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Nice day in the exotics department for us here yesterday, as we got home a Rolling Pk. 5 for $11,265, a Rolling Pk. 4 for $3,044, THREE Rolling Pk. 3's of $459, $421 & $473, FIVE Rolling Doubles of $50, $214, $48, $32 & 119, and s successful 'Beatable Favorite' as well.  


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 2/15

 

Race  1

1.Patrol

2.Sixteen Tons

3.Twelth Man

#2 PATROL has a few decent morning moves for today's initial spin, and $35,000 bred animal ( who went for 10X that amount at auction ) was sired by a runner who went 4:3-1-0 in dirt sprints, and we'll give this one a tepid nod in an opener where we were unable to eliminate anyone with our first draft. #4 SIXTEEN TONS was confidently hiked up in class after the December 13th purchase, but the result left a lot to be desired for this in and outer, as he finished up the track. "Apprentice to Journeyman" angle in play this afternoon, and note that this one's best effort came over a glib surface. #5 TWELTH MAN outran his odds when closing out the triple first out, and makes sense once again.  NOTE: AS OF 2:36 P.M. THURSDAY WE HAVE FLIP FLOPPED OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  2

1.Inclunation

2.True Blue Giant

3.My Amanjena

#1 INCLUNATION was a daylight clear runner up at this level last time out, and although this one is a nibblah by rote, we're assuaged by the fact that 16% clan clicks at a 44% rate ( 9:4-1-1-2 ) when cutting back dirt runners at this level who were ITM less than 32 days ago ( 6-1 or under ). The winners paid $3, $8, $12 & $13, and this one has done okay going two turns to one in the past. #5 TRUE BLUE GIANT will be brought over by a shotcaller who has won with half of his six mid level dirt animals going from a route to a sprint that were I.T.M. 31 days ago or less ( $11, $7, $10 & $9 ). Gelding's best work has come right here. #6 MY AMANJENA is conditioned by an hombre who ( from an itty bitty survey ) is two of five w/runners fitting this criteria ( $21 & $5 ).  NOTE: AS OF 2:37 P.M. THURSDAY WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 11:46, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Little Song

2.Diamond N Simon

3.Gilda Marie

#6 LITTLE SONG was extremely disappointing under a vigorous Carol Cedeno ride at Penn National @ the end of January, but gal had gone back to back just prior to that and deserves another shot in a wide open event. Meeeeekest of choices. #4 DIAMOND N SIMON was extremely game in securing place money in this race 23 days ago, and accomplished such at 25-1 odds. 12% Clarke just about doubles that batting average ( 12:3-4-0-3 ) w/allowance dirt dashers who were in the money < 46 days back & are 25-1 or undah. #7 GILDA MARIE may perk up with today's blinker addition.  NOTE: AS OF 11:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Dancing Kiki

2.Mad for Fame

3.Bankers Daughter

These three and no more for all your rolling action. #7 DANCING KIKI ( no worse than 3rd here for all you show bettors ) is the most consistent runner of this bunch, and although there's nothing spectacular which aids us in leaning this way, we'll give her top billing because of the overall body of work. #5 MAD FOR FAME showed little in the bow, but there's been a bullet gate move since that day, and we always pay close attention to those. #2 BANKERS DAUGTER apparently hated the goo on National Hangover Day after showing nice improvement in the secondary start, and while that gives a little pause for cause, we'd be remiss in excluding. 

 

Race  5

1.Heartstrings

2.Orbilicious

3.Remembering Bobbie

#10 HEARTSTRINGS has been off since just before turkey time, and although this one has been a bit erratic in regards to her placings ( 8th, 4th, 9th & 1st ), the speed figures have been fairly consistent ( 52-53-57-57 ), and this one was last seen in an event where nine returnees amassed a cumulative 3 for 9 record ( from eight different outings ). New trainer owns a tidy 2 for 3 mark when being handed a runner and spotting them in a claiming event ( < 500 days ). If you can see your way clear of the pre & post layoff running lines of the #8 ORBILICIOUS ( which we often do in order to find a price ), then what you have are a few solid efforts last year -- all over this oval. #12 REMEMBERING BOBBIE only regressed a few points when facing winnahs for the first time, and has dangerous speed from this outside slot.  

 

Race  6 

1.No Distortion

2.Hawaiian Noises

3.Preamble

#8 NO DISTORTION has only beaten two home in his last troika, but in all fairness, two of those were stakes, and he won in a near identical spot just prior to that. This one may be a bit of an overlay. #4 HAWAIIAN NOISES drops down 10K after besting slightly tougher and digs the trip & strip; logical. #2 PREAMBLE has never been entered this cheaply in 3rd off the break here. 

 

Race  7

1.Possetizzly

2.Bustin Hoffman

3.Papa Jim

#2 POSSETIZZLY more than outran his parimutuel offering when completing the triple in his first start off the bench two fortnights ago and rates the slightest of edges in a race that's difficult to decipher. #6 BUSTIN HOFFMAN owns an 8:2-3-2-1 mark over a fast track ( 4:0-0-0-0 otherwise ) and was a gamely runner up in this race four weeks back; logical once again. #9 PAPA JIM hasn't faced the starter in more than half'a year after the maiden breaker at Big Sandy, but chestnut runner has been tightened up for today's comebacker ( 1:01 & 3/5th's from the gate & a 59 & 3 bullet ) and has to be left in the mix. 

 

Race  8 

1.Hay Field

2.Kept True

3.Cash Offer

#4 HAY FIELD is about as popular an item at the claim box as there can be, as this gritty gal has changed addresses after each of her last six calls to the post. Seven year old has a scintillating 12:6-4-0 ledger in Queens, has partaken in the exacta in 2/3rd's of her career outings, and drops 5 lb.'s off a score -- which we always dig. Grand salami well within reach in the day's feature. #5 KEPT TRUE owns that sort of "declining" record that we love to see ( 9:4-2-1 ) as it tells us us she has a honker for the line, and we like her ability to send or rate just a bit. #2 CASH OFFER has hit the board in ten straight, having led at the start in nine of them, and while one may think "What's not to like here?", this one is toting her highest impost to date today ( 124 pounds ). 

 

Race  9 

1.Queenofeverything

2.Let's Maga

3.Miss Jill

#9 QUEENOFEVERYTHING has lost ground in the lane in each and every start to date, but is 3rd off the layoff today, drops 64 ounces, and finds herself at her lowest level to date. Bond has A View to a Kill when it comes to his dirt maidens returning in 48-50 days at 14-1 pr less, as he's a poyfect 4 of 4 in that regards. May go all the way today. #6 LET'S MAGA drops in class and makes her second start off the shelf here; another speedy sort, and we're hoping she doesn't get hooked up w/the above. #10 MISS JILL adds blinks and catches a fast strip for just the 2nd time; eligible to make the triple juicy.  NOTE: AS OF 11:49 DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

  


Aqueduct  ( Winter Meet ):      43-286     ( $409.40 )   Beatable  Favorites  3-11  ( 27.3% )     Favorites Win %:   115-286 ( 40.2% ) ( As of Saturday morning )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-403  ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 138-403 (34.2%)  +/-: -31.6% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2444-11991 ($20,492.10) Beatable Favorites : 335-1204( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4575-12094 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.5%  against a 16.5% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2529-12560 ($21,311.30)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4738-12681 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.4% takeout


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