KevinCoxItem


Quack quack quack !! We went on the duck yesterday, which was somewhat understandable, given our solid week last week. Regardless, we are still riding a streak of 168 for 807 -- $1,614 Bet & $1,625 Returned ( going back five months ) ! 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 1/31

 

Race  1

1.Sassy Secret

2.Shannon's Girl

3.Flying Pleasantly

#1 SASSY SECRET showed a touch of improved speed when having Lasix administered last time out when a zillion to one, and while this one will be boxcars once again, we're hoping that this one'll be able to catch a fast track for the first time and catch a flyer. Meeeeeeeeekest of selections in an awful opener. #4 SHANNON'S GIRL beat home only one when having front wraps added in the most recent, and while you may be remiss in excluding because of the overall resume', it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. #3 FLYING PLEASANTLY was recently given her first layoff in 27 starts, and may return feeling invigorated. 

 

Race  2

1.Women Not Easy

2.Maru

3.Racing my Father 

Just like yesterday's nitecap, Rudy has two signed on, and we won't be going any deeper than them for all our rolling action. #6 WOMEN NOT EASY hasn't faced the starter in quite some time, but the adjusted figaro from the career starter of 52.3 ( against substantially better ) fits with these, and the top two from that day came back to win -- including a Grade three on the European sod. $130,000 auction purchase is in for 1/3rd of that, so you know they'll be trying. #4 MARU ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) should be no worse than second here for all you place punters, and we base that on the two pound drop off a gritty showing, the speed, and the collection of Beyer figures. #1 RACING MY FATHER showed zilch first time out, but 405 Tommy tells us to accord this one a chance over a glib surface. 

 

Race  3

1.Cobra Sophie

2.Keep Your Distance

3.Nowitna River

#5 COBRA SOPHIE displayed absolutely nothing when being claimed for cheaper eight days ago, but grey mare had posted some decent efforts just before that and new shotcaller has has some success in improving fresh purchases. Another timid selection in an unhuggable heat. #3 KEEP YOUR DISTANCE has been alternating losses and wins since July 12th ( seven starts ), so today should be a score, right? If only the game was that simple. Grey gal goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today, and it's difficult to ignore that 43:14-6-5 lifetime mark. #7 NOWITNA RIVER is 4 for 6 when breaking from the outermost two posts, compared to owning a 4-15 record otherwise, so right off the bat, we're digging her prospects. Factor in an affinity for the trip and a slight drop in class, and we'll give her a shot.  NOTE: AS OF 11:45, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Mystic Moves

2.Saffron Girl

3.My My Michelle

#7 MYSTIC MOVES hasn't shown much in the mornings, but this $40,000 bred animal went for nearly 4X that amount at Saratoga a year and a half ago, gets New York's year end rider in the irons, boasts a nice 377 Tomlinson # for the dx., and is a half to Wegetsdamunnys, who is 3 fer 6 in dirt sprints and has banked more than 211G lifetime. Will have to be a goodie to overcome Nevin's oh-fer-39 run. #2 SAFFRON GIRL split the field in the maiden claiming ranks first time out and is protected against purchase today. 23% Rice more than doubles that batting average with locally based second time starters who missed the baccala 12-50 days back, and has a positive ROI in that area. #1 MY MY MICHELLE ( second part of an uncoupled entry w/ our top choice ) has hit the board in both starts to date & is backed by a 7:3-2-0 trainer stat which has this barn at just that with runners of this ilk whi=o were 1-2-3 30 to 50 days back & are 8-1 or < ( $12 & $4 x 2 ). 

 

Race  5

1.Business Cycle 

2.Poshsky 

3.Captain Frost

#7 BUSINESS CYCLE let a lot of people down when finishing 5th @ 9/5 in a similar situation 48 days back, but that's just one of two clunkers this one has ever produced in his 12 race career, and while we'll give this one another chance for new conditioner Gullo, you better demand value. Ten year old #5 POSHSKY makes his 72nd start today, and sure has danced a lot of dances, having won a G3 way back in 2015. Not hopeless. #8 CAPTAIN FROST won this race in the easiest kind of fashion back on the 9th, and it's hard to ignore that tally as well as the 3 fer 6 boxscore in Queens.  NOTE: AS OF 11:46, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Beach Access

2.Shock Therapy

3.Big Thicket 

#3 BEACH ACCESS hasn't shown much in the last two, but we always go back three starts to find something positive, and the November 15th effort was extremely sharp. Gelding has done his best work at the trip and we feel is worth a shot at a decent price. #1 SHOCK THERAPY was given his first layoff ever around Thanksgiving, and the most recent of the workouts ( 2nd best of 23 ) signal readiness for today's comebacker. FWIW, four year old is 5:1-0-2-2 when starting from the rail, and 8:1-0-3-1 otherwise, so expecting a nice trip beneath Cancel. #8 BIG THICKET was a non factor in the first start off the claim, but had been a part of the super in seven straight prior to that, and 7% Ferraro is on a nice run of 22:5-2-4-3 with those having a realistic chance of winning ( 30-1 or less ). 

 

Race  7

1.Musical America

2.Sir Winston

3.Roaming Union

#5 MUSICAL AMERICA is 1 for 1 here, 2 for 2 at the trip, and Atras is 3 for 3 with Ozone Park optional dirt stock who won their most recent outing ( $8, $9 & $32 ). Hat trick well within reach. #2 SIR WINSTON was scratched the other day when the track came up wet, and you can essentially draw a line through the turf comebacker down in the Bayou. From a small survey, Casse has a 2 fer 5 ledger when going green to brown & 2X to 1X with optional dirt stock who were off the board 18-50 days back ( $6 & $7 ). #3 ROAMING UNION has a 3:0-1-2 mark when cutting back and is second off the shelf this afternoon.

 

Race  8 

1.Justice of War 

2.Informed Consent

3.Sneads

#6 JUSTICE OF WAR has been befallen by back to back layoff lines ( the most recent of which occurring a half'a calendar ago ), but we're soothed by the fact that this barn has gotten the job done with 1/2 of their dozen maiden claiming dirt starters who were snagged 51-331 days ago ( $3.26 R.O.I. ), w/a sub category of 3-4 over this oval. #1 INFORMED CONSENT ( second part of an uncoupled entry with the above ) is another one who changed addresses after the last, and the figure posted from the bow ( as well as the 393 Tomlinson figure for the dx. ) gives us enough reason to include. #7 SNEADS owns the finest overall body of work in the field, but as bandages were added on 12/29, you might wanna take a look pre-race.  NOTE: AS OF 11:48, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #'S 5 & 8 WILL BE OUR 2ND & 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

   


Aqueduct  ( Winter Meet ):      40-227     ( $354.10 )   Beatable  Favorites  2-8   ( 25.0% )     Favorites Win %:   95-227 ( 41.8% ) (As of Friday morning)


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-403  ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 138-403 (34.2%)  +/-: -31.6% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2444-11991 ($20,492.10) Beatable Favorites : 335-1204( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4575-12094 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.5%  against a 16.5% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2529-12560 ($21,311.30)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4738-12681 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.4% takeout


coxbel2019