KevinCoxItem


Blamked here yesterday, but for those following our progress at the NHC Championships in Las Vegas -- we made the final day for the first time ever !! ( 10K minimum. ) We're sitting in 41st place, but there's a real logjam, so we hope to move up ! Thanks to all for your support.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 2/9

 

Race  1

1.Freudian Analyst

2.El Sangru

3.Talespin

Today's opener is one of many on the card where we were unable to eliminate two or less with our first draft, so exercise prudence this afternoon.  #6 FREUDIAN ANALYST  has only beaten home eight in as many recent starts, but Leo hands the lead line over to his son Keith here, and there's an apprentice to journeyman move in store today, which we always dig, and note that this one popped out on top in two of his last three, and in a field devoid of many front end types, maybe this one can catch a flyer? Longshot play. #5 EL SANGRU posted the lowest number in his career last time out, but there are several good running lines on the resume', and this one goes ( in theory ) one turn on a fast track for just the second time. Hungry jock takes the helm. #1 TALESPIN isn a steady if unspectacular sort who has done okay here and is as good as any for the 3rd place spot. NOTE: AS OF 12:04, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Fleet Warrior

2.Our Honor 

3.Bustin the Rules

#3 FLEET WARRIOR displayed decent early hoof on the goo last time out, and the wet track figure earned was his best to date. If you prorate that to his best fast track figaro, then the four year old gelding actually rates a punchers chance in here. Two fer nine ledger right here aids the cause a bit. #5 OUR HONOR got up by a honker in his only start when entered for this price & is 2-5 @ the trip. #2 BUSTIN THE RULES was an even 4th in his lone try off a break, but that was without blinkers, which are currently a part of the package. Chestnut chap totes the lightest impost of his career and always seems to give a good account of himself.

 

Race  3

1.Fair Lassie

2.Dovey Lovey

3.Dirty Bird

#2 FAIR LASSIE got her photograph taken the only two times she had a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump, and it's encouraging to see Franco return, despite the last two disappointments. Mild choice. #3 DOVEY LOVEY took an unnecessary hike in class for the first start off the claim by Ferraro, but the astute shotcaller must've known what he had in his barn, as a decent showing was the end result, despite a bit of trouble during the event. Sensible once again. #1 DIRTY BIRD has been ITM in 4 of 5 tries when breaking from the pine, and seems likely to accomplish that once again. 

 

Race  4 

1.What a Catch

2.San Juan Diego

3.Horoscope

#5 WHAT A CATCH hasn't shown much in the last duet, but we always go back three starts to find something positive ( as it aids in finding prices ) and the December 14th event was a whiz banger. It'll take a reversal of fortune for this one to get the job done today, but we'll nibble at 30-1. #3 SAN JUAN DIEGO was an honest enough 3rd in the first start off the claim about three weeks ago, and we see no legitimate reason another top three placing isn't within reach in this spot. #2 HOROSCOPE went pillar to post vs. cheaper on 1/24 and has done his best work at this trip.  NOTE: AS OF 12:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race  5

1.Bustin Shout

2.Vincento

3.Blugrascat's Smile

#3 BUSTIN SHOUT has been on a nifty 6:3-2-0 run since Barrow started calling the shots last July, and while the first five of those occurred when nicely spotted in Canandaigua County, the most recent of which came right here when having eye cups re-affixed. 12-1 seems purdy generous. #2 VINCENTO has been a popular item at the claim box of late, leaving forwarding addresses after ALL of his last quintet when available to be snagged. Seven year old is still showing why, as he nears the half million dollar mark, and positively adores the distance ( 18:5-0-3 ). #1 BLUGRASCAT'S SMILE was a well beaten but well clear runner up in front of a next out winner when facing slightly tougher last out, and owns a 5:1-1-1 mark when going from two turns to one. 

 

Race  6 

1.Brimstone

2.Eden Ridge

3.Sandy Lane

#2 BRIMSTONE was a lively runner up at this level a fortnight ago, and warhorse has done better at this dx. ( 18:5-4-1 ) than other distances ( 28:4-2-4 ). Toscano eschews the bug in favor of the vet ( an angle that we have always dug ), and we wouldn't be surprised to see another sharp effort. #5 EDEN RIDGE outran his odds a bit when closing out the exacta versus 8K foes a month ago and finished 3rd in his lone "2nd off the L/O" spin over a glib surface. #8 SANDY LANE rounds out the top three.

 

Race  7

1.Vorticity

2.His Name Is Sue

3.Piven

#3 VORTICITY is one for two here, two for six going this distance of ground, and has never been entered for this price. Slimmest of margins. #7 HIS NAME IS SUE was an honest enough third behind a repeat winner last out and owns a placing & a showing from as many second off the shelf forays. #1 PIVEN has been kept in jail since the mid December purchase by Casse, and won by four lengths the only time he transitioned from poly to dirt. Loving that Lasix is still kept out of the equation with this one. 

 

Race  8 

1.Out of Orbit

2.Espresso Shot

3.Held Accountable 

#3 OUT OF ORBIT is one of two speeds signed on and may forget to stop if able to catch a flyer on today's cutback. #5 ESPRESSO SHOT has some decent back class, is one of two after a layoff, two for three at this distance, and has eye cups added for the 1st time. #8 HELD ACCOUNTABLE closed out the tri in his only dirt start off a break & owns a 3:1-1-1 ledger going a mile.  NOTE: AS OF 12:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Big Cyn

2.Microgram

3.Desbordes

Gotta give Joey Martinez some credit for getting legged back aboard #8 BIG CYN after being dumped last time out, as many jockeys would split the scene after an event like that. That aside, bay gal had partaken in the superfecta in all three outings prior to the mishap, earning a decent numero in the Dec. 6th event. Blinks are added today, and they sure couldn't hurt. #11 MICROGRAN begins his working life today, and as the works haven't shown much, this $45,000 Saratoga auction purchase can be all yours for about half of that here. #7 DESBORDES drops a few pegs off a so-so 4th 20 days back, and in a bit of an anomaly, catches fast ground for today's 5th dirt start;may perk up. 

  


Aqueduct  ( Winter Meet ):      40-269     ( $354.10 )   Beatable  Favorites  3-10  ( 30.0% )     Favorites Win %:   113-269 ( 42.0% ) 


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-403  ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 138-403 (34.2%)  +/-: -31.6% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2444-11991 ($20,492.10) Beatable Favorites : 335-1204( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4575-12094 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.5%  against a 16.5% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2529-12560 ($21,311.30)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4738-12681 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.4% takeout


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