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Want to thank those who lended their support throughout the NHC Championships in Las Vegas last week. We finished 25th of 700 ( est. ), cashing out for $14,300, and were also presented a $5,500 check for finishing 14th on the NTRA/NHC tour ( of 3,761 participants ). Factor that in with a $3,350 check for winning the Monmouth tourney a couple'a weeks back, and THREE wins/NHC seats in a 25 days span, and we're starting out the year on a great note !

Closed out the week right here with a $30 winner as well, so let's keep the ball rolling in that regards as well.  


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #1 Lucky Move


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 2/14 - Happy St. Valentine's Day

 

Race  1

1.Micromillion

2.I'm Fine

3.Wear My Ring

#5 MICROMILLION has hit the board in all three starts to date, is decently bred for today's initial stretchout, and T.P. wipes the competition clean with second off the L/O maiden special weight dirt stayers who hit the board last time out & are < 5-1 today ( 3YO's ). The ROI for that sampling is more than three bucks, as he's 10:7-3-0 in that regards. #3 I'M FINE completed the superfecta in her first off the first off the layoff/first time dirt try, and gets a jockey upgrade this afternoon. #2 WEAR MY RING was a stumblin' and a bumblin' first time out, but 382 Tomlinson tells us that there's some room for improvement today. 

 

Race  2

1.Curlin Road

2.Lucky Ramsey

3.Candy Promises

We have three decent sets of DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em. #7 CURLIN ROAD will be led over by a 19% shotcaller who owns an 8-17 mark with locally based mid level dirt animals below 7-1, off absences of 51-59 days, and there's an R.O.I. of more than $3 for that study. #3 LUCKY RAMSEY: Barker ( 13% on the norm ) is 4-10 with Aqueduct based runners of this ilk off of sabbaticals of 51-87 days ( $9, $18, $6 & $14 ). #6 CANDY PROMISES: Atras ( from a small survey ) is two of four with first off the claim mid level dirt stock below 7-1 ( 40-50 days ) with both winners paying four bucks, and there's a sub category of 1-1 right here. Note that this one has hit the board in both "3rd off the break" tries.  NOTE: AS OF 2:20 P.M. THURSDAY WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  3

1.Kilmarknock

2.Superego

3.Stash My Money

#7 KILMARKNOCK showed stark improvement from the first start to the next, and Falcone is no snowman with his dirt routers who were ITM 16-50 days back & are 5-1 or lower ( $3, $4, $9 & $7 ). #6 SUPEREGO has shown very little in both starts to date, but posted his best workout to date after the most recent, and there's decent pedigree in the family tree for today's initial route attempt. #5 STASH MY MONEY improved by about 20% in the lone 1X to 2X try and may jazz things up a bit. 

 

Race  4 

1.Black Kettle

2.Gracetown

3.Figure It Out

#2 BLACK KETTLE was visually impressive in winning at first asking down in Maryland, and exits an uuber key race, as four returnees from that day have amassed a cumulative 4:3-1-0 mark in their subsequent outings, with ALL of them improving in the speed figure department, and they did such by an average of 12 points. #3 GRACETOWN had positively no excuse in the most recent, but looking at past history, this one climbed the Beyer ladder over four straight starts before flopping, then over five straight starts before flopping again. Would not be surprised to see a good one here. #1 FIGURE IT OUT is in extremely good form these days and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon. 

 

Race  5

1.All About Reyana

2.Quantum Computing

3.Sapucaia

#4 ALL ABOUT REYANA was a well beaten but well clear runner up in a strung out field last time out, and $10,000 auction purchase drops a bunch off that effort. Persaud doesn't win much ( 5% ) but he does exceptionally well with maiden claiming dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta less than two fortnights ago & are below the 12-1 watermark today, as he's 4 fer 9 w/that type ( $6 x 2, $7 & $24 ). #5 QUANTUM COMPUTING has been beset by two layoff lines after as many outings, but Gargan has a tight 3 for 8 ledger with 2nd off the snag sand sprinters in the 59-139 day bracket at 9-1 or lower. Pre-layoff pilot returns, which is something we always like to see, as it shows nothing untoward occurred in their last pairing. #1 SAPUCAIA hasn't shown much in the mornings for today's overture, but the 443 Tommy leaps right off the page, and this one was dropped by a 1-4 sprinter on the dirt ( 52K ), and is a full to a 1 for 10 runner doing the same. Could land a share.

 

Race  6 

1.Stay Fond

2.Zecha

3.Saratoga Style

#5 STAY FOND essentially went coast to coast like butter and toast on New Year's Eve Eve, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. Despite having kept this one in jail, baby Englehart steps this one up in class, and ( from a minuscule sampling ) owns a 4:2-1-0 ledger with freshly purchased dirt runners at this level who scored 28-50 days back ( $8 x 2 ). Hat trick well within reach, especially given the 7 for 16 mark @ the trip ( 0-14 otherwise ). #2 ZECHA ( 2-11 at this locale...1-19 at other venues ) has improved over his last quartet, culminating with a lifetime best fig when finishing directly behind a next out winner. #7 SARATOGA STYLE as bad as any for the show dough. 

 

Race  7

1.The Great Johanna

2.Am Impazible

3.Mary's Girl

Jimmy Ferraro has done a fantastic job with the #2 THE GREAT JOHANNA. After showing some promise as a three year old, she flipped in the paddock at Saratoga that summer, doing a nice little number on her back. Old school trainer took his time bringing her back to the races, and it has most assuredly paid off, as aside from a poor ride in the return, this miss has gone 7:3-1-3 in '19 & '20, banking more than 140 large in the process. Not quite understanding how they came up with a one point reduction in the Beyer department for the recent score, as the time was 1.68 seconds faster over a track just as deep as the prior outing, and she did it with ease, but whatever, man. Slimmest of margins in an extremely competitive event. #7 AM IMPAZIBLE has gotten better and better in going back to back & deserves respect here. #8 MARY'S GIRL tries hard every single time, and don't hold it against her for being a nibblah, as in EIGHT of her ten placings, she ran BETTER than her odds. Best work has come right here ( 5:2-1-0 over a fast track ) and would be no surprise if she triples her auction price in the earnings department this afternoon.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 LUCKY MOVE 

 

Race  8 

1.Durkin's Call

2.Castle Casanova

3.Kosciuzko

#4 DURKIN'S CALL has done fine work over this oval, but more importantly, Mott id a saucy six for eight with Ozone Park based optional sprinters on the dirt who were 1-2-3 22-50 days back, and there's a substantial positive return on investment in that area. #7 CASTLE CASANOVA hasn't been seen in quite some time, but four year old has never missed a superfecta, and 'Miah owns a lively 5-10 mark with optional dirt horsies who got their photo taken 51-131 days in the rear ( $10, $6 x 2, $4 & $2 ). #3 KOSCIUSKO completed the exacta in his lone foray off the pine.

 

Race  9 

1.Tipazo

2.Uncle Ned

3.John Want Revenge

#2 TIPAZO has most definitely figured things out of late, having hit the board in four straight, increasing in the speed figure dept. along the way. Gelding has outran his odds in each, and Friedman ( who wins just 7% of the time ) is a jazzy 5:3-2-0 with locally based maiden claiming dirt dashers who crashed the party less than 40 days ago & are 5-1 or lower. The winners came back $9, $6 & $8, and of course, we love the draw. #8 UNCLE NED cuts back, drops down, and sheds some poundage. Numbers say this one belongs. #5 JOHN WANT REVENGE totes the lightest impost of his working life and may spice things up underneath.   NOTE: AS OF 11:31, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

   


Aqueduct  ( Winter Meet ):      41-277     ( $384.70 )   Beatable  Favorites  3-10  ( 30.0% )     Favorites Win %:   114-277 ( 41.2% ) 


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-403  ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 138-403 (34.2%)  +/-: -31.6% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2444-11991 ($20,492.10) Beatable Favorites : 335-1204( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4575-12094 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.5%  against a 16.5% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2529-12560 ($21,311.30)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4738-12681 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.4% takeout


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