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Just one on a chalk laden day yesterday, but we're digging this card a bit, so let's see if we can right the ship ! 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/23

 

Race  1

1.Millefeuille 

2.Plum Awesome

3.Wedding Band

#1 MILLEFEUILLE ( a "Napoleon style" pastry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mille-feuille ) put forth a sweet performance first time out, when outrunning her 12-1 mutuel offering right here 23 days back, and the 381 Tomlinson figure for the distance tells us that the result was likely not an aberration. Gal has been working well since, and should sit a perfect trip in this truncated field. #5 PLUM AWESOME has been working well for today's initial call to the post, and draws ideally while being well bred for this sorta deal. #2 WEDDING BAND has yet to miss a workout since August 2nd ( one of them a bullet ), and 424 Tommy positively jumps off the page; could be any kind. 

 

Race  2

1.Leeway

2.R V Treasure

3.Sky Kitten

#2 LEEWAY has steadily improved over her last quintet, and the runner up from the most recent returned a victress, essentially replicating the prior speed figure. Gal owns a win on the inner ( versus tougher ), and who knows where the ceiling is here.  #4 R V TREASURE ( cross entered at Laurel today, so check the scratches ) is a bit light from a speed figure standpoint, but she appears to be a gritty sort who is doubled up in price off the maiden tally. Not hopeless. #5 SKY KITTEN can be forgiven the recent dirt deal, and had a couple of decent turf showings just prior to that. Chance to rebound at a square #.  OFF TURF: 2-1-3-6-7  NOTE: AS OF 11:53, DUE TO AN ERROR, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-7-4.

 

Race  3

1.Kept Waiting

2.Moon Sweeper

3.Lookin to Fly

#7 KEPT WAITING has been a jealous bridesmaid over her last troika, but has the best overall body of work in the field, and there's a solid DRF Formulator stat in play here. Over the last five years, Falcone is a near poyfect 4 fer 5 with freshly purchased dirt stock off breaks of 47 days or less ( 10-1 or beneath ), with payouts of $16 x 2, #11 & $9. Positive jockey switch from Jose Lezcano to Irad Ortiz in play today. #10 MOON SWEEPER put forth an even showing first time out, but may have outrun her pedigree that day, so we'll leave beneath until we see another strong effort on the gramma. #4 LOOKIN TO FLY rallied nicely to complete the exacta when skipping of the blades for the first time, and we can't argue with those taking a favorable view.  OFF TURF: 7-4-2-6-10

 

Race  4 

1.Coral Legacy

2.Steam Engine

3.Mine the Coin

#5 CORAL LEGACY was fanned extremely wide in the most recent, but drops a few pegs this afternoon, and rates a legit chance ( at a price ) if able to revert back to the prior two outings in just his second start on the sand. #4 STEAM ENGINE is the clear speed of this deal, but has lost ground in the lane in every single start ( moreso of late ), and is now available for purchase for the first time. Mixed signals. #1 MINE THE COIN takes the obligatory hike in class after besting 16K N2L foes on September 19th, and a repeat is well withing reach off the career best fast track number. 

 

Race  5

1.Vicarage

2.Loaded Joe

3.Holy Emperor

#3 VICARAGE has gone 48-72-74 in his three turf starts to date, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Colt has done well beneath Rosario, and from the most limited of samplings, C-Squared is two for four with locally based mid level turf routers who missed the board less than 44 days in the rear. Mild selection. #10 LOADED JOE got a bit of confidence back when shipped to Philadelphia Park for an engagement versus cheaper, as the grey gelding was a nice second that day, and we'll toss into the hopper. After a lackluster performance, #7 HOLY EMPEROR takes the biggest drop in the game today and has blinkers affixed for the first time by Double J; may perk up.  OFF TURF: 4-2-1-10-6

 

Race  6 

1.Chocolate Bar

2.Our Country

3.Implied Volatility

#5 CHOCOLATE BAR was in the back of the pack when tangling with stakes foes down in Maryland, but we're going to attribute at least part of the disastrous result that day to the soft going, as this one was dead last in the lone other try in that regards. Colt showed a six pt. improvement when facing winners for the first time ( nothing to sneeze at ), and is now reunited w/his favorite jock. From an itty bitty survey, M.M. has a two for three ledger with Belmont stabled allowance stock going long on the law, who missed the triple < 40 days ago. #6 OUR COUNTRY is a steady if unspectacular sort who is protected against the claim after a placing against platers on 9/5. #8 IMPLIED VOLATILITY closes out the tri.  OFF TURF: 2-4-5-8-10(MTO)

 

Race  7

1.Bears Mafia

2.Celtic Chaos

3.Runaway Lute

#7 BEARS MAFIA sure is a fun horse, heh? Gutsy gelding rides a six race winning streak into today, and there's nothing telling us that it's not feasible given the progression of BSF's of late. We like the way this one rated in the most recent tally, but that may not be necessary with a dearth of speed signed on. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #2 CELTIC CHAOS got trounced when dropped into open waters after the claim by Rudy, but is now back at the purchase level ( a win, BTW ), while having the helmsman from that day legged up in this spot. He loves the strip and trip, so you best leave in despite the frigid clan. #6 RUNAWAY LUTE is 4 for 7 @ Big Sandy ( 1-14 elsewhere ) and that's more than enough reason to include.   NOTE: AS OF 11:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Come Storming

2.Micromillion

3.More Mango

#8 COME STORMING found the line first the last time he was in with a tag, and after failing on the cutback, switches back to her preferred distance for today's 2nd start with blinkers. #1 MICROMILLION was all out to procure the sheepskin by a honker about a month back and appears properly spotted in his first foray against winners. #5 MORE MANGO had no palpable excuse for the poor effort when last seen, but hey, that first try out of the claiming ranks is no piece of cake. Encouraging to see I. Ortiz climb aboard and we'll give her another chance.  OFF TURF: 5-1A-11-2-3

 

Race  9 

1.Grumps Little Tots

2.Three Technique

3.Dark Storm

#5 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS bested only one when battling stakes competition in the first start off the August 5th claim, and as this one was a solid runner up in his sole 2X to 1X try, Saffie does the smart thing in cutting him back and spotting him at a more suitable level. Aforementioned bossman has been unblemished with both of his optional dirt dashers who missed the baccala 46-50 days in the past ( $4 & $7 ). #1 THREE TECHNIQUE is 3:2-1-0 when breaking from the innermost three slots on the sand ( 4:0-2-0 otherwise ), and owns a placing in his one start over this oval. #4 DARK STORM ( also spotted yesterday, so take a peek at the changes ) hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but showed in the lone try off an absence, and has a win in BEL. 

 

Race  10

1.Iron Pearls

2.Secret Potion

3.Scarlett Sky

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #9 IRON PEARLS didn't display much first out, but broke from a disadvantageous post that day, and we have a fondness for failing dirt sprinters stretching out on the grass for the first time. Price play. #12 SECRET POTION will take some pounding at the windows today off the honest fig earned in a G1 north of the border, and while deserving of your respect, keep in mind that it was going one turn, and we like seeing two efforts at a particular trip before feeling strongly about him. #6 SCARLETT SKY should be no worse than third for all you show punters out there.  OFF TURF:1-2-3-12-6 


Belmont          ( Current ):     29-198     ( $270.80 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-14  ( 7.2% )  Favorites Win %      61-198   ( 30.8% )( As of Friday morning ) 


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       8-36       ( $74.80 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-37   ( 32.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeo


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