0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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