KevinCoxItem


Happy President's Day everyone ! 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 2/17 - Happy President's Day

 

Race  1

1.Mason's Friend

2.Ms. Malevolence 

3.Kashmir Queen

#2 MASON'S FRIEND begins her working life today, and does such with a decent Tomlinson figure, a slight maturity edge over some others signed on, and a top 10% bullet gate breeze eight days back. Gal is the first foal out of a dam who had just one dirt sprint to her credit, but sire was 2 for 2 in dirt dashes, and obviously, the paternal grandsire was a "champeen". Slight edge in the holiday opener. #5 MS. MALEVOLENCE is an obvious factor, given the last three running lines & figures, and there's not really much more need to espouse any further here. #3 KASHMIR QUEEN was a bit rank in the bow, but still outran her odds when splitting the field that day, and is protected against the claim today while still eschewing Lasix. 

 

Race  2

1.Jennemily

2.Matty's Magnum

3.Avalina

Tho not mandated to be hiked up in class after the December 15th purchase, #3 JENNEMILY was hiked up in class a month ago, and "The As Man" knew what he was doing, as a sharp allowance win was the end result. Although this one is eligible for the straight N2X condition today, the connex. look to make a quick buck by entering her for the tag in this optional event. Worth mentioning that four returnees from the tally have amassed a cumulative 4:1-2-1 mark in their followup outings ( from two separate events ) with an average Beyer improvement of 13.3 points. #1 MATTY'S MAGNUM is one for two at this trip ( which was also over this strip ) and ain't hopeless. If you're willing to forgive the pre & post L/O running lines of #4 AVALINA ( which we often do to find a price ), then what you have is a gal that's a neck shy of a perfect 4 for 4 mark. Gargan charge totes the lightest impost of her career and deserves some respect. 

 

Race  3

1.Awesome Party

2.Cowtown

3.Distorted Sky

#4 AWESOME PART showed zip in the overture, but was smacked around at the onset and eye cups are added this afternoon. That second part is of some relevance, as from a minuscule sampling, Pletcher has won with both of his starters when doing that to his second timers going long who missed the baccala 22-50 days back ( $4 & $2 ). #2 COWTOWN ( uncoupled barnmate w/the above ) has completed the exacta in three straight, and aforementioned shotcaller is a crisp 4-10 w/3rd off the break dirt stayers at this level who were 1-2-3 last time out. #5 DISTORTED SKY has put forth two honest efforts to date and has to be left in the hopper. 

 

Race  4 

1.Digital Footprint

2.Hardcore Folklore

3.Who's in Charge 

#5 DIGITAL FOOTPRINT was dueling down and on the inside in the most recent, and that's never easy to do, so the last place finish wasn't altogether surprising. The prior outing yielded an adjusted 82.1, and this one deserves a shot going over a fast track for the 2nd time. Mild choice. #7 HARDCORE FOLKLORE has beaten just one home in the last duet, but the foray three back was a solid one, and we always go back three starts to find something positive. Chestnut runner gets in light and has performed well @ this distance. #9 WHO'S IN CHARGE went coast to coast against weaker two fortnights ago and is difficult to dismiss.  NOTE: AS OF 12:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Laura's Posse

2.Brimstone

3.Liam Lets Go

#5 LAURA'S POSSE lost by less than a length in her lone second off the layoff spin ( 74.4 ) and is a whopping 3 fer 7 at the dx.; Meeeeeeeeek choice. #4 BRIMSTONE has done some nice work at The Big A ( 5-19 compared to a 4-28 boxscore at other venues ) and may jazz things up a bit. #9 LIAM LETS GO is three for eight at this distance ( 0-7 going other distances of ground ) and finds himself at his lowest level to date.  NOTE: AS OF 12:45, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Wiggle and Jiggle 

2.Officer Hutchy

3.Vibrancy 

#3 WIGGLE AND JIGGLE drops in weight and class today, and gal doubled her speed figure from the first fast track outing to the next, so who truly knows where her ceiling is in that department. Cheaply bred/purchased runner has already outperformed her expectations, and can add to it while facing this lackluster allotment. #6 OFFICER HUTCHY has ( from an adjusted speed figure perspective ) improved with each passing start, and has done so while ascending up the class ladder. Filly has yet to miss an exacta placing and who are we to think otherwise here? #8 VIBRANCY appreciated the drop in class on New Year's Eve, procuring the sheepskin before changing addresses that afternoon. Three year old was kept in jail afterwards, and returns for the same price under the meet's second best rider in Manny Franco. 

 

Race  7

1.'Bustin' entry

2.Party in the Raine 

3.Trouble for Skylar 

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  Both the #1 BUSTIN TO PLEASE ( winner of two of her last three & two of five @ this distance of ground ) and #1A BUSTIN SCONES ( one of four at the trip and getting blinkers for the first time her ), comprise decent halves of the entry, and the former shouldn't be worse than 3rd -- for all you show punters. #2 PARTY IN THE RAINE has hit the board in both starts off the bench, and consistent mare seems to like going 3/4's. #5 TROUBLE FOR SKYLAR has partaken in the ex. in half of her Aqueduct outings and should be right there once again. 

 

Race  8 

1.Binkster

2.P J Advantage 

3.Arthur's Hope

#3 BINKSTER positively blitzed the competition in his only start off an absence, and it's hard to argue with the career 50% exacta rate, ain't it ? Pre-layoff pilot returns,m which is something we always like to see, as it shows nothing untoward happened when they were last in tandem. #5 P J ADVANTAGE exits a race where three comebackers have gone 3:2-0-0 ( with a negligible Beyer change ) and is historically about 8.6% better on a fast track than a wet one, so you can expect some improvement in this spot. Blinkers now part of the mix for a gelding who likes to win. #8 ARTHUR'S HOPE went all the way vs. similar last out and is an obvious factor against this bunch. 

 

Race  9 

1.Saratoga Gal ( AE )

2.Threepointninenine

3.Signified

#15 SARATOGA GAL (AE) needs one to get out in order to get in, but should that come to bear, willl be toting along a solid numero from the debut, and has eye cups and juice added for the secondary go round. That heat is proving to be a key race, as all returnees have rung up a collective 9:3-2-1-1 mark ( from six different jammies ) with an avg. Beyer improvement of 5.9 pts.; looking strong from this outermost slot, should one declare. #10 THREEPOINTNINENINE has a couple of respectable morning moves for today's first start and comes with some decent pedigree as well. #4 SIGNIFIED closes out our holiday weekend action.  

  


Aqueduct  ( Winter Meet ):     46-304    ( $431.60 )  Beatable  Favorites  3-12  ( 25.0% )     Favorites Win %:   122-304 ( 40.1% ) ( As of Monday morning )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-403  ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 138-403 (34.2%)  +/-: -31.6% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2444-11991 ($20,492.10) Beatable Favorites : 335-1204( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4575-12094 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.5%  against a 16.5% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2529-12560 ($21,311.30)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4738-12681 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.4% takeout


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