KevinCoxItem


Just a reminder that for today's full card Belmont selections & analysis, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Graded Stakes - 10/3 - Pimlico - Preakness Stakes

 

 Race 11

1.Mr. Big News

2.Thousand Words

3.Authentic

We have three solid sets of DRF Formulator statistics in play here, so let's get right to 'em !  #2 MR. BIG NEWS outran his expectations in a big way when completing the triple down in Louisville, and Calhoun is a crisp 6 for 10 with male graded dirt stayers at this level who hit the board 8-50 days back at 23-1 or less ( ridden by this jock ). The payoffs for that survey were $11, $, $7, $3 x 2, $4 & $47, and we wouldn't be surprised to see another solid effort. #5 THOUSAND WORDS was a well beaten but daylight clear runner up in his sole start off the bench, and Bob Baffert's Baked Beans has a healthy 14 for 27 record with male graded dirt routers off absences of 51-75 days @ 12-1 or undah ( $3.00 ROI ). #9 AUTHENTIC has improved with each passing start, miraculously re-breaking for that extra 1/8th of a mile in Kentucky that he seemingly wanted no part of at Monmouth. That being said, Lidocaine Bob has won with half of his 36 3YO male graded dirt stock going long, who tallied a win 6-50 days in the rear < 4-1 ( positive return on investment ).  

 
Belmont          ( Current ):     9-89       ( $101.00 )  Beatable    Favorites    0-5  ( 0% )       Favorites Win %      26-89    ( 29.2% )( As of Saturday morning )


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       7-34       ( $61.20 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-34   ( 35.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


  CoxLA2017