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We completed a profitable week on Sunday, as we are currently riding a streak of 168 for 799 -- $1,598 Bet & $1,625 Returned ( going back five months ) ! We also got home an ice cold exacta for $23, and three rolling doubles of $237, $46 & $47.

We'd like to thank everyone for their well wishes this weekend, as we won our THIRD handicapping tournament in 25 days -- this one the Monmouth Park Handicapping Challenge. The win gives us a seat for the 2021 tournament ( our 13th overall ), as we've now qualified in all eight years we've been trying. 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None  NOTE: AS OF 12:29, THE #2 IN RACE 8 WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE.


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 1/30

 

Race  1

1.Da Berg

2.Plebe

3.Ridolfo

#2 DA BERG came along decently to lose by less than five last time out, and sheds a whopping ten pounds off that effort. Stock goes up if they're running on a fast track today, as that's where his best numbers have been. #4 PLEBE gave a sharp showing against open foes 20 days back and must be kept in the mix off that effort. #6 RIDOLFO is pretty much a professional maiden these days, but posted an adjusted 60.1 in the lone attempt breaking from the outside on the dirt ( vs. tougher ) when completing the superfecta at 42-1. Improvement in the apprentice department today. 

 

Race  2

1.Wild Weekend

2.Kadens Courage

3.Tiz Morning 

#1 WILD WEEKEND has been beset by two layoff lines amongst three starts, but colt has posted decent figaros in two of them, and may be even better bred for the dirt than those turf jammies. 28% Servis nearly doubles that rate with locally based mid level dirt dashers in the 51-97 day zip code ( 12-1 or less ) and has a positive return on investment in that regards. #6 KADENS COURAGE gets a jockey upgrade for today's 3rd off the layoff spin, and should be able to observe the proceedings from today's outside slot. #5 TIZ MORNING finished 3rd ( by just one length ) the only time he was available for purchase and may spice things up underneath. 

 

Race  3

1.Mr. Fidget

2.Titan's Will

3.Aleph

#1 MR. FIDGET merely split the field at 12-1 first time out, but drops a few pegs off that effort, and blinks are added off that effort, which is of some relevance. Over the last 60 months, Rice is a very nice 5 for 8 with 2TS'ers who missed the money less than 22 days back that are having blinkers added ( $24, $7, $9, $4 & $6 ). Expecting this one to be a bit more forwardly placed today. #4 TITAN'S WILL has gone 30-47-50-50 in all his dirt starts to date, so you pretty much know what you're getting at this point. #7 ALEPH drops a boatload of weight today and his two best efforts have come over a glib surface. 

 

Race  4 

1.True Blue Giant

2.My Amanjena

3.Overbold

We don't have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly. #7 TRUE BLUE GIANT finished second in his only one turn to two turn foray, and finds herself at her lowest level to date. Dally ( 11% day to day ) is 2 for 7 when going short to long with his mid level dirt stock off breaks of less than two dozen days ( $10 & $7 ). One for two mark when breaking from the outside is duly noted. #1 MY AMANJENA has been a part of the superfecta in all five times when beginning from the innermost three slots ( 4-12 otherwise ) and gets a decent rider switch. #3 OVERBOLD has only beaten home the chase ambulance in his last two calls to the post, but could perk up a bit trying a fast track for the 1st time. 

 

Race  5

1.Ghost Fighter

2.Mr. Phil

3.Fevola

#6 GHOST FIGHTER has been a ghost since the 10/27 disappointment, but the start before that was both fine AND dandy, and $500K auction purchase has a nice DRF Formulator stat behind him. Over the last 1,826 days, Casse owns a crisp 4 for 9 record with maiden special weight dirt dashers off sabbaticals of 53-139 days ( < 6-1 ). The mutuels for that sampling were $1, $13, $7 & $5, and of course we love the slot. #2 MR. PHIL has split the tri in four straight, and 10% shedrow has won with half of their six starters who hit the board less than a couple'a dozen days ago & are beneath the 11-1 watermark today. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #5 FEVOLA ( one half of the uncoupled Chad brown entry ), as there's a crisp 48 & 3 gate breeze showing on New Year's eve for today's bow.   NOTE: AS OF 2:53, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Miss Mi Mi

2.No Deal

3.Malibu Mischief

#2 MISS MI MI bested slightly weaker right here on the fifth of the month, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all her efforts. Five year old mare loses eight pounds off the winning effort, and that's something we always dig, as well as the fact that Rudy Rod is a sensational 11 of 22 with freshly purchased dirt dashers who scored less than seven weeks back ( est. $2.70 Return On Investment ) and there's a sub category of 7 fer 11 right here. #5 NO DEAL is 3 for 9 here, compared to being 0-16 elsewhere, and that's reason enough to include. In her last five outings, #7 MALIBU MISCHIEF has won three and been eased in two -- your move.  NOTE: AS OF 12:24, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Winifred J

2.Shesasuperfrak

3.Elegant Rose

#3 WINIFRED J has partaken in the superfecta in her last six trips to the frontside, and Barker ( 13% on the norm ) doubles his normative win rate with allowance sand sprinters ( 11-1 or less ) who crashed the fiesta 16-50 days back. Know her early, but have the Pepto handy late. After besting just two in her last four starts, #5 SHESASUPERFREAK has rebounded in a big way, with two runner up finishes right here -- one of them @ boxcar odds. Deserves your respect once again. #2 ELEGANT ROSE recently finished 2nd behind a next out winner in a nearly identical situation, and closed out the triple in her only "2nd off the L/O" try. Logical.

 

Race  8 

1.Imperio D

2.Go Rudy Go

3.Tiz Kaz Now

Seven signed on for the finale, Rudy has two of 'em, and we like them both. Not that they'll run 1-2, mind you, but we won't be delving any deeper for all our rolling action. #3 IMPERIO D set most of the fractions at this level on December 21st, and this clan is a smooth 10-23 with maiden claiming sprinters on the dirt who were 1-2-3 34 to 45 days back ( 9-2 or undah ). There's a sub category of 4 for 8 over this oval, and grab her by the tail to get the glory. #6 GO RUDY GO is another speedy sort, but we don't envision having these two duke it out with each other early on. Big chance if the top choice stubs her hoof at the break. #1 TIZ KAZ NOW takes the biggest drop in the game and may show improvement.  NOTE: AS OF 12:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION AND THE #2 WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE.

  


Aqueduct  ( Winter Meet ):      40-219     ( $354.10 )   Beatable  Favorites  2-7   ( 28.6% )     Favorites Win %:   92-219 ( 42.0% ) (As of Thursday morning)


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-403  ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 138-403 (34.2%)  +/-: -31.6% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2444-11991 ($20,492.10) Beatable Favorites : 335-1204( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4575-12094 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.5%  against a 16.5% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2529-12560 ($21,311.30)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4738-12681 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.4% takeout


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