KevinCoxItem


Just a couple of chalky winners yesterday.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/24 - New York Showcase Day

 

Race  1

1.Devious Mo

2.Cotton

3.Mambonick

#5 DEVIOUS MO has closed out the superfecta in both starts to date, and from a tiny sampling, 10% barn is 2 for 4 with maiden special weigh turf routers off breaks of less than 58 days ( 25-1 or undah ), with the winners paying a whopping $34 & $47. There's a sub category of 1-1 right here, and we'll take a shot at double digit odds. #12 COTTON has been anything but soft in his three outings thus far -- having hit the board in each -- and while no easy pickens here, definitely has a big shot in the opener on a day highlighting Empire breds. #6 MAMBONICK more than outran his parimutuel offering when finishing 4th at first asking, and did such despite the widest of sojourns. Jockey has been awful this year after getting some some double digit winners in 2019, and we'll chunk beneath.  OFF TURF: 4-12-5-6-7

 

Race  2

1.Party At Page's

2.Laobanonaprayer

3.Chasing Cara

#3 PARTY AT PAGE'S is but one point away from being an "Omnifig" in this spot, in such that all of his speed figures would supersede that of her competitors, and 'Miah owns a juicy 4 fer 10 mark with locally based ungraded dirt stock at 8-1 or less ( $15, $16, $7 & $11 ). Her race to lose. #6 LAOBANONAPRAYER is a maiden facing winners, but that really doesn't matter too much with the babies, as they can often improve with leaps and bounds. We like when a trainer isn't scared to make an equipment/medication change off a solid effort, and you'll note that blinkers are now a part of the makeup. #4 CHASING CARA ( one half of the uncoupled Friedman entry ) has partaken in the superfecta in four straight ( all at double digit odds ) and should be left in the hopper. 

 

Race  3

1.Boss Bear

2.Masked Marauder

3.Hold the Salsa 

#5 BOSS BEAR showed ( from a speed figure perspective ) substantial improvement from his first start to the second, and then from that one to the third, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Colt is decently bred for today's second try on the sand, and Maker has a decent 3 for 7 record when going green to brown with his dashers at this level who missed the baccala less than 40 days back ( 76-1 or lower ) with payouts of $7, $47 & $48. #3 MASKED MARAUDER has hit the board in both calls to the post, and is reunited with the pilot of his finer outing. #2 HOLD THE SALSA got the job done in a nearly similar spot 22 days back, and is logical once again. 

 

Race  4 

1.Myhartblongstodaddy

2.Niko's Dream 

3.War Canoe

#4 MYHARTBLONGSTODADDY shoots for the ( slightly interrupted ) grand slam today, and it's well within reach, given the rise in speed figures along the way, and her fondness for today's distance. #6 NIKO'S DREAM was fairly flat in the most recent, but gets a jockey change to one who one who guided her to a Florida win over the winter, and would be aided with any pace to cut into. #1 WAR CANOE has done decent work at this trip and over this strip, and can come along for a share.  OFF TURF: 6-4-5-1-2

 

Race  5

1.Byhubbyhellomoney

2.Sassy Melissa

3.Prett

#7 BYHUBBYHELLOMONEY was an even third first time out, and as this one tries the gramma for the first time, it's relevant to know that Cox has won with three of his eight first time turfers at this level @ 11-1 or lower ( 57 days or less ) making their second starts. Expecting an improved effort here. #3 SASSY MELISSA has a few zippy morning moves on the docket for today's initial trip to the track, and while this January foal is nicely bred, we'll relegate to the "unders" because of the Nordic barn. #5 PRETTY CLEVER doesn't have much on the docket to get the pulse racing for today's overture, but early foal went for 6X the stud fee at auction, and is as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 4-5-3-6-1  NOTE: AS OF 11;15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Forever Changed

2.Lucky Move

3.Makingcents

#1 FOREVER CHANGED showed zilch when last in action, but sheds a fair amount of weight off that disappointment ( six pounds ), and slides into the pine ( where she has a win & a placing from as many outings ). Slimmest of margins in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 LUCKY MOVE has a touch of back class and cuts back from two turns to one, but we feel 3-1 is a bitter pill to swallow here, so we'll leave beneath. #3 MAKINGCENTS has yet to finish out of the money ( 6:3-0-3 ) and we can't fault those taking a favorable view. 

 

Race  7

1.Big Engine

2.Foolish Ghost

3.T Loves a Fight

#6 BIG ENGINE is an extremely gutsy animal, as seen by that lovely "declining" mark of 16:7-4-2 careerwise, and five year old "horse" ( You hang on to those dangling participles, buddy ! ) should sit a perfect trip. According to DRF Formulator, Rice is a near poyfect 6:5-0-1with runners of this ilk who won 6-41 days back & are 11-1 or below ( $3, $4, $8, $10 & $11 ). #5 FOOLISH GHOST has scored in three of four and absolutely digs it here at BEL, judging by the 12:5-0-2 boxscore. #8 T LOVES A FIGHT has proven to be a fantastic claim by the Noda crew, more than making back the $10,000 purchase price from way back when, and is another who likes this locale.  NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRACTCHES, #'S 4 & 7 WILL BE OUR 2ND & 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  8 

1.Cross Border

2.Therapist

3.Rinaldi

We have three small but solid sets of DRF Formulator statistics in play for the Mohawk, so let's get to 'em in a no frills manner.  #8 CROSS BORDER: Mike Maker has an unblemished 3 for 3 ledger with ungraded turf stayers who were off the board less than three fortnights back; hard not to like the 19:8-4-1 record on the sod, as it tells us that this one knows where the finish line is. #5 THERAPIST: C-Squared owns a 7:4-1-2 mark with routers at this class level who crashed the fiesta 33-67 days back & are 6-1 or below ( ridden by Irad ), with a $2.65 return on investments. #6 RINALDI has essentially improved with each passing outing, and 007 has a View to a Kill with those fitting this criteria who tallied a win 33-67 days ago ( $5 & $8 ).  OFF TURF: 6-5-8-3-7

 

Race  9 

1.Prairie Fire

2.Espresso Shot 

3.Timely Tradition

#5 PRAIRIE FIRE has posted her best two lifetime BSF's over the last duet, and has done fine work over this strip and at this trip. Over the last 60 months, Rice is a nice 6:3-1-2 with Bel. based ungraded dirt equines who were 1-2-3 less than 25 days back ( $8, $7 & $11 ). Solid shot at 8-1. #4 ESPRESSO SHOT was a gamely runner up at 20-1 in her sole T to D try, and it also came when going from two turns to one. Johnny V. sees fit to ride. #9 TIMELY TRADITION is a win machine ( having won four of five ) and makes all kinds of sense here. 

 

Race  10

1.Funny Guy

2.Bankit

3.Our Last Buck

Featured race of the day is the Empire Classic.  #3 FUNNY GUY gets some substantial class relief today after tangling with G1 & G2 foes, and he by no means disgraced himself in those heats in losing by a total of five lengths in them. Four year old has a fantastic record in the state bred ranks, and Terranova has a sweet 7-19 mark with ungraded dirt stock who were in the money last out & are 14-1 or beneath today ( $9, $23, $5 x 3, $29 & $6 ). #5 BANKIT is a steady if not spectacular sort who has a propensity to nibble a bit, so we'll chunk in the "unders". #1 OUR LAST BUCK is but a head shy of a two fer two record when first to load, and has partaken in the exacta over his last quintet.  NOTE: AS OF 11:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  11

1.Impazible Odds

2.Jo's Bold Cat

3.Steelersfanforlife

#12 IMPAZIBLE ODDS came along decently to pick up 12% of the pot when competing against what we would consider to be a tougher allotment last time out, and is now toting the lightest impost of career. Meeeeeekest of selections in a race that we really don't have a good read on. #10 JO'S BOLD CAT overcame some trouble to come flying late in the game a half month back to miss by just a neck, and is hard to dismiss of that effort. #4 STEELERSFANFORLIFE is a bit of an in and outer, and you're getting 18% Junior at 15-1, so we'll incorporate.  OFF TURF: 8-1-2-11-5 


Belmont          ( Current ):     31-208     ( $280.80 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-14  ( 7.2% )  Favorites Win %      64-208   ( 30.8% )( As of Saturday morning )  


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       8-36       ( $74.80 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-37   ( 32.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeo


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