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Chalky three bagger for us here yesterday, and a $148 Rolling Double in both Pegasus races, as we maintain a flat bet profit for the week. On top of that, we're still on a streak of 166 for 791 -- $1,582 Bet & $1,606 Returned ( going back over four months ) !


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 1/26

 

Race  1

1.Casse Entry

2.Fast Break

3.Tri Saint Lorenzo

Both the #1 FLYING CURLIN and the #1A CONQUISTADOR comprise decent halves of the Mark Casse entry in today's opener. The former hasn't been seen in a couple of Boxing Day's, but aforementioned shotcaller is a crisp 7:3-0-2 with locally based dirt runners at this level coming off hibernations of 51 days or more ( 22-1 or less ), with mutuels of $10 x 2 & $15, and the latter has hit the board in three of four on the sand. #2 FAST BREAK will likely be odds on in this spot, and while the troika of figaros lay over the field, keep in mind that this one has lost ground in the lane in each start and a bounce in the 2nd start off a break is always possible. Be careful. #6 TRI SAINT LORENZO is a steady if unspectacular sort who is as good as the rest to make the exotics. 

 

Race  2

1.Timely Tradition

2.Letmetakethiscall

3.First Forever

#2 TIMELY TRADITION showed little in the comebacker, but six year old mare owns a win and a runner up finish from as many "second off the L/O" tries, has the nice declining record which we've grown to love ( 24:7-5-3 ), and Atras is a lively 8:5-2-0 with Aqueduct based mid level dirt stock off breaks of 34-50 days @ lower than 22-1 ( $3, $14, $5 x 2 & $10 ). #5 LETMETAKETHISCALL is a fairly consistent sort who owns a poyfect three fer three mark at the trip. Miceli ( 18% day to day ) is 3-10 with runners of this ilk who were ITM < seven weeks ago at 16-1 or beneath ( $6 x 2 & $9 ). #3 FIRST FOREVER has done her best work at this trip, and Cancel has done some fine work for this outfit. 

 

Race  3

1.Massey Hall

2.Blinded Vision 

3.Stone Breaker

On our first draft of this race we were able to shave off five of the octet signed on, and we're really digging two of them, but for entirely different reasons. As of this writing, the odds still haven't been posted so what we're going to do is put our "gut" choice on top for now, and our "Formulator" stat for second. However, if we don't feel we're getting good value, we may flip 'em when the M.L.'s are posted. #6 MASSEY HALL has been a part of the triple in four straight, and while they were all on the poly, we feel ( really feel ) that this one will be MUCH better suited for today's initial dirt foray. Wanna see some proof? How 'bout that best of 111 breeze 15 days ago -- and from the GATE, no less. Oh yeah, the 2nd best work that day was posted by Joevia -- who finished 3rd in the Belmont Stakes and followed that up with a win. No worse than 3rd here for all you show punters, and if we can get a scratch from one of the other two -- would be our play of the meet. #3 BLINDED VISION hasn't been seen in eleven flips of the calendar, but Double G is a snazzy 6:4-2-0 with mid level dirt dashers in Ozone Park who scored more than 50 days ago ( 10-1 or undah ), with mutuels of $4, $7, $9 & $10. #1 STONE BREAKER is 4:3-1-0 locally and what the hell's wrong with that?  NOTE: AS OF 10:49, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Princess in Charge

2.Orbilicious

3.Appletini

#3 PRINCESS IN CHARGE is 3:1-0-1-1 over a glib surface, with the recent showing occurring with the eye cup addition. Note that this miss got clipped from behind last time out ( no 15 yard penalty ), and is a threat to go all the way with a tidy sojourn. #2 ORBILICIOUS hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but appeared to have an affinity for this course last year and finds herself at lowest level yet. #4 APPLETINI sheds a whopping nine pounds off her solid showing in the 1st start off of the Leah claim, and could wreck havoc for our top choice if able to catch a flyer early on.  NOTE: AS OF 10:53, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Quick Entry

2.Elios Milos

3.Flat Rate

We have three decent sets of trainer stats in play here, so let's get to 'em directly...  #5 QUICK ENTRY: Cox ( dig it ) is a flawless four for four with freshly claimed sand sprinters last in action 51-57 days back at 7-1 or less. The mutuels for that study were $4, $5, $6 & $7, and 4YO colt has never seen these depths. #7 ELIOS MILOS: Schettino ( from a small sampling ) has scored with two of six AQU dirt runners at this level who got their photos taken 22-50 days ago & are beneath the 14-1 watermark ( $8 & $12 ). Franco takes over for the injured Diaz. #9 FLAT RATE: Rudy Rod ( 19% when brushing his choppers in the morning ) is 13-42 ( 31% ) with 2nd off the layoff ( < 32 days ) Queens runners at this level going short on the brown stuff @ lower than 9-1, who who partook in the triple last out. 

 

Race  6 

1.Bridlewood Cat

2.Posse Needed

3.Piede Bianchi

#5 BRIDLEWOOD CAT has been an entirely different kind of horse -- altogether  ( "Bridlewood Cat has been an entirely different kind of horse." ) -- since being freshened and cut back, as Thomas charge has gone back to back in impressive fashion. Three comebackers from the December 8th score have rung up a cumulative 3:2-1-0 boxscore since then, improving their Beyers by an average of eight points in the process. There ain't no worldbeaters in here, and a threepeat is well within reach beneath her fourth different pilot in as many outings. #1 POSSE NEEDED has been ITM in all three "2nd off the shelf" forays, and has also made the superfecta in all four starts in this zip code -- with NONE of those seven races overlapping, so she seems like a sensible "unders" candidate. Happy anniversary to #6 PIEDI BIANCHI who returns off exactly a year layoff, but don't fret, my pet, as the ol' grey mare completed the tri in her only start off an absence, & is a threat to do such again if fully cranked by the new connex.. 

 

Race  7

1.Love of My Heart

2.Well Brush Mytooth

3.Miss Marissa

Today's featured race is named after the Hall of Famer Ruthless, who won the initial Belmont Stakes. For a bit of history on her, feel free to peruse this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruthless_(horse) .  #1 LOVE OF MY HEART took to the dirt for the first time quite well, thank you, as Casse charge procured the sheepskin quite well in winning by nearly four. Four returnees from that heat have come back to ring up a 4:2-1-0 mark ( from three separate events ) w/an average speed figure of 14 points. No break in the weights for an apprentice getting a stakes call, but as there aren't any standouts here, we'll take a shot with the bug. #4 WELL BRUSHMYTOOTH has improved with each start, has never been off the board, and loses 64 oz. in the weight department; playable. #8 MISS MARISSA finished second behind a next out winner in her lone 2X to 1X event and is 2nd off the break today while getting some class relief.  NOTE: AS OF 4:39 P.M. SATURDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 11:05, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Pirelli Tower

2.Apex Predator

3.Lorcan

#3 PIRELLI TOWER hasn't faced the starter in a couple of Thanksgivings, but compiled a nice collection of #'s back in 2018, including an adjusted figure of 61.1 at a higher level, which would do well here. Obviously there's a lot of water under the bridge since that time, but we're assuaged by the fact that new trainer Falcone has a very good 6-15 statistic when getting a horse for the first time and bringing them back in a dirt sprint off a L/O of more than 50 days @ 25-1 or lower ( $8, $3 x 2, $11, $2 & $31 ). Expect this one to be gunning from the onset. #6 APEX PREDATOR was a well beaten but well clear runner up in a near identical spot on 1/11, and 7% Friedman nearly quadruples that rate ( 3 for 11 ) with runners fitting all of today's parameters at 10-1 or < ( $9, $6 & $8 ). #2 LORCAN closes out our week.  NOTE: AS OF 11:12, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES THE #'s 9 & 10 WILL BE OUR 2ND AND 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

  


Aqueduct  ( Winter Meet ):      38-211     ( $335.40 )   Beatable  Favorites  2-7   ( 28.6% )     Favorites Win %:   91-211 ( 43.1% ) (As of Sunday morning)


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-403  ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 138-403 (34.2%)  +/-: -31.6% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2444-11991 ($20,492.10) Beatable Favorites : 335-1204( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4575-12094 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.5%  against a 16.5% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2529-12560 ($21,311.30)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4738-12681 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.4% takeout


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