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Just a mess of a day for us here yesterday, as a chalky parade came through in the goo.

For those curious about our goings on at the NHC Championship in Vegas, we had a good showing in the "Last Chance/First Chance", finishing 34th of 425, giving us importnt Tour points. 

The bigs how starts today ! 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #2 Soul Fight  Race 7 - #8 Lucky Move


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Aqueduct - 2/7

 

Race  1

1.Scuttlebuzz

2.Kilmarknock

3.Dangerous Edge

#2 SCUTTLEBUZZ rallied resolutely to complete the triple at 36-1 first time out, running the last 2 1/2 furlongs in a decent 30.81 over a track which played extremely slow that day. Grey gelding went for more than 9X the stud fee at auction. and when you factor that in with the decent 352 Tomlinson, the showing was likely not an aberration. Expecting this one to be a bit closer to the pace today second time out, especially with a more compact field. #5 KILMARKNOCK showed tremendous improvement from the first start to the second, and Falcone thought enough of the effort to keep this one protected against the claim today. #3 DANGEROUS EDGE has been freshened up for a couple of months, and returns with blinks, which were probably affixed for the bullet gate move 20 days back. Dangerous if fully cranked up. 

 

Race  2

1.La Negrita

2.Cruising Strong

3.Be Magic

#1 LA NEGRITA put it all together when winning in a game performance last time out, and although the number came back a bit on the lowish side, filly posted an adjusted 64.6 three starts ago, and that would fit nicely here if able to get back to it. #3 CRUISING STRONG has improved w/each passing start, the most recent of which was at her highest level to date. Who knows where this one's ceiling is. #6 BE MAGIC won by a country mile last time out, procuring the sheepskin in the process, and is another who has ascended the Beyer ladder over a glib surface ( 38-40-49 ).

 

Race  3

1.Tipazo

2.Judiths Cougar

3.John Want Revenge

#6 TIPAZO has most definitely figured things out of late, having hit the board in four straight, increasing in the speed figure dept. along the way. Gelding has outran his odds in each, and Friedman ( who wins just 7% of the time ) is a jazzy 5:3-2-0 with locally based maiden claiming dirt dashers who crashed the party less than 40 days ago & are 5-1 or lower. The winners came back $9, $6 & $8, and of course, we love the draw. #5 JUDITHS COUGAR merely split the field in the most recent, but goes over the sand for just the 2nd time and can do better. #3 JOHN WANT REVENGE totes the lightest impost of his working life and may spice things up underneath. 

 

Race  4 

1.Stay Fond 

2.Zecha

3.Saratoga Style

These two and no more for all our rolling action. #6 STAY FOND essentially went coast to coast like butter and toast on New Year's Eve Eve, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. Despite having kept this one in jail, baby Englehart steps this one up in class, and ( from a minuscule sampling ) owns a 4:2-1-0 ledger with freshly purchased dirt runners at this level who scored 28-50 days back ( $8 x 2 ). Hat trick well within reach, especially given the 7 for 16 mark @ the trip ( 0-14 otherwise ). #5 ZECHA ( 2-11 at this locale...1-19 at other venues ) has improved over his last quartet, culminating with a lifetime best fig when finishing directly behind a next out winner. #4 SARATOGA STYLE as bad as any for the show dough. 

 

Race  5

1.Bad Guy

2.Chuckles

3.Awesome Adversary 

#1 BAD GUY was kept in prison by Rudy after the November 20th claim, but he must've liked what he had, as there was a confident class hike nearly six weeks later, and a solid ( & troubled ) showing was the end result that day at 15-1. Five year old has proven to be just a nibbler throughout his working career ( 34:1-6-11 ), but we like that DRF Formulator has this barn at a whopping 7 for 12 with the following: Aqueduct 2nd off the claim dirt runners at this level who were 1-2-3 26 to 50 days back ( 9-1 or undah ). The mutuels for that sampling were $3, $4, $5, $6, $9, $8 & $11, and we'll give this one a slight edge. #3 CHUCKLES may wake up w/the eye cup addition. #4 AWESOME ADVERSARY will be led over by a 7% shotcaller who more than quadruples that batting average with mid level dirt sprinters who were ITM 16-50 days ago & are 20-1 or < ( $19, $7, $9, $11 & $13 x 2 ).  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 SOUL FIGHT

 

Race  6 

1.Bankruptonthebeach

2.Autonomous

3.Leaveuwithasmile

#5 BANKRUPTONTHEBEACH has been MIA since the maiden breaking debut at the Shore last July, but barn knows how to have 'em prepped for comebacks, and we'll give this one a tepid nod. #4 AUTONOMOUS has hit the board in all three starts to date, and accomplished such at three different class levels, over two different strips ( with the repeat venue coming over a fast & wet surface ). We like that kind of versatility, but will be leaving beneath because of her money burning ways recently. #3 LEAVEUWITHASMILE is 3 for 4 in all outings when getting away cleanly, so Junior will have to have this one prepared at the onset.

 

Race  7

1.The Great Johanna

2.Am Impazible

3.Mary's Girl

Jimmy Ferraro has done a fantastic job with the #3 THE GREAT JOHANNA. After showing some promise as a three year old, she flipped in the paddock at Saratoga that summer, doing a nice little number on her back. Old school trainer took his time bringing her back to the races, and it has most assuredly paid off, as aside from a poor ride in the return, this miss has gone 7:3-1-3 in '19 & '20, banking more than 140 large in the process. Not quite understanding how they came up with a one point reduction in the Beyer department for the recent score, as the time was 1.68 seconds faster over a track just as deep as the prior outing, and she did it with ease, but whatever, man. Slimmest of margins in an extremely competitive event. #7 AM IMPAZIBLE has gotten better and better in going back to back & deserves respect here. #6 MARY'S GIRL tries hard every single time, and don't hold it against her for being a nibblah, as in EIGHT of her ten placings, she ran BETTER than her odds. Best work has come right here ( 5:2-1-0 over a fast track ) and would be no surprise if she triples her auction price in the earnings department this afternoon.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 LUCKY MOVE

 

Race  8 

1.No Distortion 

2.Hawaiian Noises

3.Preamble

#7 NO DISTORTION has only beaten two home in his last troika, but in all fairness, two of those were stakes, and he won in a near identical spot just prior to that. This one may be a bit of an overlay. #2 HAWAIIAN NOISES drops down 10K after besting slightly tougher and digs the trip & strip; logical. #1 PREAMBLE has never been entered this cheaply in 3rd off the break here. 

 


Aqueduct  ( Winter Meet ):      40-260     ( $354.10 )   Beatable  Favorites  3-10  ( 30.0% )     Favorites Win %:   110-260 ( 42.3% ) (As of Friday morning)


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-403  ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 138-403 (34.2%)  +/-: -31.6% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2444-11991 ($20,492.10) Beatable Favorites : 335-1204( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4575-12094 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.5%  against a 16.5% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2529-12560 ($21,311.30)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4738-12681 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.4% takeout


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