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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #11 Hard Won


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/25

 

Race  1

1.Mrs. Danvers

2.So Darn Hot

3.Say Moi

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #2 MRS. DANVERS has tossed in but one clunker in her six race career, and that race was the Test, which was won by Gamine -- who has since tested positive for a SECOND time this year under the tutelage of Lidocaine Bob Baffert. That being said, we always like when a trainer isn't scared to make an equipment/medication change off a solid effort, and Shug now adds blinkers to a filly entering off a career best Beyer. There should be some decent speed for this one to cut into, here. #4 SO DARN HOT has gone 66-81 in her two starts going one turn, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Chance to rebound off the Pimlico disappointment. #1 SAY MOI was a gamely and well clear runner up in her lone try at Big Sandy, and deserves to be left in the mix. 

 

Race  2

1.So Enchanting 

2.Amalfi Princess

3.Mun Luv

#2 SO ENCHANTING put forth a solid performance right outta the box for Brown on the 3rd, and the pedigree tells us that the result was likely not an aberration. Chestnut runner slides into the pine this afternoon, and should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #7 AMALFI PRINCESS showed marked improvement from the first start to the second, when catching firm ground for the 1st time AND stepping into graded company. Third different pilot in as many outings is her best one yet, and this'll be our only saver to the above. #6 MUN LUV has a bit of speed and may last for a share.  OFF TURF: 5-2-6-1A(MTO)-3   NOTE: DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Fed Funds 

2.Cavaradossi

3.Southern Bridge 

#3 FED FUNDS had no tangible excuse for the recent flop, and is now put up for sale for the first time by DePaz. Gelding broke his maiden right here and rates a slim margin in a rather hum drum affair, toting the lightest impost of his career. #4 CAVARADOSSI has been a part of the superfecta in both starts off the bench and has a 4:1-0-2 mark at today's distance. #7 SOUTHERN BRIDGE is two for two when going from green to brown, and those wins yielded career best #'s on a fast and a wet track; Irad sees fit to ride. 

 

Race  4 

1.Passive Investing 

2.Gogo Shoes

3.Eye of a Soldier 

#8 PASSIVE INVESTING hasn't shown a whole heck of a lot since returning off a bit of a freshening, but Castellano is okay with sticking around, and he was aboard for the maiden breaker a year & 15 days back. We'll pin our hopes to a rebound in today's 3rd off the L/O try. #2 GOGO SHOES outran her odds when closing out the exacta at 19-1 on the inner a month ago, and has been a much improved animal since switching surfaces; logical once again. #3 EYE OF A SOLDIER has hit the board in all three starts since being transferred over to the Mott barn, and while we'll be including, it's with a touch of trepidation, as she didn't show much improvement when having blinkers added, and will likely be overbet.  OFF TURF: 4-8-6-2-7

 

Race  5

1.Our Flash Drive

2.Baba

3.Actually 

#7 OUR FLASH DRIVE hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in either call to the post, but the bloodlines tell us that she deserves another shot going over the gramma for the first time. Blinks are now a part of the package, and we like the morning move on 10/11. Timid choice in a tricky affair. #6 BABA is another one making the surface switch off a respite, and we like the improved speed shown second time out. Expect Saez to have this one forwardly placed early on. #4 ACTUALLY went for more than 3 1/2 times the stud fee at auction a bit over a year ago, and definitely has some green coursing through her veins.  OFF TURF: 4-3-9-8-10  NOTE: AS OF 11:06, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Our American Star 

2.Centsmybabyleftme

3.Macho Boy

#11 OUR AMERICAN STAR has a nice prorated figure of 67.1 in the most recent, and although that 1 fer 49 lifetime mark leaves a lot to be desired, he's facing no world beaters here, and we're thinking he'll make a fair impression here at 20-1 odds. #4 CENTSMYBABYLEFTME has some nice early zip and gets a decent "send" pilot. You'll likely have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. #7 MACHO BOY was a clear 3rd at 59-1 a baker's dozen days ago, but this one has a propensity for losing ground late in the game, and as Luzzi is on a woeful 1-94 streak, we'll toss in the "unders". 

 

Race  7

1.Kitten's Romance 

2.Cherokee Song 

3.Wicked Happy

#4 KITTEN'S ROMANCE merely bested half the field in her first start off the Duggan snag, and aforementioned shotcaller is precipitously better than his 2020 stats belie. He leaves the eye cups in the tack room today ( likely a smart move ), and this one -- sliding in six slots -- should be no worse than 3rd in a heat where our top troika will suffice. #9 CHEROKEE SONG drops a few pegs off a fair try two weeks in the rear, and goes from an apprentice to an improving journeyman who guided her to her best BSF to date. #10 WICKED HAPPY finished just ahead of the above in their most recent encounter and usually gives a good account of herself.  OFF TURF: 4-6-7-1-5   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #11 HARD WON doesn't make our first cut, so why would we take 3-1?      HONORABLE MENTION: #7 STARRY HOPE ( For "Pope of Greenwich Village" fans ! )  

 

Race  8 

1.Pete's Play Call

2.Mo Gotcha

3.Mad Munnys

#7 PETE'S PLAY CALL has won two of three and brings along a solid figure when finishing 4th in a near identical spot 29 days back. Saez once again in the saddle, and he was astride for the victory in their lone pairing. #5 MO GOTCHA was nicely spotted in the confidence building tally down at The Shore on September 26th, and although he's stepping up now, we're assuaged by the local ledger from '19. #2 MAD MUNNYS takes the mandatory hike in claiming price off the 10/12 purchase, but notice we didn't say hike in "class", as we consider open 40K foes slightly better than this group. BIG shot once again. 

 

Race  9 

1.Tapit Today

2.Altea ( Fr ) 

3.Mitchell Road

#8 TAPIT TODAY ( one half of the three headed Chad Brown monster ) is a lightly raced five year old who has partaken in the superfecta in all eight starts since the bow ( including three graded tries ), and the ol' grey mare closed out the exacta in her lone 1X to 2X spin, and could be sitting on a good one for today's third off the break try. #5 ALTEA (FR) is a nibbler by rote ( 22:2-8-4 ), but has some decent back class & has a good rapport w/ Irad. #1 MITCHELL ROAD is but a neck shy of a 3-3 record when first to load, and it;s difficult to argue with the 13 exacta finishes from 17 career starts.   OFF TURF: 3-1-5-6-8

 

Race  10

1.Violent Point

2.Data Analytics 

3.Fresco

#2 VIOLENT POINT comes in today with an adjusted speed figure of 74.7 last time out, and we only see two others who can top that from their last three trips to the track. That being said, we're all over the 10-1 morning line offering here, but we can't see her going off that high. Play of the day. #3 DATA ANALYTICS has a smart maiden breaking win sandwiched between two grotesque efforts, but there's no scary drop for an owner who ain't afraid to do just that with his high priced stock, and we'll give her another shot. #5 FRESCO is a deserving fave in the week's finale.  OFF TURF: 2-1-4-9-13 (AE) 


Belmont          ( Current ):     32-219     ( $285.00 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-14  ( 7.2% )  Favorites Win %      66-219   ( 30.1% )


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       8-36       ( $74.80 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-37   ( 32.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeo


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