KevinCoxItem


One was the loneliest number for us here yesterday. 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None  NOTE: Race 5 - #1 Implied Volatility


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Aqueduct - 2/16

 

Race  1

1.Ownitifyouwantit

2.Mutakaamil

3.Perceived

#2 OWNITIFYOUWANTIT posted an adjusted 85.9 in his lone dirt try off a layoff, and uncharacteristic for this horse, posted a solid morning move on the first of the month for today's comebacker. Gelding totes the lightest impost of his career and rates a slight edge in a race where we were unable to eliminate anyone at first glance. #5 MUTAKAAMIL hung up an adj. 76.4 in his only start off a break, and did such despite breaking slow from a disadvantageous post. Blinkers weren't on that day, and they're now part of the package, & Brown has a crisp 4-7 mark with locally based runners of this ilk off breaks of 51-95 days ( ridden by today's pilot ). #3 PERCEIVED ( uncoupled entrymate with our secondary selection ) has been beset by some layoff lines, but the overall body of work is decent enough, and pre-L/O pilot returns. 

 

Race  2

1.Love and Love

2.Happycrest

3.Girl of Toscanova

#6 LOVE AND LOVE has improved over his last troika, culminating with successive career best outings at this trip and over this strip. Ridgling has done decent work when breaking from the outermost two slots ( 5:2-1-0-1 compared to having a 7:0-3-0-1 ledger otherwise ), and note that he was a clear runner up in this race a couple'a dozen days back. #2 HAPPYCREST showed stark improvement the last time she had eye cups added and may spice things up a bit. #1 GIRL OF TOSCANOVA is another one having blinks added, and has yet to miss a super in three starts when beginning from the pine.  NOTE: AS OF 5:40 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  3

1.Sengekontacket

2.Heavenly Curlin

3.Sky Queen

#5 SENGEKONTACKET has the most consistent body of work of the sextet signed on, and a little bit of research shows that she's been keeping some decent company, as all returnees from her troika of outings have amassed a cumulative 14:5-1-5 mark in their followup starts ( from 12 different events ). Logical.  #4 HEAVENLY CURLIN can be forgiven the poor showing in her debut, as she encountered a bit of trouble that day, but $625,000 auction purchase is shipped northward to find an easier spot for the dirt bow, and all comebackers from the Hallandale heat have gone 9:3-1-0 in their subsequent appearances ( from seven different deals ). #3 SKY QUEEN has one ( and nearly two ) bullet gate breezes on the docket for today's overture, and that always merits inclusion for a firster. 

 

Race  4 

1.Evan's Nice Now

2.Appletini

3.Big Bennys Tribute

#7 EVAN'S NICE NOW has lost by a total of 87 & a half lengths in three of her last four, so consistency definitely isn't her strong point. That being said, 12% Toscano has an 8:4-2-0 record with Ozone Park based mid level dirt runners in the 44-50 day bracket ( $6, $10, $12 & $7 ), and there's a sub category of two fer three for those who finished OFF the board last time out. Gal sheds a boatload of weight for the first time beneath an apprentice who's a little better than his stats belie. #2 APPLETINI takes the obligatory hike in class off the recent wire job, and from an itty bitty survey, this barn is 2 of 3 with mid level dirt stock who tallied a win < three fortnights back ( $4 & $7 ). #1 BIG BENNYS TRIBUTE finds herself at her lowest level to date, and will be led over by a chap who's 3-7 with 2nd off the shelf Aqu. dirt dashers off hibernations of 51-327 days ( $4, $3 & $21 ). 

 

Race  5

1.Gongheifatchoy

2.Deternined One

3.Lorcan

These three and no more for all our rolling bets. #2 GONGHEIFATCHOY is in the best form of his life these days, having partaken in the triple over his last three, and sheds seven pounds while getting off the wood this afternoon. #6 DETERMINED ONE hasn't seen the scene in quite some time, but takes the biggest drop in the game here, and returns less two pistachios. Majah playah. #5 LORCAN was an honest enough fourth two spots behind a next out winner on New Year's Eve, and has proven to be better on a glib surface.  NOTE: AS OF 5:42 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 IMPLIED VOLATILITY.

 

Race  6 

1.My Roxy Girl

2.She's a Black Belt

3.Science Fiction

We never get sentimental in our selections, but are always happy when our favorite horse in training -- #1 MY ROXY GIRL -- lands in the selection box. $1,200 bred gal goes over the million dollar mark by hitting the board today, and just may be the best valued NYB mare in history. Despite having won eight times, she still remains eligible for today's open A1X jammie. Rice is a nice 8 for 20 ( 40% ) with runners fitting all this exact criteria off L/O's of 24-50 days, and has a positive ROI in that regards as well. #2 SHE'S A BLACK BELT hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but is 2:1-1-0 when loading into the first two slots ( 7:0-0-2 in other affairs ), and seems to dig this strip. #1 SCIENCE FICTION owns a 4 for 8 mark at The Big A and that obliterates the oh-fer-17 record in all other calls to the post -- how do you leave a runner like that out? NOTE: For triple purposes, we'll be using #3 Carrizo.

 

Race  7

1.I Love Jaxson

2.High Amplitude

3.Singapore Trader

#3 I LOVE JAXSON is three of five going this distance of ground, has won 4 of 5 on the whole, and should be tough to down. #9 HIGH AMPLITUDE won by a pole in his first try off an elongated absence, and both competitors who came back to run, got their photos taken next time out, improving their #'s by an average of 18.5 pts. in the process. Obvious contender, but beware of the bounce. #8 SINGAPORE TRADER has gone up and down the Beyer ladder over his last octet, so today should be a goodie, right? If only the game was that simple. Grey gelding digs the strip & trip, and just may give 'em the slip. 

 

Race  8 

1.Scilly Cay

2.Chowda

3.Bourbon Bay

Today's featured race is named in honor of the game, grey Gander, who had many accomplishments during his long career. One of which was having been named NY Bred horse of the year, and for the others, feel free to check out his Wiki page. #7 SCILLY CAY has yet to finish OTB, and that includes a start off the bench & a hike up the ladder. We like versatility like that, and chap got his Polaroid taken in his only start when being loaded last. Should sit a nice trip. For our secondary choice, ...WHO WANTS CHOWDA !!  The #2 has really figured things out recently, proven by the two recent wins over a fast track. Best work comes when forwardly placed, so expect that to be the case here. #6 BOURBON BAY was a well beaten but well clear runner up behind Independence Hall in the Jerome, and despite that one getting passed mid stretch when finishing 2nd in the Sam Davis last week, you can be sure that this one'll take some pounding at the windows. 

 

Race  9 

1.Hizaam

2.Jack Bo

3.Booby Trap

#5 HIZAAM is an extremely consistent sort, but we try to avoid animals dropping in class three or more straight times. Using, but with a mountain of trepidation. Place an upwards arrow next to the recent troika of #4 JACK BO, as this one has been on the improve, capping it off when being moved up to first at Philadelphia Park @ the end of January. Gelding is curiously entered at an all time low and pilot comes along for the ride. #9 BOOBY TRAP completes the day.  

  


Aqueduct  ( Winter Meet ):      44-295    ( $417.60 )   Beatable  Favorites  3-11  ( 27.3% )     Favorites Win %:   119-295 ( 40.3% ) ( As of Sunday morning )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-403  ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 138-403 (34.2%)  +/-: -31.6% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2444-11991 ($20,492.10) Beatable Favorites : 335-1204( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4575-12094 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.5%  against a 16.5% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2529-12560 ($21,311.30)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4738-12681 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.4% takeout


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