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Just a couple of chalky winners yesterday on a day laden with the stuff ( 6 of 8 ). The good news tho, is that we're still on a streak of 157 for 755 -- $1,510 Bet & $1,552 Returned ( going back over four months ) ! 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 1/20

 

Race  1

1.Vineyard Sound

2.Seed Money

3.Kaden's Courage

#4 VINEYARD SOUND returned off a 7 1/2 month layoff to go coast to coast like butter and toast right here about two weeks ago, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. The figure came back honest enough, and as there are no world beaters signed on, we'll get tied on ! #1 SEED MONEY lost by only three at 23-1 in the first try off an elongated absence last time out, and gets in with a feather today while sliding in four slots as well. It's worth noting that this one went all the ay @ 16-1 in his lone "2nd off the L/O" spin, and closed out the exacta in front of a next out winner the only time he was up for sale. Hmmmm.....  #2 KADEN'S COURAGE ( scratched Saturday for this ) may have needed the most recent off a half'a year sabbatical, and has a nice ITM rate both at this trip and over this strip.

 

Race  2

1.Sweet Breeze

2.Molly's Shrink

3.Happyandiknowit

#6 SWEET BREEZE has yet to hit the board in her 20 race career, but had an excuse in the most recent, and was heading in the right direction over three straight starts just prior to that. We permit ourselves to look anywhere in a maiden's P.P.'s ( as they're maidens for a reason, ya know ), and this one has tossed in an okay performance or two. Bombs away in a grotesque heat. #8 MOLLY'S SHRINK begins her working life today, and draws well for it, as well as having decent pedigree for this trip. #7 HAPPYANDIKNOWIT is 3rd off the layoff and drops a few pegs while adding eye cups. 

 

Race  3

1.Gypsum Johnny

2.Bourbon Mission

3.San Juan Diego

#3 GYPSUM JOHNNY was positively awful in the most recent, but sheds a whopping 13 pounds and has done okay at this distance. Will need to have every bit of the 20-1 morning line offering, as the barn has been ice cold on this circuit of late. #6 BOURBON MISSION has only beaten three home over the last duet, but you can toss the most recent, as this one is better suited for a fast track than a wet one, and may perk up a bit with a decent bug assigned. #5 SAN JUAN DIEGO takes the obligatory hike in class after a smart win & a claim at the $16,000 level, and makes sense right back.

 

Race  4 

1.Shadolamo

2.Holmdel Park 

3.Courageous Girl

Going with the "Babe Ruth Tri" here ! #7 SHADOLAMO didn't show much in the most recent, but Junior Alvarado saw enough in the penultimate outing to get legged up at 20-1 today. Price play. #1 HOLMDEL PARK gets some big time class relief this afternoon and slides in from the 11 hole to the wood here; lone win came over this oval. #4 COURAGEOUS GIRL procured the diploma in wire to wire fashion here 29 days back, and as this one has gone 36-46-52 on the Beyer scale, who knows where her ceiling is.

 

Race  5

1.Becky's Mission

2.Big Red Girl

3.Just Stay Home

#2 BECKY'S MISSION returned after a four month absence to complete the triple at boxcar odds in the first start for Papa Englehart on 12/21, and 370 Tomlinson figure tells us that there's still some potential for improvement here. A bounce is most defintely possible, but we'd be remiss in excluding. #5 BIG RED GIRL came along nicely to secure second place money on December 21st, and drops 90 ounces off that effort. Watch out, suckahs ! #11 JUST STAY HOME ....Franco/Rice/8-1/outside slot. 

 

Race  6 

1.They Shot Sonny 

2.Dark N Cloudy

3.Liam Lets Go

#9 THEY SHOT SONNY ( on the causeway )was nowhere to be found on the 7th of December, but three solid numbers had been posted just prior to that, and hey -- "They all can't be winners, kid." Six year old chestnut runner owns a nice ledger at this  dist., and you should recognize that this one owns a 6:2-2-1 mark when beginning from the outermost two posts in dirt dashes ( 30:3-5-5 in all other starts ). #3 DARK N CLOUDY goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today, and aside from the dead last finish over a wet track last out, has never been enterd this cheaply over a glib surface. #1 LIAM LETS GO is three fer six going 3/4's and oh-fer-seven in all other deals, and has done quite well from beginning from the inside; gets in light.

 

Race  7

1.Playthatfunnymusic

2.Heavy Roller 

3.Its All Relevant

#3 PLAYTHATFUNNYMUSIC ( who's using the complete allotment of 18 characters for a horse's name ) had his four race winning streak snapped a weak and a half ago, but was by no means disgraced that day in finishing 4th. Gutsy gelding has done well under several parameters relating to today's event, and rates a slight edge with us. #2 HEAVY ROLLER bested what we would consider to be a tougher bunch last time out, and Atras charge owns a win and a placing from as many 2X to 1X spins over a fast track. #7 ITS ALL RELEVANT is 10 for 24 lifetime and what the hell's wrong with that ??

 

Race  8 

1.Piedi Bianchi

2.Abounding Joy

3.New Year's Wish 

#4 PIEDI BIANCHI has a touch of back class and completed the triple in her lone try off a break. Meeeekest of selection in a race that we don't have a good read on. #2 ABOUNDING JOY gets a positive trainer change today and has fared well at this dx, and over this oval. #5 NEW YEAR'S WISH crushed 'em in her lone "3rd off the L/O" go round, and how do you argue with that 7:5-0-1 boxscore in Ozone Park?  NOTE: AS OF 12:02, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-3-5.

 

Race  9 

1.Sassy Secret

2.Molly's Nighthawk

3.Miss Ross

#4 SASSY SECRET was a bit green at the start first time out, then was steadied, then was compelled to race along the inside ( which is never optimum for a firster ), so suffice to say, there's nowhere to go but up, right? Well, we hope so, as we're putting this zillion to one shot on top, but at least Lasix is now part of the package, and if our memory serves us correct, little known pilot split the tri for this outfit at BIG balloons not too long ago. It's a bad race, folks... #1 MOLLY'S NIGHTHAWK gets in light and draws the inside. #2 MISS ROSS nearly blew up the tote when missing by a honker at 57-1 a month and a half ago, and has to be incorporated once again.  

  


Aqueduct  ( Winter Meet ):      29-177     ( $282.00 )   Beatable  Favorites  2-7   ( 28.6% )     Favorites Win %:   69-177 ( 39.0% ) (As of Monday morning)


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-403  ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 138-403 (34.2%)  +/-: -31.6% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2444-11991 ($20,492.10) Beatable Favorites : 335-1204( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4575-12094 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.5%  against a 16.5% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2529-12560 ($21,311.30)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4738-12681 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.4% takeout


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