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One was the loneliest number for us on a washout of a day yesterday.   


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 2/28

 

Race  1

1.Iaintfraidofnoghost

2.Tekila

3.Coal Shaft

These three and no more for all our rolling action to start the day.  #2 IAINTFRAIDANOGHOST has been beset by layoff lines after two of her three trips to the track, but the last effort ( when receiving the wonder drug for the first time ) was her best to date, and while a bounce is always possible, we're thinking the light bulb has finally come on. #1 TEKILA showed some nice improvement from the first start to the second ( also, when getting Lasix ) when closing out the exacta right here at 6-1. It's worth noting that the two "sandwich horses" that afternoon, both got their photos taken next time out, improving in the Beyer dept. by 8 & 10 points respectively. #6 COAL SHAFT was a gamely runner up in this race 44 days back and makes all kinds of sense. 

 

Race  2

1.Quasar

2.Mind of Gold

3.Dial Me Up

#3 QUASAR gave up the ghost against conditional claimers last time out, and is confidently protected against a purchase by nice man Ribaudo this afternoon, and we like the move. Why? A few reasons. Firstly, this one is one for five over a local glib surface ( 0-14 otherwise ), secondly, exits a race where four returnees have gone 4:1-0-1-1 in three subsequent outings ( with an average BSF improvement of 4 points per ), and lastly, is a fat DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 60 months, the aforementioned 10% shotcaller is a jazzy 12:6-2-1-1 with dirt stock who hit the board 34-50 days back at 13-1 or less ( over the last four years ). The payoffs in that sampling were $7 x 2, $12, $3, $5 & $13 ), and we'll make this one our play of the day. #5 MIND OF GOLD returned off an elongated absence to get the job done in her first try at AQU, and drops 32 ounces off that effort -- something we always dig. #1 DIAL ME UP has yet to finish worse than 2nd on the sand and must be left in the mix. 

 

Race  3

1.Empty Tomb

2.Chestertown

3.Tenderfoot

#6 EMPTY TOMB is in good form these days, having hit the board in three straight, and additionally, this one has partaken in the triple in all three starts when breaking from the outermost two slots ( on a fast track ). Slight edge. #1 CHESTERTOWN has win two straight, three of four, is undefeated at this trip & over this strip, and finished second in her lone foray when first to load. What's not to like ? #2 TENDERFOOT had his three race win streak broken by Mr. Buff on the 23rd of January, and that is absolutely no disgrace. Lasix back in the mix today after that stakes effort, and we're expecting another solid effort.  NOTE: AS OF 12:36, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, #3 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Ajhar

2.My First Grammy

3.French Toast

Another race where this troika should suffice...  #6 AJHAR has a decent overall body of work ( having never been worse than 5th ), and takes the biggest drop in the game this afternoon, and the only other time that was attempted, this one "won" but was apparently DQ'd for some type of drug infraction afterwards. Trevor in good form these days, and this one should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there. #1 MY FIRST GRAMMY was a lively runner up in a near identical spot at the end of January, and while we'll incorporate, it's with an ounce of trepidation, as this one has failed to match his career best numero since getting trounced by Tiz the Law. #7 FRENCH TOAST overcame some trouble to secure third place money right outta the box, and the pedigree tells us the result was likely not an aberration. Of course, we dig the draw.  NOTE: AS OF 12:40, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Mrs. S

2.Sirenic

3.Invaluable

#3 MRS. S was extremely flat in the most recent, but they all can't be winners, kid, and this one has a couple of decent adjusted BSF's in the two tries prior to that, and we'll take a nibble at The Toddster at 10-1. #2 SIRENIC went coast to coast like butter and toast to best what we would consider to be a tougher allotment 20 days in the rear, and while a regression is always possible off a lifetime best fig, we'd be remiss in excluding. #7 INVALUABLE has done some excellent work since last August ( 6:3-3-0 ) and has been working well for the comebacker.  NOTE: AS OF 12:44, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-3-4.

 

Race  6 

1.Ajnadeen

2.Honorable Service

3.Topper T

#2 AJNADEEN is a fragile sort, as this seven year old "horse" ( you hang on to them dangling participles, buddy boy ! ) has faced the starter a mere ten times. The good news tho, is the 10:3-2-1-2 lifetime ledger, a 4:1-0-1-0 record off a break in the action, and an affinity for this trip. Yeah, we get it, the recent form is grisly, but in a race with but one first draft elimination, why not take a swing at a price? #7 HONORABLE SERVICE has proven to be another astute claim by Jimmy Ferraro ( the other being Letmetakethiscall ), as $8,000 snag has earned checks in all three starts at higher levels, and is doubled up in price once again today off the recent placing. #4 TOPPER T has been a part of the triple in 7 of 9 @ the dx., and is 3:1-0-2 in "true" second off the shelf scenarios.  NOTE: AS OF 12:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Letmetakethiscall

2.Wicked Trick

3.Mihos

#7 LETMETAKETHISCALL has been raking in the money since being plucked for 40 large a half'a year ago, as she's gone right through three different conditions for JWF, and looks to be poised to make it four this afternoon. Mare has a spectacular "declining" mark in Ozone Park ( 14:7-2-1 ) and is 3:1-1-1 when last to load. Race goes through this gal against the guys. #6 WICKED TRICK gets a jock upgrade today and was photogenic in her lone "2nd off a hiatus" deal on the sand. Interesting to see him entered above his condition. #1 MIHOS ( no, not "Miho" from 'Sin City' ) rounds out the top three. NOTE: AS OF 12:52, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Kiss'n Mission

2.Twisted Sunset

3.Awesome Yet Again

#1 KISS'N MISSION was in the back of the field when beginning his working life on the 8th of January, but posted a bullet after that, which likely came w/blinks ( now a part of the package ). Price play. #3 TWISTED SUNSET starts things out today, and although the worktab doesn't quite get the pulse racing, the 399 Tomlinson figure for today's distance is quite solid, and jockey/trainer combo fare well together. #5 AWESOME YET AGAIN was a daylight clear runner up at Grantville on February 10th, and sheds a whopping nine pounds for today's third start off the layoff.  NOTE: AS OF 12:56, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Aqueduct        ( Current ):    65-344     ( $740.60 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-12( 42.5% ) Favorites  Win %   115-344   ( 33.4% ) ( As of Sunday morning )


Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 ) Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 ) Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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